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Currency Analysis Report 10/13/19 – Rough Week For The US Dollar

October 13, 2019 Published by

Not only is the world’s
currency the US dollar, but it’s one of three safe haven currencies in the
world (the other two being the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen).  And as long as the US economy grows, relative
to other economies and US interest rates remain positive and/or higher relative
to other central banks around the world, the US dollar should continue to
appreciate.

However, late last week we received news regarding the US-China trade talk that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to reach an agreement with the United States to minimize further escalation in trade tariffs. The feeling appeared to be mutual by Trump going into the discussions,

 which was later followed up with Trump said his negotiators reached a “substantial phase-one deal” that will delay the implementation of more US tariffs on Chinese imports. On the news the dollar’s weakness ignited a rally in the euro with the single currency rallying 0.5% to a two-week high. In addition, the British pound rallied after British and Irish leaders meet to have a treaty agreed to allowing the England to leave the EU in an orderly fashion by the end of this month.

As a result of good news on the US-China trade front and a potential amicable Brexit, the dollar had its biggest one day drop in five weeks late last week. So is this just the beginning of a bigger drop for the US dollar, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 101.50 and monthly demand is at 90.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggest it’s not time to go short the US dollar and to wait for price to hit 100.25.

However, if price breaches the 98.00 level, the chart could be suggesting to prepare to go short.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

October 12, 2019 Published by

Three weeks ago, I write a post titled,

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Roku remains one of the fastest growing leaders in video streaming technology. Roku has over 30 million active users, about 10% of U.S. TV viewers aged 18 to 34 are now on Roku and these users are consuming more than 9 billion hours on streaming content.

But wait, why is Roku down almost 40% since early Sept?

Apple announced it would be giving away a free year of its new Apple TV+ service to customers who purchase new Apple devices, Comcast Corp. said it will give out its Xfinity Flex streaming box for free to its Internet-only subscribers and Facebook Inc. launched its new Portal TV device.

Price is approaching the monthly demand at $95. The chart suggests to go long once price penetrates the monthly demand.

Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel.  If you know anything about Wall Street, then you have heard of hedge fund, Citadel.  The hedge fund manages close to $30 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.  

Image result for ken griffin

The guy is doing well for himself.  This past January, Ken bought a New York City apartment for $238 million.  But he felt he didn’t have enough space, so he also simultaneously purchased London mansion for $122 million.  Anyway back to the post as I got sidetracked by his wealth.  

A 13G filing or Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the 13D which must be filed by anyone who acquires ownership in a public company of more than 5% of the outstanding stock.  And according to a new 13G filing from hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors shows a new 5% stake in Roku Inc.

Macquarie upgraded Roku from Neutral to Outperform on Wednesday.  And on Friday RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Roku to an Outperform from Sector Perform, boosting his price target by $48 to $155.

I can’t say it enough, so I’m going to repeat what I said in a recent post.

Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. And simple put, they do the opposite of retail investors. For the most part, retail investors buy high and sell low, it’s usually the Smart Money on the other side of the trade who are selling high and buying low.

Taskmaster4450 talked about this yesterday in his post titled, Why There Is No Need For FOMO On Steem

The investing world is full of FOMO (fear of missing out) at times. It is what often drives markets, often to the point of insanity.

Investing is a zero-sum game, so it also drives retail investor to the poor house.

Why do you think Ken took a recent stake in Roku and Roku was upgraded by Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets?  It’s because there isn’t an ounce of FOMO in their blood and because Roku now selling at a discount.  Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Bitcoin Price Clears First Hurdle

October 10, 2019 Published by

Few days back we looked at bitcoin price as it neared the 7400 area again. Since then price got a boost and rallied with yesterday’s candle giving a nice push through the 8400 area, which is where price stalled out on the last bounce.

Ideal situation is we stay above 8400 before making a run at the prior support level of 9400. There are some prior tops from earlier in the year at 8700 as well so we could see some struggle there first.

Patience is Key

Downside remains the same. 7600 area is support. I’m not initiating any new positions here as the upside is nearly the same amount as the potential downside. Still holding my adds from the past couple weeks at 8400 and 7800. 9400 is my first profit target.

Atlantis Won’t Save Ethereum Classic

October 10, 2019 Published by

ETC is a cryptocurrency that was the result of a hard fork of the Ethereum network in July 2016. A “fork” is a change to the software of the digital currency that creates two separate versions of the blockchain with a shared history.

In May 2016, the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), lauched by the Ethereum community, went for a crowd token sale to fund its development. After raising $150 MM, a flaw in DAO’s code was exploited by attackers and more than $50 million was drained out of DAO’s funds. A hard fork, ETC was implemented on the Ethereum that made the hacked transaction invalid.

