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Steem Price Analysis as Requested

September 26, 2019 Published by

Been a long time since I did an analysis of the steem price chart. However, a loyal reader and fellow steemian @chrisrice put in a request and I am happy to oblige.

The More Things Change The More They Stay the Same

If you look at the top of the post you will see a zoomed out view of the daily price chart for steem. The good news is the price action and levels are rather obvious even to the naked eye once the support/resistance lines are laid out as in that chart.

So here’s the thing. We can see long-term price levels when looking at that chart. We can see how they have come into play and to be honest how all of them have been reached with the exception of the level roughly around 10 cents.

At this point, can we expect price to make a full round trip? As in go all the way back to the low it start its prior upward journey from?

Looking at this price action is sort of feels like a self-fulling prophecy.

I say this even with all the good thing going on with steem right now. I think there are some many projects and initiatives (steemleo, splinterlands, etc.) that are pro steem value. However, it takes time for these things to have an impact on the actual demand for and price of steem.

Crypto Market is Weak

The entire crypto market is weak right now to boot. Steem is at 12 cents while a write this. 10 cents is just a mere move away.

Daily chart zoomed in makes it more clear

I’m fine with it hitting ten cents. My worry is that won’t be the bottom. That support area goes into the 9 cent area, but if we go sub 9 cents then the only downside target left is the all time low around 5-6 cents.

So basically I’m rooting for us to test 10 cents and create a bottom there, again.

Then we can focus on upside targets – which would start with this 16 cent area that is now our last little consolidation area before trying to make a run at 20 cents.

Interesting times in steem price action for sure!

Forex $1 MM Challenge – Trade #20 (9-26-19) Sold AUD/USD

September 26, 2019 Published by

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end a nearly 15-month trade war with China could happen sooner than people think and that the Chinese were making big agricultural purchases from the United States, including of beef and pork.

Trump spoke a day after delivering a stinging rebuke to China’s trade practices at the United Nations General Assembly, saying he would not accept a “bad deal” in U.S.-China trade negotiations.

China’s top diplomat hit back at U.S. criticism of its trade and development model in a speech on Tuesday after Trump spoke at the United Nations. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister and state councilor, said Beijing would not bow to threats, including on trade, though he said he hoped the high-level trade talks next month would produce positive results.

Source

I have a bias that no trade deal will be reached, but I’m going to continue to trade what is real, not what I feel…so I went short on AUD/USD

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 0.88000 and there is no monthly demand is at 0.60000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

60 Min Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the 60 min supply at 0.6750.

NOTE: I don’t usually trade 60 min charts, continuing to test my skills on the smaller time frame, so my position was a little smaller than usual. In addition, I may try to get to breakeven sooner than later because I’m really in no man’s land.

My target is right before the weekly demand zone, but I may not hold as this trade is a greater than 12:1 Reward to Risk trade and I’m looking for just a minimum of 3:1.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Village Farms International Is…Almost A Buy

September 26, 2019 Published by

Village Farms International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes greenhouse-grown tomatoes, bell peppers, and cucumbers in North America. But in 2017, the company partnered with Emerald Health Therapeutics, a Canada-based, medical-marijuana research company and formed a 50-50 joint venture called Pure Sunfarms.

Because Village Farms International is still known as a produce grower the valuation is almost half those of other companies in the cannabis started.  But behind the scenes, they are converting their greenhouses to produce cannabis.  And what I didn’t know is the company has one of the lowest cost / gram equating to very good margins.  Thus, it only makes sense that the company had three straight quarters of recorded a profit with an avg. profit margin exceeding 20%.

Village Farms also has a hand in the hemp sector, so they have expansion opportunities in the US with the passing for the Farm Bill I 2018.

The 2018 farm bill, which legalized industrial hemp cultivation, has opened up new opportunities for cannabidiol (CBD) extraction in the U.S. that otherwise weren’t available to producers. Village Farms is looking to test the waters in this regard, initially growing and selling hemp biomass, as well as CBD oil on the wholesale market to boost its near-term cash flow. To do this, the company also has a separate hemp-based joint venture which includes over 920 acres across four states. Village Farms also expects to eventually sell CBD products directly to major retailers sometime in 2020. While there isn’t too much to say about this hemp joint venture considering the lack of significant financial results, it will be interesting to see just how successful its initial hemp/CBD efforts will be.

Source

Village Farms offer investors an opportunity to come into the cannabis space through the back door.  While other companies have been overhyped and haven’t been able to deliver, Village Farms is slowing starting to flex their muscles in the cannabis space.  And I particularly like their medical marijuana research company because in the future, the marijuana will be a low margin commodity.  So how should potential investors get into the stock, lets go to the charts.

