World Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/4/19

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.

Source Image

Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated.  However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes.  However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.

DAX (Germany)

Dow Jones (US)

FTSE 100 (England)

Nasdaq (US)

Nifty 50 (India)

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Shanghai (China)

Russell 2000 (US)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

BITCOIN: could it be an enormous Bullish Flag?

5 consecutive days of green candles already, despite BITCOIN has not increase so much in volume , BTC has broken strongly the Falling Wedge and so, it is going upwards while trying to break another known resistance at 10800 USD right now:

What I can see here is an interesting Flag pattern in formation. Usually this pattern use to provide till 5 rebounds before breaking the upper resistance (a-b-c-d-e) but it is known that also can be broken on the 4th, so at (d).

This is my current scenario: If the upper resistance (red line) is broken powerfully on (d), it would mean that the correction and so the end of the wave II was already done at (c) around 9000 USD… If, by the contrary, BTC finds strong resistance at (d), it would be likely to have another test of the inclined support on (e), ending there the correction…

In a graphical manner, two options, both bullish, of course:

Option 1:


Option 2:

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Benefits of Investing in Designated Opportunity Zones

One of the good things about real estate (and there are many) is that the government generally creates incentives for investors and developers to provide housing in certain areas.

This is the case with the fairly new “opportunity zones” initiative that launched in December of 2017 with the tax cuts and jobs act legislation.  Let’s discuss what the benefits are of investing in one of these areas.

Investing in Designated Opportunity Zones

By investing in opportunity zones you can save a bunch on capital gains taxes.   Similar to a 1031, but with more flexibility, you only need to designate the gains from a property into the opportunity fund.

That money obviously needs to be used to invest in one of the many opportunity zones designated by the government entities.   You can see a map of opportunity zones here.

Tax Benefits of Opportunity Zone Investing

A basis step-up for capital gains reinvested in an opportunity fund

A temporary deferral of taxable income for capital gains reinvested into an opportunity fund.

A permanent exclusion of capital gains if the investment is held for at least 10 years.

For us buy hold folks that last one is very enticing as normally you will hold a rental for atleast 10 years.  Capital gains being excluded permanently sounds nice to me!  It’s likely a 15% savings staying in my pocket!

Tax benefits are just one of the reasons rental properties are so awesome.

How One Guy CRUSHED IT Trading Beyond Meat

Active trading is more than just reading charts.   Sentiment, news announcements and sometimes just simple logic can all play a part in making a trade, especially one that offers a big move.

That’s what Guy Gentile did trading Beyond Meat (BYND)

How One Guy Crushed It Trading Beyond Meat

Beyond meat is a meatless food company (think burgers, etc.).   They had an initial public offering back in late May and the stock had basically skyrocketed since.

The hype around the company and stock was a big part of that.  Kind of like anything “new” that gets the “this is the next big thing to boom” vibe throughout the masses.

Granted meatless food products isn’t new, but they have a burger that is apparently very good and used that fact to expand like crazy and then raise a ton of money to fund it.

Either way there were plenty of signs, that atleast in the near-term the stock was far ahead of itself.

Higher Valuation Than JetBlue and Coors?

As shared in @rollandthomas post has beyond meat seen its best days the value of beyond meat had blown past some rather larger companies that do way more business such as beer maker coors and airline operator jetblue.

I’m sure the meatless burger is good, but can they sell enough to generate more revenue than the two companies above?

The chart also gives us a nice indication that things may be a bit ahead of themselves…..

There is always a Catalyst

As you can see the stock ripped higher into earnings and gave us a nice doji candle meaning the buyers were not fully in control anymore.

Now it was just a matter of what happened at earnings.  Here is the thing though, the hype around the stock was so high that even an earning beat might mean a sell off.   Buy the rumor sell the news is a mantra for a reason.

Shorting with Leverage and Safety to Crush It

Mr. Gentile made a big play with the use of options (which is good cus it establishes your risk up front) by buying weekly put options heading into the earnings announcement.

