Interesting article from Bloomberg showing that people/investors are willing to pay a premium when the geopolitical or monetary situation in their respective countries is worsening.
This is the ultimate sign that Bitcoin is a hedge against risks. Government & Currency Wise.
Here are some extracts of this article.
In Argentina, where the peso plunged on election uncertainty, Bitcoin was recently trading for as much as $12,000 on LocalBitcoins.com, a peer-to-peer platform, or 10% higher than on many international crypto exchanges. The token was trading at about a 4% premium in Hong Kong, where continued anti-government protests are raising fears of retaliation.
“Bitcoin is becoming the asset of last resort in areas of extreme currency devaluation and political uncertainty,” said Rayne Steinberg, chief executive officer at Los Angeles-based crypto hedge fund Arca. *
“In the last week alone, Bitcoin is up approximately 50% against the Argentine peso and trading at a significant premium on local exchanges. And they are not alone, joining the ranks of Venezuela, Hong Kong and Turkey who have also experienced similar shocks.”
The premiums would seem to support the argument that Bitcoin is a means of protecting assets from plunges in local currencies and authoritarianism. Even so, the cryptocurrency has tumbled about 8% to around $10,890 this week, increasing the risk for investors in troubled nations of moving from one volatile asset to another.
In the past month many advocates have been pointing to the increased negative correlation with U.S. equities as proof that investors were turning to Bitcoin as a haven. That narrative proved to unravel this week as the inverse relationship broke down.
And you, What would you do if you were in Argentina or Hong-Kong at this very moment?
This is a question which I am asking myself with increasing frequency, especially since the start of Q3 2019.
When I first started investing in crypto, I thought that I knew the answer: more than about 2% of your portfolio value in crypto is a bad idea.
I have been an adherent of the ” invest 1% of your net worth in crypto” principle. It makes sense: you’re putting in an affordable amount, an amount that you can lose without significantly disadvantaging your life, and an amount that is enough to significantly grow your wealth if BTC really takes off.
But now I am doubting that logic.
Reality has been hitting uncomfortably close to home this month. My portfolio value is growing, but only in my local currency.
I like a diverse portfolio, and mine is fairly diverse, but still rather traditional in construction. Over 50% of my investments are still sitting in an array of high-yield local fiat vehicles. 20 years ago this would have been a recipe for success – it’s most certainly how I was taught and what I was always advised to do. In fact, it’s still what financial advisers would recommend. The last time I consulted and invested through a finance professional was less than a year ago, and that’s still very much the tune that he was singing.
Perhaps because I am from Generation X it’s hard for me to think outside those terms. To me a cushion of growing fiat money still represents “safety”. I imagine that it’s possibly easier for younger people to think outside the traditional box in this regard, though the mainstream advice which they would be getting is probably much the same as what I get.
My crypto holdings have gained value this year (despite the bad altcoin market), my shares (which I streamlined mainly towards precious metals over the course of the last year) have done excellently and my physical precious metals holdings are finally waking up and making me money. Thanks to those, and some growth of my fiat, I have seen rapid growth of my wealth – but mainly in local terms. The sad truth is that with so much value in fiat, I am struggling to gain value in USD at all. As fast as I gain value in crypto and metals, my fiat depreciates against the dollar, and because I have most of my wealth in fiat, even a small depreciation costs me a lot.
I’ve grown my wealth by 20% in the last 6 months – in local currency, but only by 10% in USD. I know that sounds good (hell, most pro investors would kill for that), but I’m not happy with it, and here’s why:
Sitting with so much fiat I am very exposed to market fluctuations based on the political and economic situation of my home country and of the world in general. Two weeks ago my 10% USD gain was a 15% gain. I lost about 5% of my entire portfolio value (in USD) within two weeks – DESPITE climbs in crypto and precious metals. That’s a scary reminder of just how fast my portfolio can devalue. It also shows how the more volatile assets like crypto are not alone in their power to rapidly eat into the value of your portfolio when they turn bearish.
There is another consideration: The general trend of precious metals prices is an upwards one: they increase in value against USD. The general trend of my local currency is the exact opposite. Normally this doesn’t matter too much, as the interest I can gain on fiat holdings negates their devaluation and still makes me a small profit, but this is no longer the case.
At this stage you may wonder: “why not just transfer your fiat holdings into USD then?” Well, it’s inconvenient and a little costly to do so. I still need fiat for my daily transactions, so I still need a local fiat buffer. But the real reason is that USD doesn’t look healthy in the long-term either.
As many of us have been predicting for some time now, the economic house of cards that the world is built upon has become exceptionally fragile. It’s precariously balanced on a base made up of a trade war, a weakening and splitting European economic bloc, negative interest rates, quantitative easing and lending rate cuts, spiralling national debt which dwarfs GDP, and derivatives, derivatives and more derivatives. Options, futures, funds, shorts – everything BUT the underlying assets. The financial world is dealing in so many assets with zero inherent value, that the underlying assets themselves no longer even feature! And they have the gall to criticise crypto for having “no inherent value”… (which I can prove is false)
The collapse of fiat structures is looking uncomfortable close, closer and possibly more severe than I even had imagined. At this stage I doubt that this will be the end of fiat as we know it. Unfortunately, this is all happening a little too early for crypto to just step in and pick up the slack, crypto adoption has not yet reached that level of mainstream use and trust. This means that fiat will rise again and that it will probably only be after the following big crash that crypto picks up the slack.
