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Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too??? – Part 2

October 19, 2019 Published by

WD-40 which stands for “water displacing” was first used by the military in the ’50s to clean up Atlas missile parts. Throughout the years, people have found over 2000 uses for WD-40. Growing up in the projects of NYC, I have seen my fair share of roaches, but I just found out I in addition to using Raid Roach spray, I could of used WD-40 for instant kills as well.

Three months ago, I wrote a post about WD-40,

Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too???

We all know it, have seen it, probably even take it for granted. I’m talking about WD-40. It has infinite uses and is the real utility knife. Just to get you acquainted again with WD-40, here are just 10 of the the 2000 uses of WD-40.

Despite the bump up in price this week, the levels in play and to monitor are the $150 level on the downside and the $188 level on the upside.

I like to think I’m creative with my titles, so the title three months ago was a play on words. Everyone should have WD-40 in the cabinet. However, WD-40 wasn’t a buy three months ago simply put, because the upper limit was $190, the reward wasn’t worth the risk. But thinking about this further, I guess it’s all relative and depends on what type of investor / trader you are. Anyway lets get back to WD-40.

WD-40 is a straight cash money making machine.  The company has grown their dividends on a year basis that’s equivalent to 9% over the last 10 years.  WD-40 has been growing its earnings per share at 13% each year over the past 5 years.  It’s no wonder institutional investors hold almost 90% of the stock. 

WD-40 reported earnings this past week. Although they beat earnings expectations, their outlook was below expectations and on the news the stock price fell the next trading day, but came storming back closing $7 up on the day. However, the fact that price breached a major resistance/support line, I think the risk is to the downside now.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

October 19, 2019 Published by

There are many expenses involved when selling real estate taxes is one of the biggest, especially if you have to pay capital gains.

However, if you know the tax rules then the amount of taxes you pay (if any) can be drastically reduced.  Let’s cover a few ways to reduce that tax burden.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

1.) Short-term vs Long-term capital gains

Properties that are held for more than a year are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate.  This is noteworthy because that tax rate is 0% up to $39,475 for a single filer.  Then it jumps to 15% and holds there all the way up to $434,000.

If you buy and sell a property within one year then it’s taxed as short-term gains and you pay the ordinary income tax rates which start off at 10% up to $9,700 and progresses to 12% up to $39,475 before jumping to 15% and so on and so forth with 37% being the top tax rate.

2.) Increase Your Cost Basis

The price you pay for a property is your cost basis in the eyes of the IRS.  Meaning if you spent 150K to acquire a property and sold it for 200K then you have a 50k taxable gain.

If you completed capital improvements on the property those costs can be added to your costs basis though.  Be sure to keep those receipts so you can tack on that 8K cost for a new roof and reduce the tax burden.

3.) Do a 1031-Exchange

Many investors have heard of this one and it gives you the ability to not pay capital gains (or technically postpone them) on the sale of a property by rolling the money into another property.

It’s deemed a “like-kind” exchange meaning you sell an investment property to buy another investment property that is used similarly.

There is a 45 day window to identify properties to the IRS that you plan to buy and then you must close on one of them within 180 days to avoid triggering the capital gains tax.

Plenty of other rules and methods…

Those are just three ways to alleviate the tax burden, there are many other options out there such as investing from a self-directed IRA and so on.  This is why it’s important to have a solid account knowledgeable in real estate investing.

Be sure to have them work you through the all the options and verify the examples I have given above as I’m an investor, not an accountant.

Having to pay some taxes is a good problem to have.  It means you are doing profitable deals and are buying right.  Always use the property calculator to ensure you buy right!

The ETF, MSCI Is A Longer Term Sell

October 18, 2019 Published by

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its latest projections for the world economy show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a July forecast.  The main culprit was the US-China trade war which is expected to cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the Great Recession. 

Although, the US and China reached a phase I trade deal last week, the IMF stated if deal isn’t reached in the near future, the slowdown in the world economy could worsen, case in point….China.

China’s growth outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2020 is expected to weaken further because of obstacles including drag from the ongoing trade war with the United States, analysts said.

The next mile marker in China’s economic slowdown will come on Friday, when the country reports third quarter growth. Analysts expect it to slow to 6.1 per cent from the 6.2 per cent rate seen in the second quarter, which was the lowest growth rate since the government started publishing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics in the first quarter of 1992.

But analysts are rapidly revising down their expectations for 2020 below the lower end of this year’s growth range. Most forecasts put next year’s growth between 5.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent, with the International Monetary Fund’s just-released projection at 5.8 per cent.

Source

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands for Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and is an index used to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets.   The MSCI ETF that tracks this index is heavily exposed to China.  So where is price of the MSCI ETF headed, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly demand is at $120.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up, but momentum appears to be stalling.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests once the support breaks, to look for shorts to the down side with a first target at the weekly demand at $172.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

What Stock Sectors are the Smart (Big) Money Investing In?

