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Month: December 2019

Taiwan Semiconductor…Another Derivative Play On Apple

December 13, 2019 Published by

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing, and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. The company manufactures masks and electronic spare parts; researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, packages, and tests color filters; and offers customer and engineering support services.

(TSM) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors.  TSM has been involved with chip design since the 1980s and today produces chips for some of the largest clients in the world. 

One such company is Apple.  TMS produces chips for Apple and gets 20% of its sales from Apple.

Two months ago Apple reportedly boosted component orders for the iPhone 11.  In particular, Apple bumped up orders for the $699 iPhone 11 and the $999 iPhone 11 Pro.  Some analysts are thinking Apple can sell up to 185 million iPhone 11s.   In addition, according to one analyst, Apple AirPods are seeing a surge of demand and could face holiday shortage.

Are you connecting the dots yet?

Apple (AAPL) iPhone chip supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) saw healthy sales growth in November thanks to strong demand for smartphone processors. Taiwan Semiconductor stock spiked to a record high on the news Thursday.

Taiwan Semi reported revenue of $3.54 billion in November. Sales rose 1.7% from the previous month and popped 9.7% year over year in local currency.

“We think this is largely due to smartphones (seasonal ramp) along with a recovery in data center chips,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mitch Steves said in a report to clients

Source

The chart suggests to look for a pull back to go long near the $52 level.

Another derivative play on Apple is Qualcomm.  Qualcomm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and markets digital communication products worldwide and the company happens to be right in the center of 5G.

Qualcomm just announced their Snapdragon 865 5G chip which is capable of processing 2 gigapixels per second while delivering speeds of up to 7.5Gbps 5G connectivity.

Apple has plans on selling four new iPhones next year that could all be compatible with ultra-fast 5G wireless networks.

The chart suggests Qualcomm will continue to move higher to at least the $100 level.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

December 13, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 66th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-rei4e-cb291b

Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode wraps up the China Blockchain Series by examining the risk-reward investment scenarios now on offer.

Despite the undeniable importance of the Chinese Communist Parties’ enthusiasm for blockchain it, in fact, offers very little long-term upside for the typical investor.

A caveat -if you happen to be a mainland Chinese investor with ties to the government – then the future is very bright indeed. For the rest – not so much. There are many hundreds of blockchain projects currently underway in China – over 100 in Hainan province alone. How many of these are likely to accrue long-term value? Very few indeed – even in the most permissive and supportive environment the majority of start-ups fail. As 2017’s ICO phase clearly demonstrated the failure rate for crypto-related endeavours is even higher than that for other tech-related projects. Add to this the immense difficulty of accessing reliable information on China-based projects. A typical western investor simply has no idea what is ‘true’ when it comes to local chains. Twitter personalities and thirdhand reports make terrible investment advisors. Finally, throw an authoritarian regime into the mix. A government that can and will do as it pleases – anointing winners and dooming all others and the futility of picking Chinese crypto winners should be readily apparent.

Nonetheless, a tangible investment opportunity does exist here but it lies with projects that benefit by comparison with state-sanctioned chains. Bitcoin is an obvious example. Over the next few years, the reality of blockchain as a tool of state control and coercion will likely serve to highlight the liberating benefits of truly decentralized systems. Wall Street may care not a whit for liberty but they certainly embrace opportunity and decentralized financial instruments fit the bill perfectly.

Another though much difficult to identify opportunity lies with chains that successfully master interoperability – allowing them to do business across borders while remaining complaint with varying legal requirements. Such projects may or may not be decentralized but facilitating access to markets should bring value to those chains that achieve this at scale. Nuls, Chainlink, Polkadot, and Quant are some of the current leaders in this area though it’s far from clear whether any of them will gain meaningful traction over the coming years.

Finally, there are potential swing trade opportunities in the short term. Tokens with reasonable liquidity such as NEO and ONT may offer substantial upside as China moves to implement blockchain more broadly. This process may temporarily lift all boats as it were. However, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that well-established chains like NEO and Ontology will be adopted. From a risk/reward perspective, a targeted exit point in under a year seems optimal. Wait too long and you could see the entire position collapse overnight. Swing trading, however, is much more suited to folks who are already experienced day traders and therefore not a viable option for most retail investors who are exceedingly likely to move the goalposts once actually in a position.

