In Elliott Wave terms, Algorand began a wave one advance on August 1. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 2, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on August 8. If this wave count is correct, Algorand should be heading next towards the August 2 peak in the red wave three.
Algorand is a public, permissionless, pure proof of stake blockchain that ensures full participation, protection and speed within a truly decentralized network. Boxmining covered the project earlier this week.
Just spent time scanning through the charts looking for a top 50 coin to buy on a trade. Struggled to find anything that was giving me a buy single – UGH.
Indecision and selling pressure
Bitcoin has pushed higher of late and the alts have not followed at all. However, I’m not buying bitcoin after it ripped 2,000 points the past week.
I do like the consolidation it is doing now, as if it actually wants to leg up again. I’ll believe it when I see it and for now will just hold my long-term bag. I buy coin on pullbacks for the most part.
LTC and ETH – nothing says buy at the moment
As you can see litecoin looks rather indecisive after retreating from that head and shoulders topping pattern. I like that it is atleast hanging on here in the middle of the range as that is less bearish, but price action certainly isn’t bullish.
Ethereum looks like it just failed at the 230 level again so not a time to get long. Ideally we see some unexpected buying and it pushes through that level, but that is just a gamble.
And I could continue on. EOS doesn’t look much different nor many other coins. There is some strength here and there, such as BNB past couple days, but that trade entry is long gone.
I’m sitting on my long-term bag with my active trading capital idle on the sidelines for now.
Well it looks like Binance KYC information is all over the internet.
I couldn’t possibly provide links to all the articles I’ve read about it, because they are a dime a dozen. In case you somehow missed them all, here is one, just as an example: https://www.coindesk.com/binance-kyc-issue
Let’s get one thing very clear from the beginning: I’m not anti-Binance. As you can clearly see from my previous blog posts and Tweets, I’m actually a big fan of Binance and of CZ. My only real problem with them is their overly agnostic stance towards cryptocurrencies, even the dreaded Libra.
This is also not one of the (many) posts telling you to panic because your data has been compromised. Panic is stupid and never helps anything. It’s far better to remain calm and find a solution to the problem. It would help if Binance was a little more responsive/open about this issue – take note Binance: rapid and truthful PR is essential in such cases. People don’t panic when they know the truth, they panic when they don’t know what’s going on or when they find out that they were lied to.
This post is a reminder of what I warned you about previously, the evils of KYC.
“Try to give you warning, but everyone ignores me. Told you everything loud and clear, but nobody’s listening. Call to you so clearly, but you don’t want to hear me. Told you everything loud and clear, but nobody’s listening.”
~ Nobody’s Listening – Linkin Park (R.I.P. Chester Bennington)
I will be the first to admit that public dissemination of your KYC data was not (and still is not) first and foremost on my list of KYC-related concerns. But: I did warn you about KYC in general, and proclaimed it to be a bad thing, a bad thing which is being done in an even worse way.
I have big issues with KYC. How many of you remember this article?
I wrote it a little over two months ago. Do you remember some of the things which I said in there?
“KYC IS BAD FOR CRYPTO”
“KYC obviously stands against some of the very principles that crypto is built on!
The ability to transact with anyone, anywhere, anonymously is a core concept built into the crypto way of doing business. The matter of asking someone for their identity before agreeing to carry out crypto transactions with them should never even be raised!”
“Crypto was based on a zero-trust model which uses cryptographic methods to ensure trust. IT DOES NOT NEED INDIVIDUAL IDENTITIES IN ORDER TO FUNCTION!”
“A crypto system which demands the identities of its participants is a self-destructive system. It unbalances crypto as a whole and works against the principles on which crypto is built.”
I think that the truth behind my warnings is now starting to become apparent. It doesn’t really matter how or why your KYC data was compromised, or even who did it. What matters is that your data was able to be compromised in the first place! Fact: there is no such thing as a foolproof system. This is especially true in crypto, the cryptospace is still new and many loopholes have yet to be found. This will not be the last such incident! We need to eradicate the procedures which leave us vulnerable!
If Binance had not had any KYC data, then there would have been nothing to leak! Yes, I DO understand regulatory need for KYC / AML etc, we’ll get to that later. But first, let’s look at more of what I had to say in my anti-KYC article:
“…if I need to identify myself in order to make a crypto transaction, why would I not just use a fiat one instead? Either way I’m going to have to comply with regulations. Either way I’m going to end up paying taxes on it. Either way my identity will be known. What KYC does is to strip the usefulness away from crypto, thereby undermining its value and making it not worthwhile investing in!”
…and leading on from that…
“If my crypto has no benefit to me, then my crypto has no value to me. Then it’s just another unbacked, regulated means of exchange. I have no need for another one of those, I have enough trouble with fiat money as it is.”