October 18, 2019 Published by

There is a saying to follow the smart money. With the performance of hedge funds over the past decade relative to the S&P 500 some may think that isn’t the smart money.

I’m smart enough to know they are still worth paying attention to because the sheer size of the positions they put on impact individual stocks and sectors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey

This survey gives us insight into what hedge fund managers are investing in, the latest survey showed money moving toward utilities, consumer staples and healthcare and out of energy and materials.

In addition to the movement within stock sectors there was an increase in bond holdings and a reduction in stock holdings.

This is what I recall from my view of the report which is proprietary/subscriber based.

STEEM is today the 7th best performing crypto…

October 17, 2019 Published by

…out of the top 100.

Yesterday and specially today we are finally seeing a good move upwards on the STEEM price action and also on other “traditional” altcoins as MONERO, SIACOIN and NEM that were stagnant lately.

Despite we are still far below the 50 Days Moving Average (50DMA) it is really a good signal.

The 50DMA is one of the main tools/indicators used by the traders. STEEM will need to break that line for a few days in order to reaffirm a consolidation state and a initial indication of a possible Reversal.

Typically people used to trade around this line, because a breakout upwards very often indicates a Bullish Scenario while downwards is, of course Bearish, however we have to be very careful here because there are many traps already “programmed ” around the breakout.

So, in order to consider STEEM out of “Bears Jaws” we have to break that line and stay around or above for a 3 or 4 days more.

I’m not trading STEEM at all but buying small quantities these days however I am crossing fingers to see this scenario occurring soon.

@toofasteddie

Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Energy Analysis Report 10/14/19 – Heating Oil…Meet Biodiesel

October 15, 2019 Published by

When I think of Northeast Winter, I think of heating oil.  Growing up in the projects of New York City, each building had these big boilers ground and every so often I would see a tanker truck refilling the boiler.  As I got older finally realized the black plume of smoke I use to see, it was the combustion of the heating oil in the boiler as it was producing steam for heat and hot water.

NOTE: I grew up right there on the Lower East Side of Manhattan.

Now the Northeast heating oil industry is start to put pressure on the state in the New England regional to mandate biodiesel content in home heating oil in an effort to carbon emissions.   This should be an easy victory for the Industry as because a lot of the heating oil used in New England already contains some biodiesel, but its use is not required in every state.

And across the country, they are encouraging Seattle residents to switch to cleaner heating system by implementing a new tax on the sale of home heating oil to the tune of $0.24 / gallon starting 9/1/20.

Heating oil is a petroleum product refined from crude oil. Heating oil and diesel fuel are closely related products called distillates.  Distillation is the process of separating the components or substances from a liquid mixture by using selective boiling and condensation.  I studied chemical engineering in college and can appreciate the massive refiners out there.

Image result for refiners

Refiners who produce heating oil often make decisions about how much to produce based on the price they are paying for crude oil. However, buying your heating oil during the summer months is usually a better bet because prices tend to drop based on the lack of demand.

As the winter approaching, what can homeowners expect to pay for the price of heating oil, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at $2.4560 and monthly demand is at $1.6000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to play the extremes, wait for price to get to the daily supply or daily demand before considering a trade set-up

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

LINK – Taking a Shot on a Long Trade

October 14, 2019 Published by

Yesterday I discussed Chainlink (LINK) and how $2.50 could potentially act as a support given prior price action.

Just a little trade…

Now that price touched the 10 day moving average after digesting the prior up move I have decided to take a shot and bought 300 coins at 2.56

If you look at the chart you can see we may have a little double bottom intraday as 2.45 was the low of yesterday’s candle and today so far.

I may be jumping the gun as this candle had not closed and anything can happen in the remaining hours, but with a clear exist of 2.45 it was worth risking 10 cents to make 30 or so as the high of 2.98 is my profit target.

It certainly doesn’t scream get long, but it’s a decent enough risk-reward and setup to speculate and try and pickup an easy $100.

This is just my opinion, make your own trades ?

Better Buy: ExxonMobil vs. Dow (Lesser Of Two Evils)

October 14, 2019 Published by

This past weekend I came
across an article on Motley Fool titled,

Better Buy: ExxonMobil vs. Dow

I immediately thought
about the which one is the lesser of two evils…very similar when Hillary was
running against Trump a couple of years ago. 

Image result for hillary vs trump

Nevertheless, I wanted to
get a tidbit from the article before I give you my opinion.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is an old hand with a diversified business model. While the name Dow (NYSE:DOW) is old, it’s really a new company today, with a focus on the chemical space. Here’s a few things you need to think about to decide which one of these iconic names is a better fit for your portfolio.

Exxon is working through a difficult period for oil prices and spending heavily to improve its business. It has a rock-solid balance sheet and looks relatively cheap from a historical basis (the yield is higher than it has been in decades). It is hardly risk-free, but it has a long history of success behind it. Even conservative investors would be OK jumping aboard here.