In summary – China matters. The next few years will see it take centre stage as the CCP rolls out its version of crypto. Many will declare that the Beijing model is the only viable at-scale implementation of blockchain. They will be entirely wrong but it may take years for that to become clear. Over a long enough horizon – the centralized, state-supervised model of crypto embodied by China and a soon to follow slew of authoritarian regimes will end up being a profound catalyst for the widespread adoption of decentralized chains – and here is where the true investment potential lies.

Thanks for listening.

Series Links

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 4 of 5

Liberland news

December 12, 2019 (updated December 12, 2019) Published by

The Liberland delegation is witnessing launch of the GBO in Norway, Oslo. It will be a key partner for Liberland diplomatic relationships.

Alternative Development Organization is proud to announce the launch of its initiatives on 11 December 2019 at Hotel Continental in Oslo, Norway.With the next decade being more important than ever as humanity is at crossroads to either go with the current model of development or not, ADO has been actively moving forward to redesign the current socio-economic development model by uniting people, governments, and systems for a sustainable world.

Can Bill Ackman Do It Again With Agilent???

December 11, 2019 Published by

Trading is nothing but a numbers game…you hope your loses are smaller and hope your winners are much larger than your loses.  Take the billionaire, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square.  The hedge fund’s returns fell 4% in 2017, dropped 13.5% in 2016 and declined 20.5% in 2015, but lets look at some of his recent winners.

A year ago, billionaire, Bill took a $1 billion size position in home improvement Lowe’s because he thought there were opportunities to improve its supply chain to serve customers better and enhance the customer experience through strategic brands and differentiated in-store experiences.  I personally thought Bill was going to take another lost, but boy was I wrong. Bill got in the stock in May of 2018 and thus far that $1 billion is now worth $1.3 billion, a nice paper profit of $300 million thus far.

But Bill’s bigger win was in Chipotle.  Back in 2016, Bill’s Pershing Square bought almost 10% of the shares.  Bill thought Chipotle had a strong brand, differentiated offering, enormous growth opportunity, and was undervalued.

The following year Chipotle hired a new CEO, Brian Niccol.  At Taco Bell, Niccol was known for food menu innovation as well as driving technological advancements to the customer ordering process.  Under Brian’s leadership, digital sales quickly grew as Brian had hoped is that more and more customers will skip other eateries and just order their food at Chipotle.  And then a year later, Brian introduced a loyalty program.

And look what the stock has done since 2016….WOW.

And Chipotle is the gift that keeps on giving as Chipotle made up of 14% of Bill’s hedge fund returns of through mid-2019.

In the most recent news, Bill bought 2.9 million shares in Agilent Technologies on Monday. Agilent provides application focused solutions to the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets worldwide.  Essentially Agilent is a lab testing equipment maker.

Billionaire investor William Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management said Monday it bought shares in testing equipment company Agilent Technologies Inc, only its second new investment this year as the fund has reported a 51% return.

Agilent Technologies’ stock price jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after Ackman’s investment was made public in a regulatory filing. Ackman’s $7 billion fund earlier in the year bought Berkshire Hathaway Inc shares.

The filing did not say whether the Agilent investment will be active or passive, and Ackman’s spokesman declined to comment. The filing showed that Pershing Square owned 2.9 million shares at the end of September and did not say how big the position is currently. At Monday’s stock price, that stake would be worth $246 million.

Source

The fact that Bill and Warren Buffett own Agilent, something must be up. I really like the monthly demand near $60, but something tells me price isn’t going to get there anytime soon.

But there is also a great level at the weekly demand at $70 to go long as well.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

It’s a Good Day!

December 11, 2019 Published by

Today is a good day. I’m looking forward to its outcome.

My fight against governments is unending, a daily burden, but one which I undertake willingly.

I pride myself in fighting governments on every front that I possibly can: it doesn’t matter which level of government or even which country’s government I fight. As long as
I am making it hard for tyrants to be tyrants, then I am doing something right.