One of the main difference between Ethereum and ETC is the coin supply. Ethereum has a uncapped total, but fixed yearly supply. ETC is set to between 210 MM and 230 MM ETCs. Also, Ethereum is planning to move to proof of stake and ETC is not willing to make. It appears ETC doesn’t have the same size or engaged community like Ethereum based on DApps and ICO launchings. Lastly and probably most importantly, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has no intent of supporting ETC.

Atlantis was successfully implemented on the Ethereum Classic (ETC) blockchain earlier this month, bringing more compatibility with Ethereum (ETH). However, development on the ETC chain remains several months behind ETH, with very little activity over the past six months.

Source

As we all know communities are vital to the sustainability of a blockchain, but equally important, if not more important is the development taking place on a blockchain. Without development, a blockchain is sure to loss ground against other competing blockchain and is also guaranteed to loss its user base.

So where is price headed next, lets go to the charts to find out? Price as been hovering between $2 and $10 since the beginning of 2019.

However, the chart suggests price is heading down to the weekly demand at $2.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In SPDR Gold Shares ETF ,GLD

October 9, 2019 Published by

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver on “Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy.”  He reiterated and tried to assure the crowd that the economy remains strong and the Fed supports keeping the economic expansion going.

Image result for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver

Fed Powell also addressed the repo scare from a couple of weeks ago were overnight repo lending dried up.  Taskmaster4450le spoke about this today in his post title, 

Where Are People Going To Hide?

Turning to short-term funding markets, Powell said “a range of factors” might have caused the turmoil seen last month when the cost of short-term borrowing spiked as firms scrambled to get funding.

Regardless the cause, Powell said it was now time for the Fed to increase the size of its balance sheet. He said the central bank may purchase short-term Treasury bills.

Some analysts call this a “soft” form of quantitative easing, because the Fed buys these securities from the market, but Powell bristled at this description.

“I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase program that we deployed after the financial crisis,” he said.

Source

During the Great Recession QE is injected tons of money into the economy by buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities in hopes of jump starting the economy.  And we are still feeling the effects of QE from ten years ago because money poured into the stock market which has been artificially inflated throughout the years through all the buyback programs (Apple is one of the biggest culprit).  At some point, the bubble will pop, prices will fall and money will migrate in to precious metals (and potential cryptocurrencies).

According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed ETFs bought 75 metric tons of the gold worth almost $4 billion in September.  The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world’s largest and most liquid gold-backed fund, bought 43 tons more bullion during the 30 days.

This is the Smart Money directly at work and they are adding leverage to their investments/trades.  Today I noticed unusual options activity in GLD.   The Smart Money bought over 6000 call options with a strike price at $149 that expire in March 2020. 

This is on top of the 7000 call options they bought yesterday. 

I can’t say I have seen call options going out this far, but this trade set-up has plenty of time of being profitable as the chart suggests the next target for GLD is the $152.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

D.R.E.A.M – Dollars Rule Everything Around Me (Intermarket Analysis)

October 7, 2019 Published by

Intermarket analysis is a powerful tool that gives traders/investors a macro predictive direction of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Intermarket analysis states that all asset classes are interrelated and that you can’t definitively determine the direction of one asset class without examining the other asset classes.

There are several key relationships that bind these four markets together. These relationships include:

  • The INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds.
  • The INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks.
  • The POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities.
  • The INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities.

NOTE:

A rising Dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices because many commodities are priced in Dollars, such as oil. Bonds benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces inflationary pressures. Stocks can also benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces the costs for raw materials.

Gold is sort of a commodity.  It’s a hard asset and mined like any other metal.  However, it behaves more like a monetary asset, especially against the US dollar. As a rule, when the price of the US dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down and vice versa. However, while gold typically has an inverse relationship to the dollar, it’s not always the case.

The past year has been somewhat surreal in the gold market, as we have the rare occurrence of the dollar rising in somewhat slow fashion while gold bullion has appreciated about $300 per ounce to trade near $1,500. Historically, a rising dollar and rising gold bullion haven’t gone together, but the distortions that have come with global quantitative easing policies are to blame for the breakdown in this inverse relationship.

Moreover, if the Fed is cutting the fed funds rate and the European Central Bank is accelerating QE due to the bad economic numbers from the Old Continent, the dollar will not decline, as the interest-rate differentials are still in favor of the greenback.

Still, the excess reserves in the global financial system, which are a function of QE policies by the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Fed, are what has given gold enthusiasts the hope that we will make fresh all-time highs in gold bullion

Source

So this US Dollar and Gold correlation may last a bit longer as both have more room to the upside before hitting monthly supply zones, which means they could fall together as well once they both reach the monthly supply zones.