Now this is where regulations and centralised exchanges really start to come into it:
“I DON’T agree with KYC procedures which exist to placate the demands of centralised entities, but I do agree with identification procedures that are required to carry out basic business transactions.”
“Centralised crypto exchanges in particular are starting to look more and more like banks (as mentioned by Heidi in her Monday “Crypto tips” video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91f-QNSmzrA&t= ). Let’s be very clear here: an exchange does NOT require your name or phone number to change one coin into another!“
“Dealing in crypto is not the same as dealing with fiat based assets, crypto is not linked to government assets and governments have absolutely no right to attempt to regulate it. One of the greatest attractions of crypto is that is is beyond the reach of regulations, if crypto is to succeed then it needs to remain that way! Don’t let your own government fool you into thinking that you have to play crypto by their rules, you don’t. Find a way around the rules. Crypto is decentralised, it is designed to to able to avoid such regulations! Giving in to regulations and supporting them is akin to driving a knife into crypto’s back, get out of the crypto space if you want to be like that, it’s counter-productive and will devalue the very asset which you are investing in.”
“KYC is part of the slippery slope to crypto regulation. I stand strongly against it.”
“Show me the government argument in favour of KYC and crypto regulation, and I will show you the counter argument that disproves it.”
A great opportunity which remains a missed opportunity in the cryptoverse, is that crypto projects are failing to leverage the utility that they can provide for one another. I have spoken harshly against projects which insist on using their own KYC procedures and which are not utilising specialist cryptocurrencies designed for that role:
“We have an array of already working and under development Identity Verification cryptocurrencies available to us: Civic, THEKEY, SelfKey, Worbli, NEO ID etc. We as crypto users need to put pressure on crypto companies to use these services. We need to support those who already use these services and demand that the others do the same.“
I have taken such crypto projects on in several private emails and occasional public Tweets – such as this one:
From twitter.com
There are exchanges and wallets which I refuse to use because they refuse to use other crypto projects. I know that in a way this looks like cutting off my nose to spite my face, but if we – the crypto community – don’t take a stand to support ID verification projects and stop the endless and unnecessary KYC procedures, who will?
I also know that some of my favourite exchanges require KYC – some at various levels, depending on what you want from them. Binance, KuCoin, even Nash – all exchanges which I highly recommend – have such requirements. I’m not suggesting that you avoid pro-KYC entities completely, but rather that you start moving in the right direction. For instance: Nash is more decentralised than most exchanges (an exchange is not simply “centralised” or “decentralised”: CEXs and DEXs lie at two ends of a continuum, and most exchanges lie somewhere between those two points), so I will be using it a lot after its August 23 launch and will slowly scale down on using the more centralised ones. Similarly, if given the option (in terms of trading pairs), I choose to use Binance DEX over traditional Binance. As seen in the Tweet above, when an exchange like IDEX takes such a bold move in the wrong direction, then I cut it off completely.
I also included quite a few original Satoshi Nakamoto quotes in my anti-KYC post. People need to be reminded of these regularly! People need to remember Satoshi’s vision!
Satoshi quotes:
“Participants can be anonymous.”
“…privacy can still be maintained by breaking the flow of information in another place: by keeping public keys anonymous. The public can see that someone is sending an amount to someone else, but without information linking the transaction to anyone.”
“We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust.”
Conclusion
I don’t give a damn that governments want KYC. If you are a large crypto company, and local government regulations are making it hard for you to operate – then MOVE! Don’t try to block users, leave that up to the governments who want to do the regulating. Let people discover the power of the TOR network, VPNs etc. And for crying out loud – stop demanding KYC information! This won’t end well for you or your users!
Let the governments who don’t want crypto seal their own fates. The future of global finance lies in decentralised crypto. If they don’t want to be a part of that future – so be it.
We were lucky with the latest Binance KYC leak, it could have been much worse. Consider this a small taste of what is to come if we continue down the dark path of government-enforced crypto regulation.
To the crypto service providers: I ask you again, with tears in my baby-blue eyes – Use the ID verification projects! Let me login using e.g. Civic. Let me control which information I share with each company. Let me not spread 100 different photos of myself and my identification documents all around the internet!
Simple systems engineering principles are at play here people: you are introducing multiple points of failure – AND THEY ARE FAILING!
Let the KYC we know today die the death that it deserves. It does not matter about government concerns re money laundering, purchases of illegal goods etc. When criminals are selling drugs or guns on your streets, taking away money is not the answer! Yes, without money you can’t buy drugs and guns, but you also can’t buy food, clothing, fuel… The government arguments that crypto transactions are largely in criminal hands are fallacious. FAR more drugs are sold using fiat. FAR more money is laundered using fiat! FORGET ABOUT WHAT GOVERNMENT WANTS! What’s the worst that could happen? They ban crypto? Remind me again how well the drug bans are working after all these years…
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
In Elliott Wave terms, Huobi Token began a wave one advance in November 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in April this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Huobi Token should be heading next towards the April peak in the red wave three.