However…
It’s not to say that that following big crash won’t happen soon after the one which is about to happen. It’s hardly been a decade since the last semi-decent sized market crash. With another one already on the cards, it is clear that the entire shaky system is just rebuilding itself on its former ruins each time – thereby creating an increasingly shaky base – and consequently guaranteeing that each successive crash will not be too far off. In addition to this, each crash of fiat, its related markets and its plethora of derivative assets is another boost for cryptocurrencies.
Even mainstream investors can now see that Bitcoin is fast becoming a replacement for Gold, or at least an alternative to it. This is not to say that Bitcoin won’t dip in price when markets crash, but like most BTC dips, that will be a temporary one – a desperate rush out of stored value in order to try to prop up the failing fiat-based assets. It’s ludicrously stupid and doomed to fail, but it happens; just take a look at what happened to the prices of precious metals in 2008: Gold lost 30% of its value, Silver lost 60%, Platinum lost 67%. Admittedly most bounced back within a year – faster and harder than the stock markets did.
Don’t get me wrong, I still support investing in Gold (and other precious metals). My macroeconomic opinion of the 2008 crash was that it was more a correction than a crash. The problem with such a correction is that it delays the inevitable: the BIG crash will still happen – only now it’s going to be even more severe when it does. As I said earlier, I don’t know if what we’re seeing now is the start of such a crash, or perhaps just another mini-crash/correction.
Either way, I’m scared to still have so much money sitting in fiat. It’s only a matter of time before the American markets give that one big sneeze – the one from which all other markets will catch a cold – or perhaps a disease far more serious. Looking at my portfolio now, I can’t help but think that the assets which are generally seen as “risky” today, are probably more “safe”. For crypto this is still tricky to say: as much as I love crypto, I’m hesitant to throw more than the recommended 1% into it, 2% maximum. Thanks to the growth of crypto, I’m already way past that mark, I’m now well into the 20% territory. Is that too much, or is it not enough?
Precious metals are a little easier, especially Gold. The chance of Gold losing its millennia old store-of-value status is practically zero. For this reason I will probably increase my holdings in precious metals and decrease those in fiat. Simultaneously I will look to increase my crypto holdings by a similar amount. Yes, crypto remains risky, but is it really riskier than fiat?
In a world of inflationary assets, only those with finite supply can be considered consistent long-term stores of value. I’m not a trader, so I’m not after short-term gains or volatile markets, I’m after long-term growth. For now it looks as if precious metals and crypto offer me the best chances of that; not only good returns, but also relative safety compared to fiat – as unconventional as that may sound and as contrary as it may be to my education in such matters.
At this stage it’s worth asking the question: “What about property?” I think that’s a valid question, but I don’t believe that it is the answer to my dilemma. In times of plenty (as we have enjoyed for the last decade), property is one of the things which balloons in value. I watched the price of my own home race upwards pre-2008, then I watched the market pop and the value of my house stagnated for about a decade. Only in the last two or three years has it suddenly climbed again. Remember that the 2008 crash is largely blamed on factors including the unsustainable property price bubble. Already I can see that property prices are suffering in my area. Houses which are for sale just don’t sell, sellers are slashing prices by large two-digit percentages. Rental properties stand open as people rather downgrade their lifestyles than pay such exorbitant prices. The housing market is in trouble – itself an indication that the next crash is already actually underway.
Property IS limited. There will always be demand for it, thanks to a growing human population. BUT it is overvalued, and a price crash will probably be rather severe. It takes a long time for property prices to recover from a crash – people don’t emerge from a depression with a wad of cash to splurge on an expensive house. I would rather not be in property during such an event. For the nimble trader with cash at hand, a few great property deals should become available at the worst point of the crash – but that’s beyond the scope of this post.
So what now?
Truth be told, I was on the verge of shifting money out of fiat two weeks ago. Unfortunately for me, I was a few days too late. I watched helplessly as Bitcoin roared back into quintiple digits territory, Gold shot to new 6-year highs and my local currency dropped like a stone – all simultaneously of course.
This leaves me in the old catch-22 situation: buy high or wait for a dip that may never come?
To make things even worse, Bitcoin is riding a very non-committal path along the top of my diagonal Fib retracement levels. It’s giving no clear indication of whether it will drop again (as I hope it will), or it it will shoot off to a new 2019 high.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Looking carefully at the market, I would say that exceptionally poor altcoin sentiment may well indicate that crypto sentiment as a whole is poor and that BTC should drop lower. Conversely, the global fiat fears could kick BTC higher and ignite a bull run at any time. I’m leaning slightly towards there being another dip. The little dashed line you see on the chart is an alert which I have set at $9350, my current buy price (subject to change). Whether we will reach that mark or not, I do not know. Perhaps BTC will reach it and drop far lower – in which case I will probably buy like a maniac. For now I consider my previous BTC post to still be valid – so I still think that I can get my BTC dip.
