Anyone paying attention to crypto knows that BTC has been soaring against alt coins for most of the year. Many alts are near their yearly or all time lows versus BTC.
So when is the right time to get into alts?
LTC vs. BTC analysis
Looking at the daily chart of LTC vs BTC you can see price is currently testing the most recent bottom. Obviously if price holds here then we have a double bottom in that we may be able to trad off of. However, the ultimate lows are still a but further away at .007.
From a risk-reward perspective the trade really isn’t all that bad right here considering price was at .017 just a couple months ago.
Even if price went to the lows to stop you out, it would be only a .0015 loss compared to the possible upside of .009
That’s a 6 to 1 risk-reward ratio!!!
If you have ever read the book Money: Master the Game from Tony Robbins there was one of many themes found when he interviewed top money managers.
They looked for investments that offered 5 to 1 risk-reward scenarios and mainly stuck to that rule.
As for LTC against BTC it could certainly continue lower, especially considering BTC has its halving next year and LTC just completed its.
I’m just saying, from a pure trade perspective there is definitely solid arguments for getting long.
STEEM seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe how the price in the last weeks has been changing the momentum when approaching the second zone of demand in 1W located in the 0.2181, we can clearly see this change in the bodies of candles, we also have bullish divergence from the technical indicator RSI, we see that the relative strength has come up during this structure with double floor potential, in a short time we could see a strong upward movement, we still need to see a bull candle to confirm the intention of the bulls, but the scenario is quite good.
STEEM seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, the last two candles have found support in the same horizontal, we can see in the double floor formed by their wicks, if the current candle ends this way we could see a bullish candle that makes us a bottom tweezer in the next session, within this temporality we also have bullish divergence in relation to the technical indicator RSI, the movement of candles has drawn us a bearish inclination while the relative force has come in increase.
In conclusion, after several weeks of strong bearish movement, STEEM seems to show signs of a possible change of trend with, this change may be very strong, the target zone is the supply zone located at 0.3449, we still need to have bullish confirmation, however, the divergences present already begin to warn us of a possible reversal, I recommend to be very attentive to the closing of the candle and confirmation with the next, we could have a +50% gain once we reach the target.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
Ripple keeps scoring good points both in the media and in the fan-base with XRP, a leading cryptocurrency in the fintech payments industry.
Whether Ripple is a decentralized or centralized blockchain, who cares as long as they are adding value. Regardless, Ripple and the token, XRP will also have a fanbase that supports their mission. And it’s not just their fanbase that is supporting the token.
Back in January of 2018, Ripple partnered with MoneyGram, one of the world’s largest money transfer companies to pilot XRP in their payment flows. In July, Ripple made some noise by acquiring a stake in MoneyGram.
Well, it appears the pilot went very well because MoneyGram is going all in and recently announced that they are adopting Ripple’s xRapid payment, using XRP as the to fund transfers.
However, the announcement was nothing special as it didn’t move the needle in terms of XRP’s price and price has been sitting between daily supply and demand for quite some time.
Since mid-July, price has been coiling up and is about to break out. A break out to the downside should bring in the buyers around $0.25 and a break out to the upside will be met with sellers at $0.40.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
So far, BTC has been bullish in August of 2019 (well – actually since the final day of July).
As usual, the mass media is throwing its theories around (such as THIS one) as to why this may be. Most of them are wrong, but let them throw their theories around anyway – it keeps them busy.
Looking at the market broadly, I would suggest that investor confidence is still relatively shaky, despite good 2019 BTC gains. This is evidenced in the poor performance of altcoins, a good indicator that “Adventurous” and “Confident” are not words to be attributed to investors at this point in time. Instead, I think that BTC price has been growing on the increase in trading volume alone (i.e. increased adoption): by now you are all well aware that 2019 volume is massive – even when compared to that of the 2017 bull run. (See volume on chart below)
From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts
Exciting news! I have started working on a new cryptocurrency metric: a quantitative metric used to determine the investor confidence of the market. Honestly I haven’t checked if such a metric exists yet, perhaps I am just re-inventing the wheel. It’s not the “Bitcoin Misery Index” (I’m using a very different method to what Thomas Lee uses) – but it will give similar results. Either way I’m still busy developing it – learning (mostly by trial and error) the right formulas to use in Google Sheets to make it work. Hopefully I will have it finished soon – I’ll be sure to show you the results when (if?) I do finish!