Today is a good day because, God willing, tonight I will get to confront a government official face to face. Tyrants being what they are, such opportunities are rare. “Democracy”
is only a word, a word which Representative Democracies have become the antithesis of.

I’m not naive, I know that I can’t change a politician. I can’t change a politician, but I may be able to help change politics! I will be in a room of influential people: voters, business elite, political party funders, and I fully intend to make best use of this opportunity to open their eyes.

The groundswell against politics in general is growing large, noticeable large – but that groundswell is generally confined to the lower levels. Richer citizens tend to ignore it,
they have more capacity to absorb tyranny – it doesn’t hurt them much and I doubt that they even notice it much of the time. Tonight I will do my best to enlighten the rich, and I will do this by backing the government
official into a corner, forcing them to expose their lies, greed and alternative agendas.

At least, I’ll make my best efforts to do so.

The rich have much to fear. While the average millionaire is not complicit in the day-to-day tyranny that representative democracies now are, WHEN the torches and pitchforks come out, there is no telling how far down they will go in their quest for vengeance and retribution. The average millionaires would thus do well to
enlighten themselves a little and to sympathise with the plight of those poorer then themselves. When business heavyweights start to pressure political parties and hold them accountable, that can have an immediate positive
effect on communities. No political party wants to deal with the bad press of a large company actively and publicly opposing them. If there is one thing a politician really despises, then it is the truth coming out of the
mouth of a well-known and crespected source.

And so the process continues: continually trying to open the eyes of those who have yet to see, or perhaps don’t want to see.

I’m tired of this fight, I’m really REALLY tired of it. It is a reality that I live 24/7/365, and one which I take seriously. The burden of constantly opposing corrupt governments is rather draining, because there is just so much damn evil to oppose!
I know that my many posts, blogs, emails, discussions etc often go completely ignored – but there is method to my madness.

I saw that earlier this week.

I tend to get a little shunned; not in the nasty “ostracised by the community” kind of way, but more in the “try to avoid him him, he’ll just berate you for voting
and tell you yet again why fiat money is evil” kind of way. People would rather not be around me, because “light conversation” with me tends to become rather heavy, and I won’t let them walk away without
the added burden of what they could be doing to help bring about change.

BUT

I’m right – and they know it.

There is a saying, something along the lines of “Nobody loves a warrior until the enemy is at the gate”. I am such a warrior, in more ways than one, and I wear that lack of love as a badge of pride.

And so it happens, that when the proverbial brown stuff hits the fan, suddenly I find myself to be popular again. That is what happened earlier this week.

Government (in my country) made such a large and obvious mess up, that the usually complacent sheep were temporarily jolted out of their rose-tinted slumber, and they took to social media
en masse to express their disapproval.

The words they used were heart-warming – because I saw them repeating words that I so often speak. You see, when you carry on and on and on until people are sick of you, something
you say sticks in their brains. Deep down they get the nagging feeling that all is not well. When circumstances eventually do become undeniably nasty, a little trigger fires in the back of their minds and they remember your
words.

I have made the most of this opportunity. I did not to welcome the newly awakened with open arms, but rather to chastise them for their regular conduct and to warn them against doing so
again in the future. I’m driving the lesson home. Next time around it they will react quicker and with more conviction…

It doesn’t take a lot of people to oust a tyrannical system of government, but it does take more than we have available at the moment. The longer the sheep keep their heads down and
try to ignore issues, the longer we will all suffer.

It is with that in mind that I go with a smile on my face to tonight’s meeting. I know that the politician stands no chance against me. True, it’s only a big fish in a small
pond, but this particular pond is a relatively large and significant one – the ramifications of losing control of it could have a major ripple
effect for a certain political party and even for my country as a whole. So I will be giving it my all. Wishes of good luck and prayers (irrespective of faith or denomination) are most welcome.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is coming. I absolutely believe in the power of decentralised cryptocurrencies and the revolutionary disruptive effect that they are capable of having on international finance. I
absolutely believe that governments can be starved of funding and can be rendered obsolete by blockchains; both in a financial and in an administrative role.