Well, price did react to the daily demand at $9.60, but there are no more unfilled buy orders at that level.

Thus, the next stack of unfilled buy orders are at the daily demand at $6.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

I bought $SQ today, Long

September 26, 2019 Published by

I bought some shares of Square Inc. $SQ today. I have liked this stock since it was in the teens, and I missed the first boat. I am not going to miss this one. This stock has pulled back to major support and has essentially gone nowhere since Q1 of 2018. It is now going sideways and this is how you buy the bottom folks.

If it doesn’t hold major support and drops it longer than 48 hours then you sell. If it does, then we are in some business.

Ever since I saw those iPads I knew this was going to be big. Now it is the best and easiest place to buy bitcoin. Bullish!

ZRX technical analysis

September 26, 2019 Published by

ZRX seen from the 1W temporary we can see how the price is showing a big bullish push after the slow decline that was pronounced towards the support located at 0.00001473 which is marked on the graph by the black horizontal, the closing of the previous candle has been a powerful bullish candle, while the development of the current candle remains bullish, despite the sharp fall in the price of BTC, this is a good signal for this currency, should meet without problems our objective located within the price range of 0.00003857 – 0.00004275 which I have indicated on the chart above by a light blue rectangle.

ZRX seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current structure of candles, has been impressive vertical rise that has given the price in previous days, currently could be forming an upward pattern known as flag, which according to the theory should conclude with a continuation bullish, in the graph I have indicated by means of a triangle red color the possible figure that should form, we still cannot determine it because we need that the price form us an HL to locate the exact support of the figure, inside the triangle I have drawn the possible trajectory that could follow the price during the development of the figure with minima every time higher we would have a continuation in direction to the rise.

In conclusion, ZRX “exploded” 1 week ago and I haven’t been able to locate it in time between the sea of opportunities in the markets, however, the area of supply has not yet been tested so it still has a good percentage of profits ahead, its current movement is quite good despite the blow that has given the BTC movement, we could anticipate that its movement will not be affected over the next few days, still recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D to avoid possible invalidations.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Is it Hammer Time Folks? $QQQ $SPX

September 25, 2019 Published by

We saw some major buying off the lows today ladies and gents. A lot of names were holding tight and have now put in some hammers. Does this resolve higher and is this a buying opportunity? Time will tell. All I am saying is do not be bearish because the media is bearish. Yes growth is slowing but can we rip to all time highs? Definitely.

We are one tweet away from all time highs and tech ripping higher. It’s hard to be MEGA bearish above a rising 200 day MA which you can clearly see, that is where we are right now.

Two Minute Crypto – BTC Price and Rate Cuts – A Heavenly Match?

September 25, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 55th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-btc-price-and-rate-cuts-a-heavenly-match/id1441492450?i=1000451162186

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-b5eed-c0d754

Transcript

Two Minute Crypto – BTC Price and Rate Cuts – A Heavenly Match?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s episode examines whether recent macro trends in global central bank policy will have a discernible impact on Bitcoin.

For the first time in Bitcoin’s history major global currencies have re-started rate cuts with further cuts generally expected in the coming months. Interest rates are already at or near historic lows but the new normal seems to be onwards and downwards. The FED just cut rates for the second time in three months. The ECB went further into negative territory and revamped their long-running Quantitative Easing program to the tune of $20 billion per month. A slew of other central banks such as those of South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are also cutting rates. In addition, the FED has been repeatedly forced to pump money into overnight lending markets in order to maintain liquidity – something which hasn’t occurred since 2008. To this add a president vocally calling for zero rates or lower and the IMF publicly researching the viability of long-term steep negative interest rates.

Does any of this improve the outlook for BTC? Well, despite a lack of firm evidence to date and the recent sell-off, I would argue, yes. At the very least we are entering a period of time where one of the key market propositions of BTC will be tested – provable scarcity. We all know that BTC is limited in both minting (mining) and in absolute terms. This quality of scarcity has no doubt been pivotal to Bitcoin’s appeal and success over the past decade. However, we are now entering an era where rate cut by rate cut, the contrast between a provably scarce asset such as Bitcoin should become increasingly obvious and perhaps compelling from a long-term investment perspective.

Does this guarantee a spike in value over the coming months? Impossible to say, ever lower rates may continue to prop up other asset classes leading to further highs and a slackening of interest in cryptocurrency yields.

Nonetheless, it does offer the engaged investor an opportunity to examine whether a correlation between central bank policy and BTC price will emerge. I believe it does and it will but only over a multi-quarter – multi-rate cut cycle. At the very least, it’s worth watching for such a price relationship to emerge or indeed be disproven. I’m guessing I won’t be alone in doing so.

