Personal Crypto Strategies

I doubt that many of you have studied “Strategy” as an academic subject. It’s hardly something used in the everyday life of most people.

But in military circles and in the upper echelons of civilian National Strategy, it does play an important role.

Before I relate strategies to cryptocurrencies, we need to level the playing field. When I say the word “strategy”, we need to all have a common understanding of what that means. 

What is a “Strategy”?

Warfare is conducted at various levels. The three main levels are tactical, operational and strategic.

Tactical happens on the battlefield. Tactical decisions are made by unit commanders and their teams. The choice to use grenades instead of suppressive machine gun fire is a tactical one. The option of detaching a squad to flank an enemy that your platoon is fighting is a tactical one.

Operational decisions are made by those in charge of several fighting units. The operational commander would make decisions such as deploying the platoon to the battlefield in the first place. He would be given an objective and a variety of forces. How he (or she) employs those forces is an operational level consideration.

Strategic decisions are made by those who earn too much money and are too far away from the real action. Okay, that’s just me being facetious (but it’s still true). A strategy is an overarching plan encompassing all available forces. A strategy tells you how you are going to meet a specific goal, and what that goal is e.g. “repel Hussein’s invading forces from Kuwait”. At the national level you can also get “Grand Strategies” – which are basically very long-term goal that your shorter-term strategies align with. Don’t worry too much about Grand Strategies.

Ends, Ways and Means

In very simple terms, a strategy is comprised of three main things: Ends, Ways and Means.

If we are to apply a strategy to crypto, then we need to understand the relationship between these concepts.

Ends are the goals of strategies. As the name suggests, they are your desired endpoint. Once your ends have been achieved, your strategy has succeeded. Depending on what those ends are, your strategies may no longer even be required after reaching them. 

Example: “To neutralise all enemy military forces in the Pacific theatre of war”.

Ways are the methods of achieving Ends. The Ways are the “How?”, “When?” and “Where?” – they are what you are going to do.

Example: “We will cut off fuel supplies to enemy air and naval assets in the Pacific, thereby causing them to run out of operationally deployable fighting forces over the period of the next month”.

Means are the tools used to execute the Ways. The means are the “Who” and the “What?” of the Ways

Example: “Special forces will be deployed from submarines to destroy the enemy’s hardened underground fuel depots. Naval forces will destroy fuel refineries and pipelines from over the horizon. Air Force units will destroy fuel transport vehicles and ad hoc targets of opportunity”.

We can apply this to crypto.

Crypto Strategies

On the Grand Strategy level we can say that crypto exists to replace world money systems and to disrupt and replace the existing money/power dynamic. That’s way beyond what we as individuals can do. We all play a little part of that larger game, but it’s not what this post is about. Let’s rather look at whatyou can influence to a large degree, what You can do for Yourself.

So you’re a crypto investor, or a trader, or both. Perhaps you work for a crypto company, or perhaps you started your own crypto company. Maybe you just enjoy writing about it in blogs like the one you’re reading now, or maybe you watch adverts on Brave browser all day so that you can build up free BAT tokens and give tips to sites that depend on voluntary funding. 

Whatever you do with crypto, it’s time to start asking yourself: What’s my endgame?

Why are you doing what you are doing? What is the logical conclusion? What are you trying to achieve? Where and when does it stop?

In other words: What are the Ends of your strategy?

Do you have them? Are they well defined? Do you know exactly what you want crypto to do for you?

Admission of guilt

I don’t have a proper crypto strategy! 

I have broad crypto investing strategies. I have a few fairly well-defined goals which I aim to meet, but honestly, I lack that endpoint. I’m writing this today because when I realised this, I realised that others may be in the same boat.

A Crypto Strategy is NOT:

“I want to reach a total of 100 BTC by 2030” or “I want 1 million USD worth of crypto” or “I want to survive the fiat crash by investing in crypto”.

Why not?

Because crypto ISN’T an End, it’s not even a Way; it’s a Means to an End.

You’ve heard the expression “means to an end” before? Now you know where it comes from. ?

Get a strategy

I was walking around my garden earlier today, playing with my dogs and enjoying relaxing outside under the clear blue sky. I was extremely content, but bothered because I knew that my contentment came from shutting out the many evils of the world that I am only too aware of.