US Dollar

Gold

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: WXY Double Combo possible terminations zones

October 7, 2019 Published by

Long time since I posted my last post about BITCOIN , I think last time was on August 24th and I talked about the evolution of a complex WXY Double Combo correction.

Answering to a request of @beiker, I am going to show you what I think can be the possible scenario currently on-going.

The Y leg was in doubt that time, we were either thinking a possible triangular shape or a Flat configuration in order to end the wave II of BITCOIN.

However, it seems that the most likely, in my opinion, is a finalization of the correction by a FLAT configuration for the “Y” leg:

In my opinion, currently we have 2 possible termination areas probabilistically speaking:

  • The area around the 100% of the FIBO length of the wave “W”, corresponding to 7400 USD
  • The area around 5500 USD which is around the 127% of the FIBO length of wave W

Of course, the volume is so small that I would no enter in any LONG position till a clear increase of this variable will become a fact.

@toofasteddie

Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Bitcoin Making Us Sweat a Little Bit

October 7, 2019 Published by

At this point I don’t think anyone wants to see bitcoin break the 7,600 area support. There is alot of downside potentially from there and would mean a ton of buy order got eaten up.

So after Sunday’s down move we see price floating not far from that level today and it probably makes us all sweat just a little bit.

The good news is if price can hold this level again then it becomes a rather major support in the near-term and can act as a solid bottom for a potential run higher when bitcoin is good and ready.

When that is we can only guess. The 2020 halving could provide a catalyst as price runs up into it but that is still a ways off to expect it could happen now.

Forex Analysis Report – 10/6/19…More Downside Risk On USD/INR (Rupee), But First…

October 7, 2019 Published by

Last year, a deep
sell-off in emerging markets and a widening domestic fiscal deficit,
exacerbated by rising oil prices, pushed the rupee down nearly 9%.  This year, it’s the continued trade war
between the US and China that hurting the Indian economy and currency.  

India is taken a “any
means as necessary” approach in trying to help its stagnant economy.  For example, several weeks ago, India’s
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut to corporate tax rates for
domestic companies to 22%. The goal was to increase the profitability of Indian’s
publicly traded company and level the playing field of Indian companies competing
again companies in other countries with a similar tax structure.  However, when a country is trying to jumpstart
their economy, there is no better tool than to cut interest rates.

India’s central bank on Friday cut its benchmark repurchase rate for the fifth consecutive time this year as it continues a concerted push to reinvigorate a stuttering economy.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15% with five members of its Monetary Policy Committee voting in favor, versus one who backed a 40 basis point cut.

The decision came against a backdrop of weaker growth, a resurgence of financial stability risks and a surprise fiscal stimulus in the form of a recent corporate tax cut.

More aggressive policy moves are expected, however, with the economy having deteriorated for five consecutive quarters, most recently hitting a six-year low of 5% in the second-quarter of 2019.

Source

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is 73.500 and monthly demand is 63.500.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the price has reacted to both supply zones, and has the potential to go much lower, but the chart suggests price has to close below the pivot low for confirmation first that price will go a lot lower.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Binance Still Making Money Moves, But It’s Not Reflected In The Price

October 5, 2019 Published by

Earlier this year,
Binance, the leading global cryptocurrency exchange and ecosystem, launched
Binance DEX, a decentralized exchange running on the Binance Chain. In just a
few much, Binance DEX has become the world’s largest decentralized
exchange.   CEO Changpeng Zhao aka CZ
said with no central custody of funds, Binance DEX offers far more control over
your own assets.

The launch couldn’t come
any sooner because in May of this year, even the best and largest crypto
exchange in the world got hacked.  
Binance called the attack a “large-scale security breach,” in which
hackers stole 7,000 bitcoin which was about $40 million.

In an effort to boost the
selection of tokens available for trading on Binance DEX, their newest token,
the XRP-BF-2, backed by real XRP tokens was announced.

However, this isn’t about just giving XRP a Binance Chain wrapper. Ultimately, this is a necessary step to supporting XRP-backed pairs on Binance’s decentralized exchange. It’s unclear now which trading pairs will be supported given that the XRP-BF2 token is still in ‘testing.’

Binance has ported other cryptocurrencies to its chain in the past, as well. Most notably, BTCB was recently minted which represents BTC on Binance Chain. Each BTCB is backed by real BTC.

Binance claims that, by porting major cryptocurrencies onto Binance Chain, the ecosystem for its decentralized exchange (DEX) becomes that much larger. This way, you can trade BTC directly on Binance Chain rather than needing to go elsewhere.

Source

Recently the price on Binance breached the weekly demand at $16.50,

and in the process formed weekly supply at $23.00.  Thus, the chart suggest price is headed lower at least to the daily demand at $9.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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