Tag: scripsio

Just like Netflix disrupted the at home movie streaming market, Stitch Fix is disrupting apparel retail by allow you to choose your own clothes from a selection of clothing. Stitch Fix is your own stylist on a budget. They send you five items at a time based on an interface through which you select your style preferences, budget, and fit. Customers only pay for what they want to keep and return the rest for a service fee of $20 which goes towards the purchase.

Similar to Netflix who uses technology to get to know their customers, Stitch Fix has put their spin on technology as well with an interactive, mobile and web-based game with clients that we call Style Shuffle.

Stitch Fix was launched in 2011. The company has seen significant growth since, with 2.7 million customers and more than $1 billion in revenue. The person running Stitch Fix is founder Katrina Lake and is the youngest woman ever to take a company public.

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Stitch Fix’s debut on the stock exchange last November, with an opening price of $16.90. The stock more than double before settling back to the high $20s.  But since its existence the stock price has been more volatile than Elon Musk’s twits.

And Tuesday should be no different when they announce their fourth quarter earnings after the market close. According to The Motley Fool, the 3 things that investors should pay attention to are the following:

The biggest change Stitch Fix made in the fourth quarter was its May launch in the U.K., the company’s first foray into a foreign country.  On the third-quarter earnings call, shortly after the U.K. launch, CEO Katrina Lake sounded optimistic about the launch, saying “it seems like there is a lot of excitement from the [British] market” for Stitch Fix’s service. Look for commentary and updates on the U.K. business, as Stitch Fix’s results there will likely inform the brand’s ability to penetrate other international markets.

Despite the fact that Stitch Fix surged following its last two earnings reports, the stock is actually trading near all-time lows today. The most closely watched metric from the company has been revenue growth, the best indicator of the company’s ability to truly change how people shop for clothes.  Pay attention to the mix of revenue growth between new and existing clients in the upcoming report.

The most influential number in the earnings report, however, will likely be the company’s revenue guidance for fiscal 2020.  This time a year ago, management forecast adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $40 million for 2019, and the company is now targeting the high end of that range for the full year. With the investments to kick off the U.K. market now in the past, we could see a jump in adjusted EBITDA for 2020.

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But the Smart Money is not having any of that.  On Monday they bought over 5,000 put options with a $14 strike price that expire on Friday. 

With price at $19, that represents a potential 26% decline in price, but if they are right, the trade would be worth up to 500% – 700% return.  And it would mean breach the weekly demand at $19 as well.

Will the Smart Money be right, we shall find out Tuesday?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

I wrote about UnitedHealth Group earlier this year.  UnitedHealth Group is one of the largest health-insurance providers services roughly 50 million people with revenue of $226.2 billion last year. It also operates physician practices, sells consulting and data services, and administers drug benefits.

One of the major themes going into the 2020 presidential, at least by the Democrats will be the “Medicare for All” proposals. For example, earlier this year, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is calling for government-run health care as a way of covering more people.  He’s even singled out UnitedHealth saying their greed would soon end.

But the chart suggested to go long UnitedHealth at the weekly demand at $210.

Price did eventually react to the weekly demand at $210, hit the target at weekly supply zone at $270.  But because the $270 was a level that contained a stack of unfilled sell orders, that level the chart also suggested to short price gain with the target being at the weekly demand at $210 again.

In mid-Sept, the “Medicare for All” theme went front and center when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi unveiled her bill that would allow the federal government to negotiate the prices of up to 250 brand-name drugs in Medicare that do not have competitors and the negotiated prices would be available to all purchasers, not just Medicare beneficiaries.  In addition, the bill would also cap seniors’ out-of-pocket prescription drug costs at $2,000 a year.  And all though Nancy is trying to impeach Trump, Trump actually supports Nancy’s bill.  So if Trump gets impeached which he won’t and if the Democrats win next year’s election, which they won’t, UnitedHealth current business model isn’t set up for a more regulated environment.  And that’s why the stock fell 3% today and that’s why price is testing the weekly demand at $210 again.

But this time could be a different story. The SPDR Healthcare Sector ETF, XLV still lags behind the S&P 500 ETF, SPY.

and relative to all the other SPY sectors, XLV is dead list.

