Please click the link to listen to the 61st episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week’s episode examines the key concept of ownership or possession (the same thing) in the cryptocurrency space.
If you’ve spent any time at all focused on cryptocurrencies then you’ve very likely encountered the statement, ‘Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto.’ However, this truth bears repeating, reflection and if necessary, action.
A Few Caveats
If you only have a small position in crypto amounting to less than 1% of your liquid net worth then parking it on an exchange doesn’t really matter.
In addition, if you are a frequent trader a certain percentage of your assets are inevitably going to be locked up in orders and open positions. Of course, if that’s more than roughly 10-15% of your trading account -you’re exposing yourself to unnecessary counter-party risk.
Also, if you are not currently tech-savvy enough to move your funds off an exchange – take some time, seek some help and move your crypto as soon as you are comfortable doing so (the sooner the better).
‘Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto.’
Getting your hands on crypto is rarely easy, it is a friction-rich experience. There are many steps to take before you can even claim to own any cryptocurrency. Research, signing up to an exchange, going through KYC, learning to navigate an order book, setting up a wallet, backing up that wallet, sending your first transaction, trying not to freak out when you see the words ‘unconfirmed’ and on and on it goes.
Many people seem to make it only as far as an exchange. They buy but don’t take possession. While this takes some of the friction out of the user experience, it also critically undermines the whole appeal of crypto. To be absolutely clear – the cryptocurrency on an exchange is not under your control – it is simply an IOU by a third party. The balances you see are entirely under their jurisdiction. Indeed, your very access to those balances is something they may choose to cut off if, and when, the exchange deems it in their own interest to do so.
At any time, their circumstances may change – they may go out of business, be hacked, simply exit scam you, or be shut-down by some regulatory authority. Were any of these to occur you are likely out of luck. Sure, large exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase are more robust than their lesser peers but the fundamental reality of the IOU nature of their relationship with their customers remains the same.
This helplessness is highly ironic given the incredible freedom possession of an asset like Bitcoin imparts. You are essentially forfeiting the trustless, uncensorable quality of BTC for what exactly….oh yeah the false comfort of a third party holding your asset for you…like a bank might do…except crypto exchanges are much more unstable than even their banking counterparts…here today, gone tomorrow.
Not your keys, Not your crypto. Not simply a slogan but a fact.
Today I would like to do a fun little exercise. Well, I think it’s fun because I’m a crypto lover. If you don’t like crypto, then you should probably stay well clear of my blog!
I spoke about the silliness of altcoin bashing last week, so I’m not going to delve into that again. Suffice to say: I believe in the cyclic nature of markets, and that altcoins will rise again. There ARE signs that that rise has started (meaning that altcoins have bottomed), but that has yet to be confirmed.
For today’s exercise I’m going to look at the following hypothetical situation:
Say I put $100 into the top 20 altcoins. What would they all be worth if they then got back to their All Time Highs?
I will be using the CoinGecko top 20. I know that most people prefer CMC, but I like the added functionality that CoinGecko offers. For example: with CoinGecko I can easily see how far each coin is from its All Time High (ATH).
From https://www.coingecko.com/en?view=all_time_high
Below is a table which I constructed to display those figures. Remember, in each case we are investing $100 at current prices, and then seeing what will happen if that coin gets back to its ATH.
1
BTC
$214,59
2
ETH
$800,00
3
XRP
$1 162,79
4
BCH
$1 315,79
5
USDT
$132,28
6
LTC
$613,50
7
EOS
$694,44
8
BNB
$194,17
9
BSV
$199,20
10
XLM
$1 265,82
11
ADA
$2 857,14
12
TRX
$1 219,51
13
XMR
$862,07
14
LEO
$200,80
15
OKB
$168,07
16
LINK
$168,92
17
HT
$156,99
18
ATOM
$206,19
19
NEO
$1 785,71
20
IOTA
$1 960,78
It’s true that one shouldn’t read too much into this: the playing field is not entirely level (for reasons such as some coins only being launched after the peak of the bull market). But what it does serve as is a semi-standardised benchmark indicator of potential ROI.