For now I fight those evils daily. I have been very active in challenging my government this year: there is a long paper trail of me, both in my personal capacity and aligned with multiple civic groups, opposing injustices at every turn. Similarly, I try to fight the bigger international fight (in support of the Grand Strategy of crypto mentioned earlier), some of which you can see on this very blog or on my Twitter account.

But I’m just one man and I can’t do it alone. I realise that I am not doing it alone: many great people fight alongside me – some in small ways, some in big ways. You may be one of them. I won’t stay young forever. I also know (thanks to years of high stress military deployments) that my capacity to endure a high intensity struggle in a negative environment is finite.

In simple terms: I can’t do this forever.

At some stage I need to say that enough is enough, and hand the torch over to the next generation. I need to cash in my chips and leave the casino. I need to be able to sit in my garden and play with my dogs under the clear blue sky, while not worrying about the evils of the world.

But for now, I am still furiously playing the game. What I need to do next is to further align my daily activities with my desired end goal: I need to define the Ends of my strategy and work towards them.

Exactly how I do that will be my Ways. I can only firmly establish those once I know the Ends. I trust that my crypto investments will be the Means, or at least one of the Means I will use to execute my Ways.

The End State (Ends of the Strategy)

I may not have well defined end state to my strategy yet, but I know some of the characteristics that I want it to possess: financial freedom, a pleasant political and social environment in a country which embraces true liberty, a relaxed lifestyle in a safe environment, the ability to work on relationships rather than business and finances etc. 

It may sound idyllic and a bit like a pipe dream, but it’s something to work towards. I might not find something that checks all the boxes, but at least those boxes give me a target to aim for.

For those who seek to form their own strategies: an example of a Way to achieve something like what I stated above could be: “reduce fiat holdings to a bare minimum” or “aim to build up 10 BTC in crypto” or one of those other things that I said are not a strategy in themselves.

Conclusion

Life is a journey, and crypto is a part of that journey. God willing, my journey will allow for a period of rest towards the end, a time when I can pull off the busy highway and spend a few years at my final destination in peace and quiet. I can’t tell if that will be possible, but I will do what I can to make that an eventual reality. That is my plan, my End, my strategy.

Until then, I will keep fighting the crypto (and other) battles. Evil triumphs when good men do nothing. If evil is ever going to triumph, then it’s going to have to go through me first. I still have a good couple of decades of fight left in me, before I retire and seek out my version of a Utopian little house with a white picket fence. 

Advice time: if you are still young, plan for your future as if you were suddenly going to turn 80 tomorrow. You have no idea how fast time and ageing catches up with you. I did a pretty good job of planning for old age when I was still young, but even so I wish I had done more. Your generation has so much more available to it: electronic banking, broadband internet, cryptocurrencies, easily accessible trading options for precious metals/forex/etc – you can do a LOT more than I did if you start early!

Despite a very strong American and international business culture to the contrary, money is not everything. Money is not “success”! Money will NEVER make you happy. As long as you can lift yourself above the level of “financially struggling” (which can be very hard to do), you can be happy. Try to make a few clever investments while you are still young, so that money is no longer a worry when you are older. Then you can enjoy life. 

Look at Warren Buffett: 89 years old, worth 84 Billion USD – but do you think he’s ever enjoyed his life? Do you think he’s ever stopped to smell the roses? I think he’s a miserable old sod, a greedy and small-minded man who cares far too much about wealth and not nearly enough about the things that matter. He’s too busy greedily hoarding his money to ever enjoy spending it! Don’t be like Warren.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Ethereum Chart Showing Positive Signs

The month of September had been constructive for ETH. If you look at the chart you will see three positive things occurred with price.

Break of Down Trend (descending triangle)

As you can see from the blue down trend line when price pushed down to support in that 168 area it was open to hold and then push the descending line.

This led to a modest bounce before a retest.

Retesting of Support/Down Trend Line

After the modest little bounce, two things happened: price testes the support line and tested the down trendline, which both happen to be at about the same price.

Anytime you get a break of a trend, a successful retest of it is always welcomed and considered positive price action.

Higher Low Formed

After the retest price pushed higher into the mid 180s or so and then had a small pullback briefly dipping into the 170s. At which point price has pushed higher the past few days.

This is important because in order to have an uptrend you need to see price create higher lows. Which just got one now we need more.

