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So Was The FDA Approval Already Priced Into Amarin’s Stock???

Amarin Corporation plc, a pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapeutics for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases in the United States.

The company’s lead product is Vascepa, a prescription-only omega-3 fatty acid capsule, used as an adjunct to diet for reducing triglyceride levels in adult patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. It is also involved in developing Vascepa for the treatment of patients with high triglyceride levels who are also on statin therapy for elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

About a year ago, Amarin published results from a study that show patients who took Vascepa in addition to a statin experienced a 25% reduction in risk of a heart attack, stroke or other serious cardiac event, compared with patients who took a placebo instead of Vascepa. Thus, Amarin wants to get Vascepa approved for other use, which could potentially generate up $2 billion in sales.

Assuming avg. P/E of 15-24 for companies in the pharmaceutical space and Amarin’s market cap, if Vascepa sales can reach $2 billion in the years to come, the stock would be worth approx $125.

Yesterday, the FDA approved the label extension for Vascepa, but the stock price seem bored by the announcement.

Amarin (AMRN) investors are scratching their heads as to why the stock tumbled following the announcement that the FDA has approved the label extension of the company’s fish oil drug, Vascepa.

That’s good news for Amarin, but less good news for long-term investors. You see, according to the principle of “buy the rumor, sell the news,” the major catalyst for Amarin stock to rise has now been removed, and traders who were awaiting the FDA approval have now reaped all the gains they’re going to get from that particular catalyst. Hence, they’re selling the stock today.

One of these sellers, Stifel’s Derek Archila, wrote in a research note to clients, “We are taking profits post approval and heading to the sidelines.” Indeed, the analyst downgraded AMRN from Buy to Hold, while slightly raising the price target to $28 (from $26), which still implies about 20% upside from current levels.


Many think Amarin’s stock price at $22.88 is a steal and think the stock is worth $50 in the future.    According to FiercePharma, market chatter is now valuing the company at a $20 billion market cap, or $55 a share, if the company is acquired.  So is the stock still worth a buy?

NOTE: since Sept of 2018, the stock has increased from $3 to a little over $20 in 14 months.

To answer the question if the stock is still worth a buy or not, you have to know your time horizon.  Once you know your time horizon, than you can select your target price.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

ENJ technical analysis

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price has managed to close above the accumulation range, the previous candle has tested very well the high range of this area with strong buying pressure, we should have a continuation of the movement in the short and medium term, as soon as the price manages to close above the weekly bid located at 0.00001424 indicated within the chart by the horizontal black, the price can go up strongly, our profit targets are located within the chart by the horizontal upper black color.

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has made us a range on the diagonal support that we see indicated within the chart by the diagonal red color, we could have a new test of the area of supply located at 0.00001424 before a setback to the area of demand in 1D located at 0.00001165 indicated inside the graph by means of the horizontal purple color, if this scenario happens, we would have an ascending triangle in the minor figure as a sign of continuation bullish, inside the graph of above I have also indicated by means of the green arrows the series of HL that has formed us the structure of candles during the accumulation and ascent outside this range.

In conclusion, ENJ maintains an excellent bullish movement through a series of three HL during the movement out of the accumulation range, currently the price could be forming an ascending triangle as a sign of continuation, to follow the rise, the price must keep the daily demand zone located at 0.00001165, if this happens we could have a break in the weekly supply zone located at 0.00001424 and with this a strong bullish movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00001942, our second profit target is located at 0.00002402, our third profit target is located at 0.00002953, and the highest target is at 0.00004631, therefore, I recommend following the price action in 1D very closely and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin – Approaching 2020

Oh how I wish we were seeing the kind of Bitcoin price action that we saw back in December of 2017! Alas, it can’t always be a bull market. However, while reading this post, remember that when looking at investments it is LONG-TERM performance that counts! Everything else is just “noise”.

Let’s fall into the trap of getting lost in some of that noise – just for the hell of it, and thereafter we’ll zoom out and see how the long-term market looks.

All is well

Everything is still going according to plan (almost uncannily so), even if the trend is negative. Counter-intuitively, this is a positive sign: a predictable market is more stable and easier to analyse accurately, it has less chance of giving (good) analysts a shock.

The current market has been incredibly predictable. My post of 27 November (uncreatively titled “Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)”) shows exactly how predictable that market is, and how I am still calling the market today based on analysis that is now five months old. I strongly recommend reading that post as background to this one, it gives a much better indication of the age and accuracy of these predictions, as well as an explanation of what they are based on.


The yellow price prediction line seen in the post mentioned above is still in play. Remember: it is a rough indication of expected price movement – a “best guess” scenario and should only be taken as such.