Thanks for listening.

Are You Ready For 5G??? – Part 6

September 25, 2019 Published by

5G ((short for 5th Generation) is the next generation of mobile communication. 5G brings three new aspects to the table: greater speed (to move more data), lower latency (to be more responsive), and the ability to connect a lot more devices at once (for sensors and smart devices). 5G will be a whole new kind of network, enabling new experiences that will change how we live, work, and play.

Equity analysts Kyle McNealy and George Notter have just come out with a recommendation for investors to buy Apple, and a target for shares to rise to $260. They say Wall Street fails to appreciate how much the company stands to benefit from fifth generation cellular network technology, which basically promises faster data connection

“In our view, current expectations for Apple’s first 5G iPhone lineup are too low. They underestimate Apple’s competitive position for 5G devices,” they said.

They expect better iPhone sales than Wall Street, where current consensus forecasts call for 190 million iPhone units sold in fiscal year 2021 — seen as a big year for 5G devices. That’s 9% below the 6-year unit shipment average for iPhone product cycles, said the analysts, who expect sales of 208 million for 2021.

Source

But this post isn’t about Apple, it’s about Viavi Solutions. 

While widespread 5G use isn’t a household name yet, engineers are beginning to move parts and subsystems into characterization, validation, production, and deployment.  And that were Viavi Solutions comes into play. 

Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises, network equipment manufacturers, civil government, military, and avionics customers worldwide.  And it just so happens to be 1 of 2 players in the space that makes 5G testing gear.

Viavi Solutions Inc. announced their first quarter earnings a couple of weeks ago.   Viavi Solutions Inc raised their revenue guidance from a range of $273 million to $293 million to a range of $282 million to $294 million; and raised their earning per share guidance from a range of 14-16 cents to a range of 15-17 cents.  In addition, the company approved a stock repurchase program for up to $200 million of the company’s common stock.

So if you believe in 5G, here’s an opportunity to ride the wave with a company with only a 3.5 billion market cap.  So how does one get on board, well lets go to the charts. The weekly demand at $13 is all used up,

so if price gets down to the weekly demand at $10.50, the chart suggests to take it long.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

It Doesn’t Matter If The BOJ Cuts Rates

September 25, 2019 Published by

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expounded the virtues of negative interest rates Tuesday in comments that will keep market players on high alert that the central bank will take action in October.

Speaking days after a BOJ meeting that raised expectations for additional stimulus to come next month, Kuroda said he was still closer to taking action than he was in July.

“I don’t think we need to rule out cutting negative rates as a policy option at this point,” Kuroda said to reporters in Osaka, following a speech to local business leaders there earlier in the day.

Economists and BOJ watchers are still trying to gauge whether last week’s call for the review is more a signal of looming action or more a delaying tactic.

Source

I think BOJ will lower rates, just like the ECB, the US, Bank of Australia, Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Indonesia and many others are doing as they all face a slowing global economy.  However, although all those other currencies are dropping in value, with the exception of the ugliest prettiest dude at the party, the US Dollar, I anticipate the Yen to continue moving higher.

Like the Swish Franc, the Yen is also safe haven currency as well.  However, because Japan is such a large exporter, over many decades of account surpluses, it has become the largest net creditor to the world. So during times of uncertainty, capital flows out of other currencies and into the Japanese yen, causing it to strengthen.

So where is the Yen headed next, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Timeframe) – monthly supply is at 0.0103 and monthly demand at 0.00805.

Weekly Chart (Trend Timeframe) – the trend is sideways with upside momentum.

Daily Chart (Entry) – the chart suggests to go long if and once price breaches the daily supply at 0.00912.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

After the Drop Bitcoin Trading as Expected!

September 25, 2019 Published by

Midday Tuesday Bitcoin sold off hard crashing through the 9,400 support and getting as low as 8k and even lower depending on the exchange you use.

After that spike sell off, which was playing out while I was on air doing the scaredy cat investor show on MSPWaves, I said that the sideways action that began to occur on the hourly chart would likely continue for several hours as the 10 period average played catch up.

Now that price hit that average will we leg down?

Looking at the hourly chart in this post. Price has hit its head on the 10 period as it has come down with price consolidating and the action looks like there is still pressure on the sell side. 8,500 seems to be the level that price opened and closed on several hourly candles so it will be interesting to see if price holds that or even tries to push through the moving average to the upside.

What I’m looking for though is another leg down. I have buy orders in down at 7,650 and I already bought a little just below 8,500.

I’m actually rooting for another leg down because I’d love to buy lower.

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