But Bitcoin is going to take time. The upcoming global stock market crash is not going to automatically result in cryptocurrencies replacing fiat currencies overnight. Sure, it will give
crypto an enormous boost, but this is not the crash that will spell the end of fiat forever, it will only be the beginning of the end.

It is still up to us to fight wherever we can: to fight for what is right – not legal. To fight for true patriotism – not the words and symbols created by politicians. To fight for liberty
and free will, not disguised socialism and “democracies” that aren’t democratic.

The battle is hard and the end is nowhere in sight. But if you and I don’t fight it, who will?

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Brave and EOS…Going In Opposite Directions

December 9, 2019 Published by

Brave is a decentralized,
open source browser that puts the user first by making online privacy its first
priority.  Brave also claims to be twice
as fast as Chrome on desktop and eight times faster than Safari on mobile.

The man behind the Brave
browser is CEO, Brendan Eich.  Brendan
started his career at Netscape Communications Corporation in April 1995 with
the intent to put Scheme “in the browser.” In early 1998, Brendan co-founded the Mozilla
project. And his most recent initiative was creating the Basic Attention Token (BAT), a cryptocurrency
designed for use in the Brave browser when users view and share in the ad revenue.
In the ecosystem, advertisers will give publishers BATs based on the measured
attention of users. Users will also receive some BATs for participating. They
can donate them back to publishers or use them on the platform

If you don’t care for the
ads, the Brave browser has an inbuilt ad and tracker blocker. The blocker
inhibits trackers from learning more about a user for monetization purposes.
But Brave is trying to fix the internet by improving the ad model.  In the words of founders of Brave “It is a
market filled with middlemen and fraudsters, hurting users, publishers and
advertisers.”  And Brave’s mission of
fixing the internet ad model is gaining traction.

Brave Browser is experiencing robust user growth, gaining another 1.7 million active users over the last three weeks by carving out the privacy niche from Google Chrome.

Since its 1.0 launch mid-November, Brave announced that the open source browser had gained another 1.7 million monthly active users, growing by 19% across all devices. Compared to last year, the numbers are even stronger. The browser’s userbase saw a two-fold increase in monthly active users and tripled its daily active users to 3.3 million.

As of today, verified content creators on the platform increased to over 340,000. The majority of these creators publish to YouTube (229,00), followed by Twitter (37,000), business and personal website publishing (38,000), and Twitch (18,000), among others.

Source

A nice level to potentially go long on the BAT is at the daily demand at $0.14.

The EOS blockchain was developed with the aim of facilitating efficient and scalable decentralized applications (dapps). The blockchain includes an operating-system like set of services and functions that works similarly to the ethereum platform.

Despite EOS being the world’s seventh-largest blockchain by market cap, my first issues is who in the hell has a year long initial coin offering (ICO)…which raised $4.1 billion in crypto for Block.One. My initial thought was they better deliver due to all the hype.

EOS works on an ownership model whereby users own and are entitled to use resources proportional to their stake, rather than having to pay for every transaction. So, in essence, if you hold N tokens of EOS then you are entitled to N*k transactions. And herein lies the issue.

EOS network’s governance issues continue to haunt them as Weiss Ratings recently downgraded the network from B category to C-. Weiss Ratings also posted a Twitter thread explaining why they had to downgrade the project which was once hyped as “Ethereum Killer.”

Weiss Ratings in its tweet claimed that although the public sentiment was right behind the project in its hayday and the platform was known for being a fast, efficient and most important a decentralized ecosystem. However, in the past year, there has been a continuous decline in the decentralization aspect where major whales control the majority of the token flow which could be of a deep concern.

Weiss Ratings claimed that the top 100 EOS token holders who represented a meager 0.01% of the total token holders on the platform, has a whopping 68% of the voting power on the network. This means these whales can easily manipulate the network as per their will.

Source

And now EOS block producers and developers devoted to building decentralized apps (dapps) are making little or no money from contributing to the health of the ecosystem. EOS Tribe even wrote about his experience on Steemit. They cited it’s longer possible to earn funds for maintaining the blockchain without support from major EOS whales.

Thus the chart suggest EOS is headed to the monthly demand at $1.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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