Price needs to stay above 180 for this recent price action to keep it’s positive tone, in my opinion.

The next upside target would be around 200. We shall see what happens the rest of the week.

Will The Russell 2000 Finally Join The Party???

On Tuesday the Fed Powell
will discuss US monetary policy and on Weds will announce whether he is keeping
interest rates on hold or dropping them.  In July Fed Powell lowered interest rates for
the first time in a decade.  Wall Street
is expecting the same on Weds, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-basis
point cut.

If the US equity markets are going to continue their climb higher, the Russell 2000 must fall inline.  The Russell 2000 index represents the largest 2000 small cap public companies in the US.  But in recent months the Russell 2000 have been stubborn to rise with the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 as indicated by the green line.

Source

Usually towards the end of the business cycle, rising interest rates hurt smaller companies the most because they have a higher debt to earnings ratio and lower free cash flow relative to much larger companies.  Also, smaller companies are more volatile and tend to react and respond to changes in economic conditions and changes in investor sentiment first. However, if rates are going to continue to get cut, that should help the Russell 2000 to finally join the party. And based on the Russell 2000 outpacing its friends last week, I think it things a rate cut is already “money in the bag.”

Source

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks the Russell 2000 Index of stocks with smaller market capitalizations, saw its largest weekly inflows in nearly a year during the week that ended September 6. Those inflows totaled $1.5 billion and followed a $340 million inflow during the final days of August. Since bottoming out on August 27, the iShares ETF has rallied nearly 9% compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 5% over the same period.

There is the possibility that the resurgence could be longer lasting if the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of July is more than just a one-off and marks the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle.

Judging by history, further rate cuts would be supportive of small-cap equities. During the first year following the start of a Fed rate-cut cycle, small caps have risen on average 28% compared with just 15% for large caps, according to investment banking firm Jeffries, per the FT.

Source

Thus the chart suggests the two levels to monitor above price are the daily supply at $1630 and $1665.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crude Oil Analysis Report 9-15-19…Oil Will Gap Higher Sunday Evening

Fracking and horizontal drilling technology (which has created access to the once inaccessible shales of oil and gas) in the last 10 years has made the US a major player in the world of oil production.

fracking graphic

Source Image 

The technology has bee so beneficial to the US, that in 2018, the US become the number one producer of oil in the world.   However, I can’t leave Saudi Arabia out of this conversation.  They are the number two producer of oil in the world at 12.4 millions barrels/day.  As you know, the price of oil is probably one of the clearest examples of supply and demand. So say the oil rig count goes up in the US or Saudia Arabia increases oil production, the price of oil is surely to go down.  However, if the oil rig count goes down or if the oil pipelines are sabotaged, supply will take a hit and oil prices will rise. This past Sat, drones attacked Saudia Arabia oil pipelines.

Drone strikes on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities, among the world’s largest and most important energy production centers, have disrupted about half of the kingdom’s oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saturday took responsibility for the attacks, saying 10 drones targeted state-owned Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency.

In a statement on Sunday, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that 5.7 million barrels a day of crude oil and gas production have been affected. The latest OPEC figures from August 2019 put the total Saudi production at 9.8 million barrels per day.

Source

So at the open on the crude oil futures Sunday at 6 pm eastern, I expect price to gap up,

but I have no idea if price will fill the gap that day because price is still within a $5 range going back to the beginning of August.

Thus the chart suggests to play the extremes, until they are broken, but always keep in mind of the bigger picture.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 46

A ridiculous number of high-quality articles have crossed my path this week. I’ve included just a few. The opportunity to be challenged and engaged while exploring the mad, bad and sometimes sad world of crypto is not to be underestimated, it is truly a learner’s paradise – just keep that open mind and delve on!


Pick of the Week

If you explore only one thing – let it be Nic Carter’ treatise on BTC as a vehicle of peaceful revolution.