Click the tab below to listen to the 48th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Two Minute Crypto – Key Concepts 8 – Decentralization
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This instalment of the Key Concepts series focuses on explaining crypto decentralization and the challenge of achieving it. While decentralization can be a very nuanced reality across a wide range of important metrics this discussion will dwell on a high-level explanation of the term as generally used in the crypto space. It is certainly one of the key components to understanding the appeal and potential of blockchain.
When a cryptocurrency is described as decentralized the core of that claim is that it has no single point of failure and no over-arching authority. There is no controlling entity, no headquarters, no management team, no single set of servers or data repository and no- permission is required in order to use that crypto in any way an individual or business might choose. It is live in the wild and free – at once accessible and unassailable. You cannot shut down a distributed network precisely because it is very widely dispersed and easily propagated.
On paper, a decentralized network has obvious appeal. It is robust and inherently democratizing. Each participant in a decentralized network has the same set of ‘rights’ as every other user of that system and access to the network is permissionless -if you want to use it you can – there is no-one to ask and critically no individual with the power to deny you.
However, key to understanding decentralization in terms of crypto is an awareness of how incredibly difficult it is to achieve. Talk is cheap – the moniker of decentralized on the vast majority of blockchain projects is just a title – smoke and mirrors intended to gloss over a centralized reality.
At best, most crypto projects exhibit only one or two qualities of decentralization – they may be open-sourced or the network may be secured by thousands of distributed nodes. However, the vast majority of these projects are subject to points of failure. For example, there is a founder or founders who control development, or there is a small team of active developers who in reality drive the project without whom it would die. Perhaps the supply is controlled by a small number of individuals who effectively own the system or network validators are centrally appointed. To date, in reality, only a veneer of decentralization is achieved by the vast majority of projects.
The primary example of a decentralized crypto in practice is, of course, Bitcoin. There is no founder to target, no company, no centralized record keepers, permission to use is not required, supply is fixed and though development can and does take place it requires the acceptance of a majority of the distributed nodes for these proposals to actually be enacted on the mainchain.
However, even Bitcoin is an imperfect version of a decentralized network. Miners validate the currencies transactions; these miners tend to congregate into mining pools (groups) for greater efficiency and the majority of these pools are located in China. This is a clear centralization of a key component of the network creating a pinch point for Bitcoin should China enforce a ban or move to shut-down these mining pools. Would this kill BTC, absolutely not but it would adversely affect it in the short-term as the network moved to rebalance its mining system.
To recap decentralization offers many advantages but attaining such a state is incredibly challenging and to date very rarely achieved.
LINK seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the structure of candles has found support within an important area of demand marked on the chart with a blue rectangle located within the price range of 1.9628 – 2.0597, the smaller figure shows a trend reversal setup, however, the price has found resistance in the blue horizontal located at 2.4909 so we could see an ABC structure approaching the support located at 2.1250, so we can see a change in trend, the price has to mark an HH above the blue horizontal mentioned above.
LINK seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see that the price falling below the blue horizontal has made a pullback confirmation bearish which should cause the price to fall towards the area of demand indicated within the chart with a blue rectangle located within the price range of 2.1250 – 2.2027, the price should find strong demand in that zone so that we can see an upward momentum to position the price above 2.4909 and we can see a change of trend.
In conclusion, the price should retreat into the price range of 2.1250 – 2.2027 creating an ABC structure which would be the beginning of a game of (EW) of the next impulse of the major figure, if the price falls below that zone of demand we should wait for the reaction of the price in the major rectangle seen in the graph of 1D, if the price falls below that zone, the downward probailities will be greater, it is advisable to wait for confirmation in any of the areas indicated in the graphs above inside the rectangles and be very attentive to the movement of the next candles in 4H and closing the daily candle.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
In Elliott Wave terms, Promotion Coin began a wave one advance on May 23. The red wave one finished on July 9, and the red wave two correction ended on July 23. The red wave three advance finished on August 2, and the red wave four correction ended on August 6. If this wave count is correct, Promotion Coin should be heading next towards the August 2 peak in the red wave five.
In Elliott Wave terms, Prometeus began a wave one advance on July 16. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 22, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 29. If this wave count is correct, Prometeus should be heading next towards the July 22 peak in the red wave three.
Prometeus is a Blockchain & AI enhanced ecosystem for the people owned data markets. BlockchainBrad interviewed one of the team members back in June this year.