Yes, we all know that BTC is safer than altcoins, but I personally believe in chasing some higher potential ROI at the expense of a little more risk, and even a little bit of extreme ROI at the expense of massive risk. Note: being the top 20 coins, this table does not represent the “massive risk” section of the market – well….. that’s debatable, we’ll get back to that shortly.
Those are the numbers, the raw stats. Let’s now dig into them a little deeper:
At a mere $214.59 return on a $100 investment, BTC looks positively pedestrian when compared to the average – and it is. This is the entire point of investing in altcoins instead of in BTC, that and helping many small projects to become part of our everyday lives – thereby greatly enhancing them.
However, and this applies to all the coins, these returns are only to get back to ATH. They do not include further market growth beyond that point! Only the staunchest bears would believe that BTC has already reached its ultimate ATH. Another term for such people is “idiots who should be ignored”. As the ultimate crypto store of value, I believe that every portfolio should have BTC in it. I would consider 10-20% to be a good figure, though that is largely down to personal taste (and my own percentage is way outside that bracket at the moment!)
Moving lower down the table we see ETH returning $800. Wow, that’s really not a bad potential investment! Ethereum remains the biggest and most popular crypto platform by far, and it is really the only one with many high quality DApps already running on it. No, your 100 casino DApps on your favourite chain are not “high quality”. Even NEO – and you all know how much I love NEO – can boast only a small handful of good DApps at this stage. But Ethereum has hundreds of them, even if it is also packed full of trash coins which should, and probably will, die. The ETH team is also still very active and the platform continues to be developed, albeit that it misses target dates almost as badly as Cardano does! In summary, Ether is a fairly secure investment with possibly much higher returns than what BTC can offer.
You all know my feelings on Ripple. I mean XRP. I mean Ripple. Apparently XRP is Ripple when Ripple does good things such as forming major partnerships; but XRP is not Ripple when Ripple is criticised for e.g. being centralised or being a company full of ex-bankers. Oh how I hate Ripple and everything it stands for! BUT: like most dodgy investments, Ripple still has a LOT of support. I do not doubt that Ripple will once again see very good returns when the market runs. However, I could never condone investing in such centralised, anti-Satoshi rubbish – so if you want to hold Ripple, then you will be doing so without my support! The returns you may get on Ripple are better than those of ETH, but I would chose to put my money on ETH instead!
BCH and LTC remain viable alternatives to BTC, especially for smaller transactions. I believe that there is a strong future for such coins, a future in which BTC is the store of value, and such coins (you can add DASH, NANO etc to the mix) become the de facto mediums of exchange. It is interesting that BCH offers far higher returns than LTC when looking at their respective ATHs. I surmise that this may be because people once perceived BCH as possible legitimate competition for BTC, whereas LTC was only ever a coin that worked alongside BTC. The two coins are pretty even in my eyes.
Note Tether sitting between BCH and LTC, with a possible return of $132.28! I find that rather amusing!
At $694.44 EOS is not looking as good as ETH. This should serve as a mild warning to EOS investors. I have long said that EOS is good, but over-hyped. I stand by that statement.
At $194.17, BNB is deceptive. As far as exchanges go, Binance is by far the most well known. Crucially, its ROI to ATH is less than that of BTC, which on its own should make the decision to buy BTC instead of BNB a simple one. But BNB is a special case, and I caution against writing it off. While my favourite exchange is KuCoin (and its KCS token), I can not ignore the fact that Binance is also launching programs, projects and platforms left, right and centre. It’s very popular and I have great faith in its CEO. CZ has a brilliant mind and a comprehensive understanding of blockchain technology, business principles, international affairs and also a general sense of what a powerful agent of positive change cryptocurrencies can become.
I assess that if any blockchain company can become the next “Amazon”, “Google” or “Microsoft”, then Binance has the best chance of being that company. It is even possible that as other cryptocurrencies grow, so Binance may one day pass even BTC in terms of market cap! Don’t laugh, just think about it…
BSV is a joke, as is Mr I-did-not-pay-now-I’m-back-in-court Faketoshi. It is sad that such people even exist, they are an ugly scar on the beautiful face of crypto. ‘Nuff said.