Twitter

World currencies in a race to devalue means…:
https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1172221635958648838

How ‘to Bitcoin’:
https://twitter.com/melikmanukyan/status/1168969406501793792

Where to start your crypto journey (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1168808222527873025

Adding some context to Van Eck’s moves of offer a BTC product:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1168909634381471747

Look, see, understand:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaGEdwards/status/1168799874671923200

There’s a pattern here:
https://twitter.com/meshikharv/status/1168848992433606658

A contrarian perspective on trading but a considered one:
https://twitter.com/hodloncomrades/status/1172745092848701440

On passion (not that kind):
https://twitter.com/katherineykwu/status/1171972627113680896

A quick primer on global gold reserves:
https://twitter.com/theworldindex/status/1168725510651858946


Articles

Nic Carter explaining the Bitcoin revolution (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/a-most-peaceful-revolution-8b63b64c203e

A perspective on the long-term growth cycle of BTC:
https://medium.com/@hcburger1/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

An in-depth analysis of recent BTC price action and likely trade scenarios (highly recommended):
https://trybe.one/buying-btc-for-investors-current-market

High-value post on investing in the crypto space (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/cryptocurrency-investing-101-common-pitfalls-to-avoid-hopefreiheit-com-bc58829d3ef3

Token supply approaches examined (highly recommended)
https://medium.com/messaricrypto/crypto-monetary-policies-bef1779e1422

A collection of proposals/ideas on how to approach ‘fixing’ EOS governance (highly recommended):
https://www.eosgo.io/blog/ideas-that-might-fix-eos-governance/

Even some bankers decry current monetary policy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/deutsche-bank-warns-of-grave-side-effects-from-more-ecb-cuts


Podcast

Another informative discussion of BTC past, present, and future with a heavy hitter in the Bitcoin space (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/michael-goldstein-president-satoshi-nakamoto-institute/id1434060078?i=1000448789132


YouTube

Examining the question of individual BTC address safety:


Straightforward explanation of how Bitcoin functions with a simple primer on fiat:


What’s up with NEO – lots to dig into here in this interview with NEO’s head of global development (recommended – if only as an update):


EOS clearly has some governance issues (recommended):


This short-term call on gold is well worth considering (though has the ECB reset sentiment and boosted gold?):


Infographics

If only there was a pattern here…

https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1169155098716581889/photo/1


Interesting comparison of Bitcoin Cash v Lightning Network over the last year:

https://messari.io/c/research/messari-research-comparing-bitcoin-cash-and-bitcoin-s-lightning-network


Website / Utility

One of the first websites to bring together BTC resources. Very sparse landing page but a deep reservoir of material here spanning BTC’s entire operational life (highly recommended):

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/


This real-time representation of Bitcoin Cash v Bitcoin is supposed to show the transaction superiority of Bitcoin Cash but perhaps shows something else – you decide (BTC is the bottom lane).

https://txhighway.com/


A whale of a week in terms of learning opportunities. As always, looking forward to reading your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

EOS Price Showing Signs of Strength

EOS is testing resistance again as we speak. After making a run at the 3.90 area it took a little breather before making this next attempt.

What I like is that we only saw a very modest pullback on very light volume the past few days before today’s push.

There are no guarantees we see price breakthrough, but if it does then 4.20 and 4.60 are the next upside targets I am watching.

As for the downside, I’d like to see price hold 3.70 so that this higher low that was just put in remains valid.

Crypto Contest September 14: Vodi X

Vodi X (Bittrex: VDXUSDT) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Vodi X began a wave one advance on September 4. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on September 10, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Vodi X should be heading next towards the September 10 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Vodi is a mobile platform boasting 5+ million users in over 200 countries and is tokenizing its ecosystem by launching Vodi X. You can watch their latest update below.

(Sources: Vodi X and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

If you have done a couple large renovation projects then you know what I’m talking about.   When estimating rehab costs – always add a buffer on top of your total number.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

This isn’t about how good an investor is at estimating the costs of repairs and replacements.   Most of us can get good at that with some experience.

This is about the stuff that you generally can’t foresee. The stuff that just pops up, and trust me there will be things that pop-up.  Especially if you are working with properties that are much older.  In fact, the older the property the more likely you will have “surprises.”

Real Life Examples

I’m going to keep it simple and give you a “cheapie” I’ve personally experienced so not to scare you off.  Just know, the surprises can range much higher is cost.

This is one of the reasons I stress performing as much due diligence on a property as you can before purchasing.

There are many “surprises” that can be avoided – then there are some that are just part of doing business.

My latest example fits into that category.