The fact that it is still doing a good job 29 days after its creation is a positive sign. With BTC price sitting where it is right now, we can see that the prediction line is sitting about $500 below it. Again, don’t read too much into that, but – it is likely that price may drop another $500 or so before reaching the turnaround level.

The descending channel (you DID read that post I recommended earlier, didn’t you?) is still the dominant local price-governing pattern.

You can see my faint Fib-levels within the structure of the channel, levels which determine short-term price jumps, but which will ultimately become inconsequential in the long-term. Like other savvy investors, I have been making use of these levels to stack sats when BTC dips to the lowest levels, it helps a little with ROI in the long-term.


Looking at 2019 in isolation, it is noteworthy that despite not being a great year, BTC is up 91.69% from its start-of-year price ($3691.87 on Coinbase at 00:00 GMT on 1 January; measured to time of writing). Annual performance is a trivial and arbitrary figure, but the more traditional financial markets are fascinated by such numbers, so why not ask them how many of their assets can match that figure?

Far more importantly on this chart, we see the triple convergence point of three support lines: medium-term, semi-long-term and long-term. We are just passing the end of that convergence point right now!

An explanation of this convergence point can once again be found in the previous post, though we will cover it briefly on the next chart. The significance of passing this point is that BTC price movement should now turn positive.

Hark. Bit Brain has spoken.

“Turning positive” implies that BTC price will start to move towards the top of the six-month-old descending channel and eventually break through it. For what it’s worth, my charts place that breakout date in the second week of March 2020. Consider that date to be highly flexible, though it shouldn’t happen much later than that.


As I said above, this chart gives an idea of where the other two converging lines originate from (the third line of the convergence point being the base of the descending channel). This is why BTC is now crossing a triple-support threshold.

The “Long-term base trendline” is the most important of the three lines by a country mile. It is the only line that will carry and meaningful significance into 2020.

It is critical that BTC does not execute a definitive break through this trendline. At five years old, it has been Bitcoin’s reliable support level for half of BTC’s life, a situation which I deem unlikely to change soon. A small break below it (such as that of late 2015) is fine, but a big break would mean that all bets are off and that I need to go back to the analysis drawing board.

It is worth nothing that long-term BTC trends may curve slightly downwards as opposed to being straight like this trendline is. But beware of taking the majority of curved-line posts too seriously! I’m sure you’ve all seen the popular “stock-to-flow” charts circulating around; it’s a pity they are just very broad and largely useless “predictions” – much like a TA version of “psychic” readings or astrology. Perhaps I’ll write a post to debunk them sometime, or perhaps you can just read these two posts and figure the problem out for yourself: (in addition to the problem of the ridiculously wide channels they use – which still get breached.)

In fact, ENSURE you read those posts, since the economics behind halvings is still ridiculously misunderstood in the crypto space.


Passing the convergence zone today finally puts us back on the path towards higher prices. The mini bull run of May/June did us no favours – prematurely pushing the price of BTC high above the base trendline and causing it to fall for the remainder of the year. That fall should now finally come to an end, though is has already caused further damage (after that caused in 2018) to the altcoin market and its credibility.

I see this as a great time to buy: we are at the (probable) end of a descending channel, near the bottom of that channel and about to hit firm support and an upwards trend. The altcoin market lies in tatters, meaning that many literally unbeatable deals await the brave investor. Having spent a little money on large-cap alts recently, I think that I may be ready to chance a little on smaller cap coins now. The opportunity to buy into genuinely good crypto projects with a total market cap of $1 mil or less is too good to pass up on!

If anyone is going away soon and won’t be reading my blog for a while: I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Please travel safely and don’t do anything silly like drinking and driving. I did some of that in my younger days and it is nothing to be proud of – it’s just incredibly stupid and selfish. Be better than I was.

May Santa bring all of you big bags of cryptocurrencies!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

Tandem Diabetes Is Worth Keeping An Eye On

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and commercializes various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States.

Diabetes is a chronic disease that occurs either when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin or when the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces. Insulin is a hormone that regulates blood sugar. Hyperglycaemia, or raised blood sugar, is a common effect of uncontrolled diabetes and over time leads to serious damage to many of the body’s systems, especially the nerves and blood vessels

More than 100 million U.S. adults are now living with diabetes or prediabetes, according to a new report released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The report finds that as of 2015, 30.3 million Americans – 9.4 percent of the U.S. population –have diabetes. Another 84.1 million have prediabetes, a condition that if not treated often leads to type 2 diabetes within five years.