Dow has a great name and solid businesses, but is really a new company today with a very limited history. Its balance sheet isn’t as strong as Exxon’s, but it also isn’t likely to face the same top- and bottom-line swings. That also suggests its target payout ratio is reasonable. However, with little track record, most investors would probably be better off giving the company at least a year or so to get its house in order before jumping on this high-yield stock.

Source

Sector SPDR ETFs have become one of the most popular ways to invest in specific sectors of the stock market. Sector SPDRs track 11 different sectors in the S&P 500.  It’s important to note that 39% of a stock’s move is due to the sector that it belongs to.  The remaining balance is 41% of a stock’s move is due to the index and only 20% of a stock’s move is due to the company itself.

Since May I started tracking the SPDR sectors based on a moving average and a rating system I developed.  It’s been fairly accurate in identifying the strongest and weakest sectors. Please note Exon belongs to the XLE sector and Dow belongs to the XLB sector.

Here are the results from
last week.

Here are the results from
wk of 5/13/19

As you can see, both companies have been in the worse sector five months ago and today. And when I look at the monthly chart for both companies, the chart suggests ExxonMobil will fall to the monthly demand at $68,

while the chart for DOW suggests price will fall to weekly demand at $42.

If I was Motley Fool, I would of probably titled the article, “Better Buy In the Future: ExxonMobil Or Dow” because neither one of them is worth buying at this point.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 10/13/19 – Rough Week For The US Dollar

October 13, 2019 Published by

Not only is the world’s
currency the US dollar, but it’s one of three safe haven currencies in the
world (the other two being the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen).  And as long as the US economy grows, relative
to other economies and US interest rates remain positive and/or higher relative
to other central banks around the world, the US dollar should continue to
appreciate.

However, late last week we received news regarding the US-China trade talk that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to reach an agreement with the United States to minimize further escalation in trade tariffs. The feeling appeared to be mutual by Trump going into the discussions,

 which was later followed up with Trump said his negotiators reached a “substantial phase-one deal” that will delay the implementation of more US tariffs on Chinese imports. On the news the dollar’s weakness ignited a rally in the euro with the single currency rallying 0.5% to a two-week high. In addition, the British pound rallied after British and Irish leaders meet to have a treaty agreed to allowing the England to leave the EU in an orderly fashion by the end of this month.

As a result of good news on the US-China trade front and a potential amicable Brexit, the dollar had its biggest one day drop in five weeks late last week. So is this just the beginning of a bigger drop for the US dollar, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 101.50 and monthly demand is at 90.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggest it’s not time to go short the US dollar and to wait for price to hit 100.25.

However, if price breaches the 98.00 level, the chart could be suggesting to prepare to go short.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

October 12, 2019 Published by

Three weeks ago, I write a post titled,

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Roku remains one of the fastest growing leaders in video streaming technology. Roku has over 30 million active users, about 10% of U.S. TV viewers aged 18 to 34 are now on Roku and these users are consuming more than 9 billion hours on streaming content.

But wait, why is Roku down almost 40% since early Sept?

Apple announced it would be giving away a free year of its new Apple TV+ service to customers who purchase new Apple devices, Comcast Corp. said it will give out its Xfinity Flex streaming box for free to its Internet-only subscribers and Facebook Inc. launched its new Portal TV device.

Price is approaching the monthly demand at $95. The chart suggests to go long once price penetrates the monthly demand.

Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel.  If you know anything about Wall Street, then you have heard of hedge fund, Citadel.  The hedge fund manages close to $30 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.  

Image result for ken griffin

The guy is doing well for himself.  This past January, Ken bought a New York City apartment for $238 million.  But he felt he didn’t have enough space, so he also simultaneously purchased London mansion for $122 million.  Anyway back to the post as I got sidetracked by his wealth.  

A 13G filing or Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the 13D which must be filed by anyone who acquires ownership in a public company of more than 5% of the outstanding stock.  And according to a new 13G filing from hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors shows a new 5% stake in Roku Inc.

Macquarie upgraded Roku from Neutral to Outperform on Wednesday.  And on Friday RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Roku to an Outperform from Sector Perform, boosting his price target by $48 to $155.

I can’t say it enough, so I’m going to repeat what I said in a recent post.

Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. And simple put, they do the opposite of retail investors. For the most part, retail investors buy high and sell low, it’s usually the Smart Money on the other side of the trade who are selling high and buying low.

Taskmaster4450 talked about this yesterday in his post titled, Why There Is No Need For FOMO On Steem

The investing world is full of FOMO (fear of missing out) at times. It is what often drives markets, often to the point of insanity.

Investing is a zero-sum game, so it also drives retail investor to the poor house.

Why do you think Ken took a recent stake in Roku and Roku was upgraded by Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets?  It’s because there isn’t an ounce of FOMO in their blood and because Roku now selling at a discount.  Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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