Main Water Valves and Sleeves

We are finishing up a major renovation on a property that was built in 1901.  However, along the way we got caught with a few surprises.  One of which had to do with the main water shutoff and the sleeve pipe that runs to the water department’s main valve.

Long story short is the sleeve had become so cockeyed that it was not possible to access the valve to turn it back on.  Considering you need water in a home this was a bit of a must fix.

The real question was – is the sleeve bad or the valve too.   Either way we needed to have a qualified operator come in a do his thing to repair.

After widening the opening to the exterior piping/valve and doing a little digging out the earth he was able to access the sleeve to replace and test the valve.  

Good news – valve was fine.  Bad news – sleeve needed to be replaced.  $1200 later all is good an we can got water turned on.

Unexpected cost, yes, but at only $1200 feelt like a win.  Here’s the things though.  What happens when you have 4 or 5 items come up that cost that?

Since this property was so old that is exactly what happened because things needed to be up to code.  Replacing the side door entrance became a $1500 costs instead of $300 because of all the layers of siding that had been slapped on over the decades.  The flashing had been bumped out so far it was a mess and we basically needed to re-frame it.

These examples are the cheap ones.  I have heard plenty of stories from other investors that got hit with $5-10K “surprises.”

Add a Reno Budget Buffer

This is why on the majority of big rehab projects I always slap an extra $10K on my total expected budget.

If the numbers still work with that then I know in the end I should come out in decent shape and better yet, if the “surprises” are limited or not existent than the deal becomes even more profitable.

Always be working your numbers and buying right!

To get the full guide on how I buy right check out the videos or the book.  Remember to use the property calculator when analyzing deals!

Crypto Contest September 13: Contentos

Contentos (Binance: COSBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Contentos began a wave one advance on August 5. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 8, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Contentos should be heading next towards the August 8 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Contentos is a decentralized global content ecosystem. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Contentos and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Please click the link below to listen to the 53rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.



External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-can-crypto-fail/id1441492450?i=1000449580399

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-ck86f-bf4bbf


Transcript

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s episode examines the idea of crypto being a failed experiment destined for the ‘ah well’ ideas bin of history. Well, It’s possible, right? Right? No, no not at all.

Of course, in absolute terms anything is possible but setting aside cataclysmic events that wind back the tech clock – crypto is here to stay.

While it’s true that history is indeed littered with good ideas that went nowhere – the ideas phase of crypto is long past. For over a decade now we have seen a blockchain store and transact value without the need for permission from any central authority. This is powerful juju. Bitcoin has survived many trials and tribulations from exchange hacks to hard forks. While elegant design, a fortuitous genesis, and communal efforts have all played their part – it is the proof of concept that has supported BTC through each and every struggle it has faced. By proof of concept, I mean, man for the first time I history now has the means to transfer value across time and space without the need of a permission-giving middleman. There is no harbour master, no caravaneer, no border official, no bank notary. If you will it and you possess Bitcoin – you may now move wealth as you wish. Sure, there’s a fee, a toll if you like and miners which process transactions but this is procedural -automatic – no documents or permission are required.

Now Bitcoin may well fail. Indeed, every iteration of blockchain currently in the market may fail but the genie is most certainly out of the bottle. Believing that crypto will disappear assumes that people will simply abandon permissionless, value transfer and meekly return to the bank and state-dominated fold. Given the fundamental shift in financial autonomy that crypto offers, it is exceedingly unlikely that the tech itself would be abandoned even if the first generations of this tech were all to fail. I mean it’s possible, but when you ponder it, is it likely?

Now what is likely is that crypto will fork into two distinct implementations – one decentralized and empowering, the other state-controlled and dystopian. As with any technological innovation, it is as open to abuse as holistic use. China is already well on its way to rolling out a state-issued cryptocurrency – one which will no doubt aim to further increase its control over its citizens. State crypto will allow the government to track, coerce and punish those who would oppose it. Imagine a future where you post a comment in a chatroom, only to find yourself locked out of your own accounts…and unable to spend your ‘own ‘money all at the push of a button or the whim of some automated surveillance software…that day is nigh.

Concurrently, we will see the further development of decentralized networks for the storing and transacting of value – empowering both the individual and the economies of which they are part. In the coming years, both iterations of crypto will flourish in some cases within the same jurisdictions. As to the victor – decades lie between us and that outcome.

Thanks for listening.