Of the top 10 coins, XLM offers the second best potential returns (after BCH) on its climb back to ATH. Personally I consider it a little over-valued, but I far prefer it to its greatly overvalued and far more dodgy cousin XRP.
With the best potential returns of the lot (an incredible $2857.14 for a $100 investment) ADA does look like a prime choice! However, I urge you to remember what I have often said: that US investors are too fixated on US crypto in general, and also that ADA is way behind where it should be: many promises, no deliveries. Other platform coins have since moved far past it, even if market cap has yet to catch up to that fact.
At $1219.51 for $100, TRX is looking strong! It’s not that high up that you would expect it to fall down the market cap ladder, the potential returns look good and Tron is a good product. True, like most of the platforms, it also lacks a large number of good DApps – but those will probably come with time. Justin Sun is a dynamic young entrepreneur with enviable levels of charisma, I think there is a high chance that he will lead Tron to success.
XMR has been quiet lately, which is not always a good sign. But I still see Riccardo Spagni on every episode of “Magical Crypto Friends” and he still seems enthusiastic. While they still have issues to iron out, Monero remains the biggest name in privacy coins, and that is NOT something to ignore! A potential return of $862,07 to ATH is only slightly better than that of ETH, but one could argue strongly in favour of privacy coins, based on the way that crypto regulations are going. With exchanges blocking ZCash (which I no longer endorse), it is clear that privacy coins are a threat to the financial centres of the world. If they do succeed, then XMR may well be the most successful of them all.
LEO has a relatively low potential return (very similar to that of BTC), easily explained because it is so new. However, it is the coin of BitFinex, and I have no love for that exchange. I’m still waiting for the whole dodgy BitFinex/Tether monster to come tumbling down. I’m happy to have closed my account there a long time ago, and I have no intention of having anything further to do with that exchange. I suggest avoiding it.
OKB is the coin of another big exchange, though honestly it isn’t one of my favourites and there are other exchange coins which I would much rather hold. There’s nothing inherently wrong with it though, and like LEO, its price is not reflective of it’s potential, because it was only launched after the demise of the 2017/18 bull run.
To an impartial outside observer, the LINK figure of $168.92 should be very troubling! I keep saying that LINK is way too hyped at the moment. It’s possibly the most over-hyped cryptocurrency of all (at the moment). LINK is not a new coin and it’s not even a special coin in any way. Investors should be very worried that it is hovering so close to its ATH figure. I like LINK, but I would NOT buy it now!
HT is almost identical to OKB for the purpose of this post. I wouldn’t put money there.
ATOM has low returns back up to ATH. But Cosmos has been around since 2014 so it… wait. What’s that you say? Cosmos is a new coin? Oh yes, you’re right. Cosmos is a 2019 coin which (to me) looks remarkably similar to Blocknet (BLOCK) – a coin which has been around since 2014. Why is that relevant? Because BLOCK has a market cap that is more than 130 times smaller than that of very similar Cosmos. What does that mean? It means that ATOM is all new coin hype. No thanks.
NEO’s looking solid with a potential return of $1785.71 for its $100. It’s well known how much I love NEO, and with the current blockchain developments in China (which I have been predicting since the China FUD in 2017), I love it more than ever.
IOTA is a dark (and largely forgotten) horse, sitting at the bottom of the list, but with a figure of $1960.78 per $100 should it make it back to ATH. That’s the second highest in the table, and should not be ignored. I know there have been some criticisms of it, but I honestly haven’t looked deep enough into IOTA lately to know if they are valid or not. As with everything in crypto – you should do your own research.
Conclusion
I believe that good altcoins (note: GOOD altcoins) stand to provide much better returns than Bitcoin will in the near future. Of course with the chance of greater returns comes greater risk. How much risk you are willing to expose yourself to will depend largely on your investing style and current financial situation – I recommend being safe rather than sorry. Having said that, the mere fact that somebody chooses to invest in crypto indicates that they probably have a pioneering spirit (it’s still early days for crypto) and personally I already see BTC as a minor “risk”. If BTC works, then it’s logical that altcoins should work too, thus I invest a decent amount of money in them. As of yesterday, 43.2% of my crypto portfolio is in Bitcoin, which is actually almost the highest percentage it has ever been, a consequence of me holding my alts through the bear market.