If the stock goes down he has the right to buy the stock at those lower prices or he can just sell the put option for the higher valuation it has at that point.

With the stock trading around 230 on Friday he bought 230 strike prices down to the 215’s in 5 point increments, thousands of them.  If he was right he gets paid.  If he was wrong he loses only what he spent no more.

Well, he was right and the stock is down 30 plus point from Friday’s close.  Just booking the profits by closing out those put options is a homerun.

However, he leveled up (and did take on my risk) by selling a bunch of the 220 calls that expire this week.  Basically if the price of BYND closed below 220 this friday he will also keep all the premium collected from selling those calls.

Conviction Meets Size

There are times to make regular trades and times to load up.  He saw this as a time to load the truck up and get paid.  You won’t always be right, but to make real money actively investing you need to take the occasional big swing when all the signs line up.

Just be sure that if you are wrong it doesn’t knock you out of the game.  Never put yourself in a position where one trade can blow out your whole account.  Always live to trade another day.

You can read a detailed article about the trade including an interview with Mr. Gentile here:

Guy Gentile Made $4M In Beyond Meat, Sees 50% Downside By December

 

BITCOIN: What’s your bet…

Since volume keeps on diminishing and trading activity slows down due to narrowing prices I am trying to get the most positive scenario thus I am considering the possibility of being in a “Falling Wedge” Pattern:

The falling wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes lower lows and lower highs with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making. (Source)

If this pattern is triggered, the most likely result would be the continuation of the trend previous to the pattern, so UPTREND…towards 14000 USD.

But then, you have another pattern in formation, this time is the other face of the coin…

Yep, a very bearish pattern here, pointing towards 4800 USD.

In my opinion, nowadays we have a 50/50 chances on one of the both options so, very difficult to take a decision now… we have to wait for one of the two get triggered and follow the trend.

What about you?

Let’s see what is the opinion of the audience here.

I am curious to read what is your opinion about which of the two proposals are more likely to happen next. I will upvote all the comments on that regards.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 7/28/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

World Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/28/19

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.

Source Image

Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated.  However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes.  However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.

DAX (Germany)

Dow Jones (US)

FTSE 100 (England)

Nasdaq (US)

Nifty 50 (India)

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Shanghai (China)

Russell 2000 (US)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/29/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)     

Consumer Staples (XLP)                   

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)                          

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                      

Real Estate (XLRE)                          

Technology (XLK)                 

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: Support at 9400 USD is holding…

…for the moment, because in only 4 minutes, a very strong sell action pushed BITCOIN from 10200 to 9400 USD…


Remember that the level to observe is 9100 USD which is the lowest point of the ABC correction, if we keep above it is a good signal, if BTC breaks that level, our “house of Cards” will collapse in my opinion.



My concern is founded on the Head and Shoulder pattern that is probably in formation now:


We are “leaves to the wind” for the eyes of some big whales…

Enjoy the trip.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

STEEM: We probably have touched the bottom already…

… despite the amount of Liquid STEEM deposited at the exchanges keeps growing according to the last weekly post of @penguinpablo (you can read it here), STEEM is showing a strong resistance against sellers.

This is the weekly amount of STEEM withdrawn to the Exchanges:


This is the weekly averaged position of STEEM at The Total Market Cap:

…and this is the current 4h-Chart of STEEM:


The amount of STEEM deposited at the exchanges still is enormous but there is something that has changed since a few days ago.

Exactly 4 days ago the RSI showed us a well formed BULLISH DIVERGENCE when STEEM hit the Bottom of the year, forming as well a double bottom in the long correction.

Maybe Sellers have relaxed a little the tension but what is sure is that we have buyers here so there is a clear interest on STEEM.

And it is clearly sustaining the fall of STEEM at the Total Market Cap… of course, with the permission of BITCOIN. If BTC falls strongly STEEM will be affected as well

Hopefully we have reached an equilibrium at the market that will allow STEEM to recover not only the price but also the visibility.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie