Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.
The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars. Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.
Bitcoin
30 Yr Bond
Copper
Euro Dollar
Gold
Oil
Soybeans
S&P 500
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.
Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated. However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes. However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.
DAX (Germany)
Dow Jones (US)
FTSE 100 (England)
Nasdaq (US)
Nifty 50 (India)
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
Shanghai (China)
Russell 2000 (US)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Tight, tight, tight on the Bitcoin chart (even with yesterday’s drop) -shouldn’t be long before a significant resolution one way or the other. As to the Alts – they’ve been savaged with no sign of recovery on the horizon.
Global markets are looking very shaky with gold, silver, and Bitcoin the beneficiaries. The dollar seems set to run up against most currencies particularly those of developing nations. China essentially devalued the Yuan this week – letting the sub 7 Yuan peg against the dollar finally break. This week once again highlights some of the red-lights flashing throughout the global economy. Could the party go on – could lower interest rates and further money printing – first rescue – then pump global markets -absolutely they could but I’m not betting on it.
Picks of the Week
A chart-storm highlighting the looming dollar run-up against its competitors is fascinating. In a similar vein, the interview with Raoul Pal examining systemic global market risk factors is compelling.
A simple explanation of blockchain – handy to have on hand for the newly curious: https://medium.com/@sidharth_m/beginners-guide-to-blockchain-explaining-it-to-a-5-years-old-772caac6ae97
There’s a lot of smoke around the state of the Chinese economy – the sky isn’t falling but this is perhaps part of the appeal of crypto for Chinese investors? (recommended):
Website / Utility
Starting Sept 9th – a free university-level course on blockchain – 11 units – live sessions – many by Anton Antonopoulos (Note: you have to supply your contact details -including phone number):
That one flew by. Learned a lot – worried a little -such is crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.
For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.
When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully. With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.
Communication Services (XLC)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Energy (XLE)
Financials (XLF)
Health Care (XLV)
Industrials (XLI)
Materials (XLB)
Real Estate (XLRE)
Technology (XLK)
Utilities (XLU)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.
And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.
The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).
AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar
EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar
GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar
NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar
USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)
USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)
USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, Robotina began a wave one advance in July 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in March this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Robotina should be heading next towards the March peak in the red wave three.
The planting season in 2019 was historically slow due to wet weather several months ago. The storms left millions of acres unseeded and put corn crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage. For example, in May, a farmer in Indiana said his corn crop was only 6% planted at the time, but this was the case in most of the Midwestern states as many farmers experienced record flooding across the central United States.
The latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield, as well as a noticeable variation from the July U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.
AccuWeather analysts predict the 2019 corn yield will be 13.07 billion bushels, a decline of 9.3% from 2018 and 5.8% lower than the latest USDA figures. It would be the lowest yield since 2012, a year of a significant drought that saw final corn production numbers plummet to 10.76 billion bushels.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only). On Monday they report their numbers for corn.
I have no idea what the crop yield is going to be when the report is issued on Monday. Big here is a bigger picture of the corn futures on the weekly chart.
So I will repeat, I have no idea what the results are going to be on Monday, but based on the daily chart, the chart suggests, the results will surprise on the upside, pushing prices down, due to price entering a daily supply as I finish this post.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
It’s amazing how many tools there are at our disposal when it comes to real estate investing. I’d like to talk about one that can come in handy when dealing with the issue of getting loans, but wanting to have your property in an LLC.
Note: this is not legal advice, please check with your attorney when making any such transactions.
Get the Loan – Then transfer into LLC by way of Land Trust
Using a land trust is always a good idea, regardless. It provides anonymity for the owner which protects you because you can’t get sued if it cannot be proven you own the property.
Additionally, when a title is transferred to a land trust it doesn’t trigger the due on sale clause that is part of a traditional mortgage.
Generally when title changes hands it triggers the loan to be paid in full.
Now push it to the LLC
Once the property is in your land trust you can then transfer the title to your LLC. Then make sure your LLC has an operating agreement in place to manage that property within the trust.
Basically this gives us a way to take a property that we buy in our own names, usually in order to qualify for a traditional mortgage, and move it into our LLC.
Remember – owning investment properties in your own name is a liability risk. Yes, insurance is great but only goes so far. Having properties in entities like land trusts and LLCs provides protection for you and the assets you’ve worked so hard to accumulate.
but a lot has happen since then. Again, Innovative Industrial is a marijuana-based REIT that acquires cannabis-related properties. Innovative Industrial went public in 2016. The company has made eight quarterly dividend payments since July 2017, with three separate $0.10/quarter increases over that span. And on July 15th, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, representing an increase of 33% from the previous quarter.
But also In July, the company issued 1,495,000 shares of common stock. Typically when a company issues more stock, where they dilute the earnings/share which is frown upon on Wall Street. This is probably why the stock fell in mid-July.
Now in my eyes, they raised more cash to buy more properties…which is a good thing. In recent months, the company has acquired the following properties: six in California, two in Pennsylvania, two in Michigan and one each in Ohio, Nevada and Massachusetts. But get this, all the properties have occupants that have signed on to long-term leases.
There reason why I love Innovative Industrial Properties so much is because you have an opportunity to get onboard a growing company, in one of the hottest growing secular trends, that’s paying shareholders dividends that grow almost every quarter. Why are dividends such a big due, look at the returns of the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends.
I’m personally looking to buy if price gets to the $64 level, so if price breaches the daily demand at $95 price has a shot of getting through the mess in white and to the $64 level.
This level also represent a fib retracement of 61.8%, for all the folks out there that use fibonacci in their trading.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
FTM seen from the 1D temporary we can see how the candlestick structure looks bearish, the previous candlestick closing below the ITZ point (important trading area) has caused bears to gain ground and we see it reflected in the current candlestick with its bearish momentum, the 1D demand zone located at 0.01802 does not seem to support the price for long, does not seem a very strong support, the major setup that shows FTM is a descending wedge so we should expect the price to form a new LL in or near the diagonal support of the figure, in the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that should follow the price in its path.
FTM seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of the candles, as we mentioned earlier, the price has been pushed violently down after the support drawn on the chart was broken by a horizontal blue color located at 0.02027, from here we should continue to see the price fall until we find the support of the larger figure, I have drawn the diagonal fall as resistance of the downward wedge, we see in the chart in blue.
In conclusion, when the price draws us a C point in the price range of 0.13 – 0.12 will be our best entry opportunity, the price should find strong demand that drives the price towards our target located in the price range of 0.02426 – 0.02554, we can make very good gains with this trade, however, I recommend as always to be attentive to the movement of candles in 1D and wait for the price to reach us.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