I continue to invest slowly and carefully, some in BTC, some in altcoins (though I also keep missing the dips!). In the long-term I believe that altcoin investors will be richly rewarded, and I will continue to invest accordingly. Remember that the table above only deals with the top 20, there are many more coins out there. I suggest that people do their best to make decisions based on facts as opposed to emotional attachment. Crypto is often a sentiment game, but sentiment can’t keep a coin going indefinitely.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Last week’s price action was a bit of a tease though trading volumes have remained somewhat elevated. Price lacks direction but sentiment has shifted bullish. All that’s required is another catalyst. Whether that transpires or not in the near term is, of course, impossible to know. However, China’s apparent embrace of blockchain has certainly ignited the crypto space with many a competing narrative hashing it out on Twitter and beyond.
My own take – this is all good for Bitcoin as centralized blockchain(s) can only ever be good for the real thing. It’s likely bearish for Chinese projects that aspire to be decentralized though bullish in the short-term for most China-based crypto. In the long term (a few years out), bearish for local projects barring the select few who ultimately receive government backing.
As to China’s intent – this is never in doubt – control and more of it – political, financial and social.
Investment potential and authoritarian intent are quite separate considerations…..and BTC could care less what any individual state actor desires.
Picks of the Week
Bitcoin as freedom in the making and outlining a new position between Alt-coiner and BTC Maximalist. This roundup of pending developments for Ethereum is another highlight.
A fascinating and challenging week. Lots to look forward to in the coming week/months/years. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
Please click the link below to listen to the 60th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto, today’s episode addresses the financial elephant in the crypto room – gains. Let’s be blunt – 90% of people who first come to crypto do so because of the lure of monetary gain. Sure, some folks find their way to the space because of a prior interest in Libertarianism, financial systems, tech or the nebulas intersection of all three. This path, however, is the exception to the ‘looking for sick gainz’ entry point.
Blockchain has become popular precisely because it has been proven to offer spectacular returns on investment over time or more accurately investment in Bitcoin has offered stupendous returns over the long-term. Year after year it has printed higher highs and higher lows. A popular meme for BTC is ‘Number go up.’ Number go up is powerful juju. Naturally, investors have been attracted by the allure of huge gains.
Those profits remain a possibility but anyone who has spent more than a few months engaged with crypto can attest to the very real downsides that prevail throughout the crypto market. If your approach to the space is to seek out hidden gems and the like, in truth, you are much more likely to lose money than make it. Unfortunately, far too many investors glance at the current price of Bitcoin and come to the entirely mistaken conclusion that value can only be found elsewhere leading to a focus on Alts in all their shiny glory. In fact, BTC has out-performed all other cryptos through time if you measure their performance over a multi-year horizon. A belief that BTC has topped out is simply a reflection of a very surface understanding of the disruptive potential of Bitcoin.
The likelihood of losing money also applies to the large-cap projects – unless you are willing to hold for years.
And this is the key point – there are no reliably sick gainz in crypto unless you are willing to weather the storm of crypto volatility and hold for the long-term. Long term means many years – not one, two or even five but closer to a decade and beyond. This market is plagued by short-term perspectives, hyperbole, and flat-out lies. It’s all going to take time and a lot of it. Sure, you might be lucky and pick a winner that increases 800% in two weeks but you can pursue such luck just as efficiently at a casino or the racecourse. If you are serious about building wealth through crypto investing -shed the rose-tinted glasses -take your time, do your research, make your investments and let them play out for a decade or so.
Well it’s been quite a week for crypto! After too many months of no significant action, things are (finally) starting to come to a head. I’ll briefly discuss the highlights by fitting them in under the simple headings of “Bitcoin” and “Altcoins”.