The company’s flagship product is the t:slim X2 insulin delivery system that comprises t:slim X2 pump, its 300-unit disposable insulin cartridge, and an infusion set. It also provides t:slim X2 Insulin Delivery System with Basal-IQ Technology; t:slim X2 with G5 Integration; and Tandem Device Updater that allows users to update their pump’s software

Tandem’s t:slim X2 is the smallest durable insulin pump on the market at present and is the only pump in the US market that offers remote software updates. Also, the insulin pump integrates with Dexcom’s G6 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, is the first automated insulin-delivery system approved for use in children as young as six years old.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) also sells disposable products that are used together with pumps and are replaced every few days.These disposable products are great because they produce reoccurring revenue (think of the disposable razors for the Gillette razor blade…which I hate buying because I know they are overpriced).

Since 2012,Tandem has sold over 72,000 pumps in the US, but 63,000 pumps have been sold in the last four years. In addition, Tandem is also going international to capture opportunities after Johnson & Johnson’s exit from the insulin pump market. This is good because Tandem has penetrated less than 1% of the total addressable diabetes market worldwide.

In recent weeks, Tandem attained Health Canada approval for the t:slim X2 insulin pump with Basal-IQ technology. This approval is expected to accelerate Tandem Diabetes’ global pump shipments and expand its customer base.

But just the other day, Tandem got better news.

Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) nabbed Food and Drug Administration clearance for a new diabetes management system Friday — prodding TNDM stock to pop midday.

The FDA cleared a diabetes management system dubbed Control-IQ to work with Tandem’s insulin pump, dubbed t:slim X2. The closed loop system works with Dexcom’s (DXCM) continuous glucose monitor. The devices automatically adjust insulin to prevent high and low blood sugar.

With the clearance, the FDA also created a new category for interoperable medical devices, known as an automated insulin dosing system. This diabetes management system has the potential to rival devices from Medtronic (MDT).


The potential to take on Medtronic is a big deal as Medtronic is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. One should keep Tandem on their radar screen and the levels to pay attention to are the weekly zones near $80 and near $45.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 59

Overall, the charts look set in their bearish ways. A Christmas rally seems increasingly unlikely. Thankfully, there are plenty of other areas worth focusing on from central banks announcing plans to roll out their own versions of crypto to China’s daily expansion into blockchain. This week’s recap focuses, in particular, on the Chinese Communist Parties ‘plans’ for the cryptosphere.

Picks of the Week

This report on the current state of play of blockchain in China. This podcast wrapping up a 5 part series on the same topic and this article examining the CCP’s ’embrace of blockchain’ but evident antipathy towards Bitcoin.


This BTC thing will never catch-on:

A perspective on why BTC price lags apparent interest:

BTC halving likely to lead to a price rise?:

Over a thousand companies in Hainan province alone are in
some way engaged with blockchain:

On EOS achievements to date:

China’s embrace of blockchain is neither benign or destined to succeed:

Peer to peer cash – why its hard to achieve ad why it matters (highly recommended):

Gold and yields showing remarkable divergence:


BTC is not failing:

Is BTC really deflationary?:

China ‘loves’ blockchain but ‘dislikes’ BTC – so why is that? (recommended):

BTC halving impact will have minimal market effect:

Is BTC in its ‘chasm phase’? (highly recommended):

The complex reality of Altcoin tokenomics (recommended):

A report on one of the first EOS blockchain games (recommended):

Excellent overview of the current state of the blockchain industry in China (leads to a link to download the report – highly recommended):

HEX is a clever scam but a scam nonetheless:


Deciphering China’s role in blockchain – Part 5 of 5 (highly recommended):



A good overview of possible trends for crypto 2020:

BTC’s ROI is decreasing each cycle but still impressive:

Anton Antonopoulos on EOS (highly recommended):

REX is back up and running + a little context on DAPP costs (recommended):

Colin shares his views on a wide range of crypto topics:


Whose buying BTC (on Localbitcoins):


A useful visual guide to the main forks BTC soft/hard over the years:


It’s been a heck of a run for equities:


Website / Utility

Useful website for researching DeFi projects:


Lots to take-in. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Dear Mister Prime Minister

With your election of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it is with great pleasure that I send you my warmest congratulations. I fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that you face and wish you every success in your role. 

The Rt. Honourable Boris Johnson
Prime Minister’s Office
10 Downing Street 
London SW1A 2AA 
United Kingdom

Dear Mister Prime Minister,

With your election of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it is with great pleasure that I send you my warmest congratulations. I fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that you face and wish you every success in your role. 

There is no doubt that his momentous election has been watched with much attention by the international community. It is my sincere hope that our two countries will establish cooperation. I assure you of the support of the Free Republic of Liberland. 

Please accept, Prime Minister the expression of my highest and most cordial consideration.

Most Respectfully,

Vit Jedlicka