Crypto is an exciting market and offers a host of opportunities to the ‘engaged’ investor. However, the space does exhibit its own peculiarities, some of which complicate the process of successfully investing in the asset class.
There are over-arching investment rules and there are those that apply more specifically to crypto. Research is an example of a shared investment process across all assets classes. However, there is one area where blockchain diverges somewhat from other assets – timelines.
Crypto is replete with glossy websites sporting detailed timelines, with a neat line of progress highlighting all that we have to look forward to in the coming quarters and years.
Rule of thumb – Crypto Project Timelines are Wildly Optimistic
They are guidelines only. All those shiny development points/partnerships/roll-outs etc. are conceptual in nature and the only thing you can take for granted is that as a rule: they will be missed, over-promised and under-delivered. Generally, there’s absolutely no point asking the Telegram admins about roadmap deadlines because they know about as much as you do.
Crypto projects are essentially software start-ups. As such, they face a number of specific challenges.
a) Software development – the broad strokes of a blockchain may indeed flow quickly but as with most things – the devil is in the details. As blockchain involves the storing and transacting of value such details inevitably slow down development even if the team has the necessary talent to deliver on their promises.
The last leg of software development is the most demanding as any bug can undo the whole network. This partially explains why most projects seem close to hitting roadmap release but just don’t quite get there …again and again and again.
The more decentralized the chain the longer any developments are likely to take. This complicates investor project assessment as centralized coins can seem to be pulling ahead of their more distributed brethren when, in fact, it is only their limitations that allow the appearance of progress.
b) Partnerships – a blockchain in a vacuum is hardly a revenue generator – partnerships and many of them are required in order to generate network effects and revenue streams. Such deals almost always take longer than expected. Remember an announcement of a partnership does not a partnership make -it is only the first step in a long and often winding road.
c) Regulatory hurdles – blockchains cross borders and often have global reach with that come a host of regulatory issues that need to be addressed. Given the lack of clarity re blockchain regulations in most jurisdictions – substantial delays are all but inevitable.
Realistic Adjusted Timeline for Blockchain Roadmaps
I use the following sliding scale when assessing project promises and roadmaps:
Decentralized projects such as BTC and ETH add 2 to 3 years to any proposed change or improvement.
Semi-decentralized projects such as EOS add 1 year to any ‘official’ roll-out.
Centralized projects such as Ripple add 6 months to any timeline.
Of course, even these adjusted timelines will often end up being entirely too optimistic but it should help make more ‘realistic’ investment decisions.
Examples of how an adjusted time preference might help you as an investor:
Buying Ethereum because it is set to scale in 6 months seems a lot less attractive if you change that to 2 to 3 years. ETH is substantially decentralized – changes cannot be pushed through – delay, debate, and slow implementation are to be expected and planned for. In practical terms, this has led me to hold off on accumulating ETH (aside from small-dollar cost average purchases) until it retraces substantially – a retracement which seems likely as investors lose patience with the slow pace of development.
Assessing the value proposition of Bitcoin with the underlying understanding of its inherently slow development precisely because it is actually decentralized takes the gloss off a lot of centralized, corporate-driven pseudo-cryptos like XRP. The realization that BTC changes very slowly and is designed to do so makes it a lot easier to hold over the long-term as your expectations for change now more closely match the asset itself. BTC has done a much better job of communicating its decentralized nature in comparison to ETH – likely leading to far less disillusionment with its inherently slow pace of development.
Remember this?
Realizing the even a 4 billion dollar war-chest and a team of over 100 developers doesn’t result in met deadlines could have saved you a lot of money as was the case with EOS. After months of hype on June 1st, they announced Voice – which it soon emerged couldn’t be deployed until the rollout of a network upgrade – that upgrade being scheduled for the end of September (at the earliest).
Effectively, they held an event the central showcase of which won’t go live until the end of the year – if everything goes to plan. This information was slow in coming resulting in a long slow bleed-out of EOS value.
In summary, roadmaps and project promises are guidelines – almost always too optimistic in terms of both delivery and effect – invest with these dual realities in mind.
… BITCOIN is now testing the Upper Resistance line within the Bullish Flag.
And, as I wrote in this post a couple of days ago, there are two options, both of them positive:
OPTION 1:
Correction is done and we are in wave three of the continuation of the Uptrend.
OPTION 2:
Still one retest of the lower ground of the Bullish Flag would be expected on (e) around 8250 USD in order to end the II wave in violet, then, strong rebound upwards.
24 Hours Volume seems to support the breakage of the upper resistance and also the RSI on the Daily still show a healthy status since it is moving within the limits.
Trend is our friend so, wait to see next move and decide wisely.
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