Bitcoin
The recent Bitcoin price dip to below $7500 was not a surprise. I, like many other analysts, both expected it and welcomed it as a buying opportunity. Most of us (myself included) expected it to dip further. Indeed, I had yet to have a buy order fill (silly me). What we didn’t expect was a rapid BTC rise. Twice.
That the reason for those rises is still open to debate, indicates that (as usual) nobody REALLY knows the real reason behind them. Bullish sentiment appears to be partly from short squeezes, but mainly from FOMO about pro-blockchain comments made by Chinese president Xi Jinping. No doubt the full story is more complex than that, but FOMO never bothers with getting all the facts.
Despite the rapid rise, a little messing around on my charts reveals that BTC MAY still be in a descending channel.
I emphasise that this is just a theory, but I wouldn’t rule it out. My gut feel (which is often wrong when it comes to crypto) suggests that prices may yet again dip lower in the channel. I still believe that BTC has to reach the vicinity of its long-term trendline (approximate position indicated below) before it can begin to climb properly. Granted: the exact position of that trendline is hardly cast in stone.
The massive volume increase which followed the Bitcoin price rise is indicative of just how much (dumb) money is just waiting in the wings – waiting for some sort of confirmation that bitcoin is not going
to crash to zero before it decides to invest.
Altcoins
I have never been impressed by the altcoin bashing that has been so prevalent ever since the Bitcoin Maximalists greatly and suddenly multiplied in number starting in mid-2018. I consider altcoin bashing to be rather immature and short-sighted. As sure as my name is Bit Brain, most of the altcoin bashers will flip and become some of the biggest pro-altcoin campaigners when altcoin season returns.
Altcoin season has threatened to return on several occasions, though we have no positive confirmation of that happening yet. Of course there will always be isolated instances, such as Chainlink which is doing
very well at the moment. I can only shake my head in dismay as I see the Chainlink supporters declare their coin to be bulletproof and capable of decimating all the others. Guys – Chainlink is good, but it REALLY isn’t
anything super-special!
Before I get too far off-topic, I think that altcoin season WILL return very shortly, and I strongly suggest (as I have been doing for over a year now!) that investors stock up on all the ridiculously, laughably, insanely, insert-superlative-herely cheap altcoins that are currently available.
This last year has given us considerable new insight into the possible long-term nature of BTC dominance (seen below). It appears that BTC dominance will probably cease to increase now, freeing up a lot of money to be invested in altcoins.
From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts; modified by Bit Brain
The SHITPERP Index (that’s a real thing, I promise) which tracks the performance of selected altcoins is indicating the same thing. It’s chart shows a double-bottom, indicative of a transition from losing value to gaining value.
President Xi Jinping’s comments (referenced earlier) seem to be having a direct effect on Chinese coins. I have noticed my beloved NEO doing exceptionally well ever since BTC took-off this weekend. The same applies to some of my other Chinese coins such as Ontology (ONT) and THEKEY (TKY). I have been saying for a LONG time that Chinese altcoins is where the smart crypto money should be. I’m sticking to that.
China definitely seems to be looking more blockchain friendly than both the US and the EU at the moment. Combined with their rise to global economic and military dominance (sorry USA, that is happening), I’m feeling VERY good about my Chinese altcoin investments.
BUT:
Note that Xi Jinping is talking about BLOCKCHAINS, not cryptocurrencies! I honestly think that the Chinese crypto hype is premature. Sure, it’s a GREAT idea to get in very early at ultra-low prices, but I don’t think that the current FOMO wave is thinking along those lines; they’re just thinking “China” = “pro-crypto” = “Chinese crypto to the Moon”; which is not necessarily the case. Chinese authorities appear to want blockchain tech that they can control, that’s NOT crypto!