Back to BTC:
While the ever-fickle media with its goldfish-duration memory is certainly suddenly bullish again, I caution against becoming bullish too fast. The charts below will show you why.
BTC has been in a channel for about a month. Back in this post of 16 July, I identified the top of the channel, but the bottom had yet to be formed, so I took it as a pennant instead.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/btc-11-july/
This made me bullish on BTC in the medium-term, though I soon found out that my pennant was not a pennant at all. Strangely, this has no affect on my medium-term projections for BTC.
Later on BTC dipped, thereby forming a channel, which I then indicated in my 23 July postwhere I concluded that BTC may be forming a Bull Flag.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
While BTC has not dipped all the way back down to the bottom of that flag/channel, it has also not yet broken free of it.
Here is BTC today:
As you can clearly see on the chart above, BTC is at a turning point. Either it can breakout of the channel and climb, or it can dip sharply back downwards. I will only turn bullish if BTC breaks out of the top of channel and stays out for a day or more. Obviously this is short-term bullish, in the medium and long-terms I am bullish thanks to the bull flag and to the fundamentals of BTC respectively.
Should BTC fail to breakout, then the rejection dip should look something similar to this:
The bottom of the channel also coincides nicely with an already-consolidated support/resistance level in the mid-$7000s to mid-$8000s region. This will provide strong support and should prevent BTC from breaking through the bottom of the channel if it does head back in that direction.
Having said that: take note that similar price movement patterns in 2017 did sometimes end in a flash crash, followed by an equally rapid recovery (the crash and recovery taking only 2 to 3 days in total). The chart below from “Bitcoin – possible next moves” illustrates what I am talking about. See that post for more details and further examples.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
Summary:
If BTC does breakout within the next day or two, then we may well see an new 2019 BTC high this week. The next most likely option is that it will drop down to the bottom of the channel – still remaining within the confines of the Bull Flag and buoyed by the consolidation which took place in May/June.
Percentage allocation for possible future BTC price movement:
BTC breaks out of the top of the channel: 35%
BTC heads back down to the bottom of the channel, or perhaps the 0.786 retracement level (as it did last time): 30%
BTC heads back down and breaks through the bottom of the channel: 10%
Something else (e.g. Sideways movement, movement along diagonal Fib lines): 25%
Yours in crypto Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
In Elliott Wave terms, Metahash began a wave one advance on July 17. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 21, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on August 4. If this wave count is correct, Metahash should be heading next towards the July 21 peak in the red wave three.
MetaHash is a next-generation network based on the Blockchain 4.0 technology for sharing digital assets and a platform for creating and managing decentralized apps and services in real-time. You can watch their latest presentation below.
Bitcoin has had a slow and rather quiet move higher over the past few days. That is until today where volume has picked up in the past few hours and price pushed more than 600 points.
11,600 has been a pivot point before
Looking at the chart you can see price has come up to this level in the 11,600 area. With price now getting a but extended from the 10 day moving average and volume being somewhat low for this move on a whole it would not be a surprise if the up move died in this area.
However, if that were to happen then some sideways to slightly lower consolidation would be bullish.
To be honest as long as it maintained above 10,800 while the moving average caught up I’d be happy with the price action.
Safe havens currencies retain or increase in value during risk off environments, meaning when economic turbulence is upon us. Three major safe haven currencies are the U.S. dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. In the past several months we have witnessed a divergence in the equity markets. While all major equity markets around the world are doing down, the US market is the only one holding on for dear life. So in a risk off environment commodity type currencies decline in price as a result.
On July 1st I when short two different Japanese forex pairs.
Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 0.05600 and monthly demand is at 0.04600.
Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the daily supply at 78.000.
NOW – this trade is still in play at this time.
Both trade set-ups were a Reward to Risk of 5:1. So although I was stopped out on the USD/JPY, if the CAD/JPY ends up hitting my target, my account will go up 4%.
The game of trading is a probability game, which you most trades have less than a .500 batting avg (win/loss ratio). However, as long as your avg win is greater than your avg loss, your equity curve should be positive. Let me illustrate, if my avg. win is 3X my avg. loss, all I need is a minimum win % of 25% to be profitable. And if your avg. win was 20X your avg loss, you only have to be right 5% of the time. This is why I stopped sweating my losses years ago because my losses lead to my wins. Until next time.
When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin. Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin.
When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.
Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.
Binance
EOS
Ethereum
Litecoin
Neo
Steem
Tron
Zcash
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Putting aside what BITCOIN is doing lately, it is worth to check as well what the TOTAL crypto market does.
It is a fact that BITCOIN is being feed mainly by the altcoins in the present days since doesn’t look that “fresh” FIAT is entering at the market nowadays, that’s why looking at the BITCOIN chart versus USD can be a little bit misleading since there is a lot of selling pressure for BTC by the altcoins side
However, as I wrote yesterday in this post an enormous Bullish Flag has been formed as well at the Total Cryptocurrency market.
Inside this Bull flag there is a count that will fit in and may give you some hopes regarding the end of the correction is probably done. It is a Regular Flat Correction (3-3-5)
The only “but” I see in this possibility is that, in order to be considered as a “Regular Flat correction”, “B” should be just below the start of wave “A”, and, it is but perhaps so much low…
Anyway, let’s consider this count as good, if so, then the correction should be already finished and the Total Crypto Market should has finished already the first wave upwards and working on the third and more powerful wave, something like the following:
Nevertheless, as I said yesterday with the BITCOIN chart, a Bull Flag can promote at least 5 rebounds between its confining lines:
Conversely to BITCOIN’s Volume, the TOTAL MARKET Volume has decreased from the top of the year but not so much compared with the Crypto King and what I see in the Daily RSI indicator is an excellent situation for higher highs:
So, yes, IMO we are now in an important moment according to the Total Market Chart, be ready to experiment a possible sudden Price action, mostly on BITCOIN but also in other big Altcoins afterwards.
Enjoy!
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
When Steem, Inc. laid off employees last fall, I thought it was the beginning of the end for the token Steem. With their backs against the wall, the company buckled down and got there expenses, primarily their infrastructure expenses in order.
So the turnaround story begins…hopefully with a happy ending (keep your minds out the gutter). Steemit Inc. appointed Elizabeth Powell as Managing Director of Steemit and I have been very happy about the her Team’s transparency communication within the last couple of months.
And you know what, I have to give them credit, despite some of the back lashing by remaining professionals and trying to regain the trust of the Steem community.
I do think this blockchain
has a lot of potential, but potential has a shelve life. In the business of business, it requires a
combination of a clear vision, the ability to execute the vision and a little
luck along the way. And I give them
credit for at least having a road map now.
So here we are, price is back in the weekly demand zone at $0.23. After hugging the short term up trendline for the first five months in 2019, price struggled to close above the longer term down trendline. And what I can tell you is the longer price remains in the weekly demand zone filling all the unfilled buy orders, the probability of price breaching the demand zone and going lower decreases.
This post was tough to write because I’m a long term HODLer of Steem, but I must remember that the name of this game is to low buy and sell high. But what might be undervalued or low in price, could go lower in price. This is where one might buy with conviction because they believe Steem should be much higher. If that is the case, leave your emotions out of the equation because if you decided to buy Steem at current prices, know that is could go lower? So before you pull the trigger, know why you pulled the trigger, but more importantly, have a plan behind why you pulled that trigger to buy at $0.23. The first test for all the buyers of Steem will be this major support/resistance line at $0.30
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