Thus, the chart is suggesting the weekly demand at $210 won’t hold again, will be breached the zone in the near future and that price will move down to the weekly demand at $183.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Village Farms International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes greenhouse-grown tomatoes, bell peppers, and cucumbers in North America. But in 2017, the company partnered with Emerald Health Therapeutics, a Canada-based, medical-marijuana research company and formed a 50-50 joint venture called Pure Sunfarms.

Because Village Farms International is still known as a produce grower the valuation is almost half those of other companies in the cannabis started.  But behind the scenes, they are converting their greenhouses to produce cannabis.  And what I didn’t know is the company has one of the lowest cost / gram equating to very good margins.  Thus, it only makes sense that the company had three straight quarters of recorded a profit with an avg. profit margin exceeding 20%.

Village Farms also has a hand in the hemp sector, so they have expansion opportunities in the US with the passing for the Farm Bill I 2018.

The 2018 farm bill, which legalized industrial hemp cultivation, has opened up new opportunities for cannabidiol (CBD) extraction in the U.S. that otherwise weren’t available to producers. Village Farms is looking to test the waters in this regard, initially growing and selling hemp biomass, as well as CBD oil on the wholesale market to boost its near-term cash flow. To do this, the company also has a separate hemp-based joint venture which includes over 920 acres across four states. Village Farms also expects to eventually sell CBD products directly to major retailers sometime in 2020. While there isn’t too much to say about this hemp joint venture considering the lack of significant financial results, it will be interesting to see just how successful its initial hemp/CBD efforts will be.

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Village Farms offer investors an opportunity to come into the cannabis space through the back door.  While other companies have been overhyped and haven’t been able to deliver, Village Farms is slowing starting to flex their muscles in the cannabis space.  And I particularly like their medical marijuana research company because in the future, the marijuana will be a low margin commodity.  So how should potential investors get into the stock, lets go to the charts.

Well, price did react to the daily demand at $9.60, but there are no more unfilled buy orders at that level.

Thus, the next stack of unfilled buy orders are at the daily demand at $6.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

5G ((short for 5th Generation) is the next generation of mobile communication. 5G brings three new aspects to the table: greater speed (to move more data), lower latency (to be more responsive), and the ability to connect a lot more devices at once (for sensors and smart devices). 5G will be a whole new kind of network, enabling new experiences that will change how we live, work, and play.

Equity analysts Kyle McNealy and George Notter have just come out with a recommendation for investors to buy Apple, and a target for shares to rise to $260. They say Wall Street fails to appreciate how much the company stands to benefit from fifth generation cellular network technology, which basically promises faster data connection

“In our view, current expectations for Apple’s first 5G iPhone lineup are too low. They underestimate Apple’s competitive position for 5G devices,” they said.

They expect better iPhone sales than Wall Street, where current consensus forecasts call for 190 million iPhone units sold in fiscal year 2021 — seen as a big year for 5G devices. That’s 9% below the 6-year unit shipment average for iPhone product cycles, said the analysts, who expect sales of 208 million for 2021.

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But this post isn’t about Apple, it’s about Viavi Solutions. 

While widespread 5G use isn’t a household name yet, engineers are beginning to move parts and subsystems into characterization, validation, production, and deployment.  And that were Viavi Solutions comes into play. 

Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises, network equipment manufacturers, civil government, military, and avionics customers worldwide.  And it just so happens to be 1 of 2 players in the space that makes 5G testing gear.

Viavi Solutions Inc. announced their first quarter earnings a couple of weeks ago.   Viavi Solutions Inc raised their revenue guidance from a range of $273 million to $293 million to a range of $282 million to $294 million; and raised their earning per share guidance from a range of 14-16 cents to a range of 15-17 cents.  In addition, the company approved a stock repurchase program for up to $200 million of the company’s common stock.

So if you believe in 5G, here’s an opportunity to ride the wave with a company with only a 3.5 billion market cap.  So how does one get on board, well lets go to the charts. The weekly demand at $13 is all used up,

so if price gets down to the weekly demand at $10.50, the chart suggests to take it long.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.