It is however true that Xi Jinping is a visionary and that he knows the importance of not getting left behind in the blockchain race. In the long-run I believe that China will come around to the realisation that decentralised blockchains are the ones that work best and that centralised ones (like many reserve banks are currently investigating, or like Zuckerberg’s shitcoin extraordinaire) are doomed to fail thanks to the transparency and forced accountability that blockchains offer. It’s worth remembering that the Chinese government has been trialling THEKEY for several months already. I also remind you that Da Hongfei got WAY ahead of the game and helped China develop Chinese blockchain regulations about two years ago – regulations he built NEO (and by extension, Ontology too) around…
Looking to the future of alts, my crypto investing suggestions remain unchanged:
1) Good Chinese coins (NEO is still by far the best example, but others (e.g. VeChain) – are also worthy of consideration)
2) Good Exchange coins (My best bets are: Binance (BNB), KuCoin (KCS) and Nash Exchange (NEX) – all of which I have referral links to in my signature block)
3) Good Platform coins (you guessed it: NEO again! Other coins that I would recommend in this category are EOS, Ether (ETH), Ontology (ONT), Tron (TRX) and Holochain (HOT).
4) Other coins which have good use cases, especially the neglected ones which have survived the extremely harsh altcoin winter. Yes, I STILL love CargoX (CXO) (check them out at www.cargox.io and tell me what’s NOT to like!), but there are many others such as Kyber (KNC), Enjin coin (ENJ), UTrust (UTK), TenX (PAY), Worldwide Asset Exchange (WAX), OmiseGo (OMG) – too many to list. Just remember: “Favourite” does not equal “Good”!
Final Word
To my fellow NEO investors, it’s good to see NEO getting some LONG overdue attention, but be prepared for the FOMO-turns-to-FUD price drops which are sure to come. Like most good investments, NEO’s strength will lie in its long-term performance.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
Featured image in the public domain. Sourced from https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-over-9000
All uncaptioned charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Now that got our collective attention, didn’t it? China seems to have put a rocket under crypto – let’s see whether this massive price surge has any staying power. Closing above the 200-day moving average would seem to suggest so.
Lots to share this week – I could have tagged the majority of this recap ‘highly recommended’ from reflections on censorship resistance to a discussion of Bitcoin Maximalism and a whole lot in between.
Perhaps it’s worth restating that the goal of this series is to highlight the developments and narratives that comprise this space. News per se is not the focus but rather broader trends, tech, debates, and discussions.
Picks of the Week
Charles Hoskinson on crypto is a rabbit hole you will benefit from going down. This analysis of Bakkt’s underwhelming performance to date is also well worth checking out as is this article on the true value of crypto.
Once again, I learned a lot this week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
PPT seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the price has made a throwback to the resistance previously broken during the movement occurred in October 2019, the price has tested the area very well and the candle is showing a strong momentum of more than 20%, we can also see how the candle is so far above the support located at 0.00005310, indicated in the chart above by the horizontal black color, this is a key level of reclaim, if the price manages to close this way, it is very possible that we will see a next impulse towards our profit target located within the price range of 0.00007213 – 0.00007774, within that area the price could find strong resistance that makes the price fall.
PPT seen from the temporality of 4H, we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, where we see the momentum that has taken the price after testing the diagonal and enter the 1D demand zone, in this chart I just want to show the area of supply located at 0.00006561, indicated by the red horizontal color, this is an important supply level to take into account during the bullish movement, and is usually reversed once reached that level.
In conclusion, PPT shows a clean diagonal test so far, the current candle in 1D has found strong imposed, that if we manage to close above 0.00005310, it is very possible that we have a next bullish movement during the development of the current movement, however, if the price falls below the zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00004372 – 0.00004666, the price could go down in search of the bottom located at 0.00003438, with high probabilities of a greater reversal, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop loss in all your operations to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
AE seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe how the structure is forming a rounded floor, an upward pattern that should drive the price if we manage to stay above the zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00002114 – 0.00002248, indicated on the graph by the light blue rectangle, our first target profit is located within the price range of 0.00002748 – 0.00003145, this is an offer level where it is very possible that the price finds strong resistance and we have a correction towards the support delimited with the curvature of the rounded floor, the possible trajectory that the price could follow I have drawn in the chart above.
AE seen from the temporality of 4H, we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, the minor figure has formed an ascending wedge where the price has been contracting during its development, in the chart I have placed a yellow circle that indicates the important area to take into account during the next candles within this temporality, the price has to close tightly above the resistance of the figure so that we can reach our first target, otherwise the price could lean towards the theoretical target of this pattern and go in search of the first zone of demand in 1D.
In conclusion, the price has remained forming a series of HH and HL from the point where it found the support located at 0.00001760, until now has granted a 40% profit, which is something we must have very present to ensure our next move, for now the most advisable would be to wait for the reaction of the price in the resistance of the lower figure and look for some reversal in case of not closing up with sufficient force, always remember to place their stop loss in all their operations to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
Please click the link below to listen to the 59th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode is a little more personalized in tone and explores my own particular process of identifying the term which best exemplifies my crypto investment thesis.
If you’ve spent any time at all surveying the crypto landscape you’ve doubtless encountered the Alt Coiner – BTC Maximalist fault line. These two camps rarely have much good to say about each other though Bitcoin does generally seem to have the upper hand in any proof of concept argument. Regular listeners will know that I favour BTC over any other project in crypto. I won’t rehash this oft-stated position. However, I’m certainly not a BTC Maximalist – a crypto worldview I attempted to shed light on in last week’s episode.
As previously discussed, BTC accounts for approximately 70% of my crypto portfolio. It is also the only crypto I dollar-cost average into each and every week. Nonetheless, there are a number of Altcoin projects which I believe have obvious and sustainable potential – Ethereum, EOS and Cardano primary among them. In addition, I have a number of small positions in ‘wildcard’ projects such as Elastos, Nuls, NEO and others. Bitcoin Maximalist, therefore, is definitely not a good fit nor however, is Alt-Coiner. If I had to pick only one – it would be Bitcoin but, of course, I don’t. While I’m fairly confident BTC will remain unchallenged in terms of its claim as a store of value – blockchain offers so much more and there’s absolutely no proof that there, ‘can be only one.’
In pondering this I’ve finally decided on the nomenclature that correctly reflects my crypto investment thesis – I’m a Bitcoin Majoritarian. Yep, I just invented a word but I’m sure you get my meaning. The majority of my holdings are BTC. The majority of my future planned investments remain targeted on BTC. In addition, the majority of my time is spent researching BTC tech, developments, and market conditions – ergo I’m a BTC Majoritarian. Mostly Bitcoin but with a minority interest in other applications and iterations of crypto. So now I can rest easy and spend the next few years spreading BTC Majoritarianism to my heart’s content!
APPC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has remained following an excellent curvature, which represents a good sign of a close reversal of trend, the current series of candles has maintained a bullish movement from the double floor formed on 2 September 2019, the movement is being strongly supported by the RSI indicator, which shows bullish divergence, signaled within the indicator by a dark blue diagonal, the price could continue to rise from the current position to reach our first target profit located within the price range of 0 to reach our first target located within the price range of 0.00000758 – 0.00000929, indicated in the graph by the light blue rectangle, however, we could also have a backward movement close to the demand zone located at 0.00000333, indicated in the graph by the lower horizontal dark blue color before continuing towards our profit targets, in the graph I have traced through the drawing tool, the possible trajectory that the price should follow during its movement (the drawing only expresses the movement and not the time period).
APPC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the price has formed us 2 important HL after the double floor created in the zone of demand, this is a very good bullish signal, it is quite possible that this is the reason why we are currently seeing the formation of a symmetrical triangle that we can see in the chart delimited by the 2 dark blue diagonals, the price should continue to move within this continuation pattern before the bullish break, the black arrow within the chart indicates the target that should reach the next impulse.
In conclusion, APPC has an excellent candlestick structure that should result in a next bullish move towards the price range of 0.00000758 – 0.00000929, currently the formation of the triangle should give rise to an HL close to the support of the figure, before looking for the break, the safest position would be after confirming the break of the pattern, in the 1W chart I have also placed the next gain target located at 0.00002194 and the third profit target located at 0.00003791 which should be long term objectives if the price maintains the trend, for the moment I recommend to be very attentive to the development of the price within the lower figure to look for the best position in the long run, always remember to place stop loss in all your operations to avoid the possible invalidations during the movement.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
In summary, Ether is a fairly secure investment with possibly much higher returns than what BTC can offer.