Once I do buy, whether low or high, I will probably convert a fair amount of my BTC into altcoins (diversified altcoins). I’m a firm believer in buying when there is blood in the streets. As a value investor, altcoins look like a great buying opportunity to me now, possibly the greatest buying opportunity I’ve ever seen. To hedge this bet I will probably leave about 50% of what I buy in BTC. BTC may not grow like the alts when things are going well, but it is the most secure and durable of the cryptocurrencies, and it will weather any further price drops better than what the altcoins will. With BTC dominance at over 68%, I can’t see altcoins getting left behind for much longer- hence I am keen to get money into them NOW! This CoinGecko “Top 100 coins” chart illustrates the extent of BTC dominance:
From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts
Where I come from we call that “unsustainable”. Sorry BTC maximalists – your coin is great – but so are many altcoins.
Similarly, when it comes to buying metals, I may look at alternatives to Gold. Like with BTC, I will put more into Gold than the other metals, but I almost certainly buy more of the higher ROI potential Silver and/or Platinum. Much of that also depends on how close to spot price I can get on each asset, and also on some local laws and regulations which affect precious metals trading, especially the taxation thereon.
Conclusion
As you can see, this most was mainly just me thinking out loud. I apologise if there is no specific actionable information and if it is more opinion than fact or hard analysis. Also, much of it is specific to my situation. However, I believe that parts of this post will pertain to most if not all of you, and that you should be asking yourselves similar questions and have similar concerns. I have no doubt that we shall still see large financial changes, call them “upsets” within our lifetimes. We will probably see a few such events. I believe that the scarce resources such as Bitcoin, Gold and property are good assets to hold for the long-term, depending greatly on local conditions and on when you buy them. It is now my immediate goal to increase my scarce asset holdings and decrease my fiat holdings as soon as I can. If a dip does not come soon, then I will be forced to start DCAing into such assets at higher prices.
The world has changed and fiat is no longer the safe asset it once was. The rate of this change is surprising even to me – a staunch anti-fiat campaigner. I am acting accordingly. I suggest you seek qualified advice in doing something along similar lines.
Yours in anything that isn’t fiat-based Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Bitcoin Perfect Storm?! Last Time PUMPED 237%!!! What’s REALLY Driving $BTC Price?!
BREAKING: Global BITCOIN Hysteria!!! $15k TARGET!? S. Korea & USA BULLISH AF!
JP Morgan – Dollar Doomed! Time to Buy Bitcoin! + SEC SHOCK Announcement!
Bitcoin Setting Up For A MASSIVE BULL RUN That Will Make 2017 Look Like A MoleHill
This Will Change Your Mind On Bitcoin. MASSIVE Amounts of Money Pouring In!
The Most Scary and Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now
Enjoy that? Me neither – this unfortunately is ‘the standard’ for current crypto news feeds particularly anything on YouTube. All the above titles date from last week and are all from sources I generally respect and find utility from (each has tens of thousands of subscribers). Lower down the crypto foodchain -hyperbole, fantasy, and flat-out lies dominate.
I have yet to see a piece of writing, political or non-political, that does not have a slant. All writing slants the way a writer leans, and no man is born perpendicular. ― E.B. White
A perspective is inevitable but ‘OMG the End of Banking!’ is more demagoguery than argument.
What’s in a Title?
Well, it matters because step by step such hyperbolic titling wears down your natural skepticim feeding a bias…that little by little brings you into the realm of the unreal fantasist’ – CRYPTO SET TO CONQUER THE WORLD! Who knows perhaps it will but we’re looking at a process of decades, not months or years.
The catch-22 is that only a minority of content creators rise above this misleading nonsense. In the pursuit of viewers/readers/followers measured engagement is swapped for CAPS !!!! HUGE / AMAZING adjectives and a couple of .
This is low low brow stuff akin to girly mag newspapers such as The Sun. Do you trust the Sun?
It’s no doubt partly a symptom of the youthful/wild-west quality of the crypto landscape. Nonetheless, for new investors it is a minefield of irrational exuberance backed-up only by the written/spoken word – there’s very little behind most of this nonsense. A kernel of truth – sure but enough to be basing investment decisions on…..?
The more engaged you are with crypto the greater the struggle to remain grounded and focused on market principles and project fundamentals. Ironically most of the people responsible for this gutter level material loudly denounce the establishment, mainstream media, politicians and so on for ‘misleading’ the common man…
If these folks are willing to mislead you in the title -why trust anything they write/record/post at all?
Hopefully, as the space matures so too will the news feeds but I’m not holding my breath!
I haven’t traded much in the last month or two. With the altcoin market still dead, one has to move very cautiously: being careful not to sell low and being equally careful not to buy rubbish.
Here’s what I’ve been selling and buying over the last three weeks or so:
Shopping trip 1:
The second part of my OByte airdrop came through about a month ago. Byteball (as it was then known) was airdropped to STEEM holders a little over a year ago, and I’ve been holding onto mine ever since, waiting for the second part of the airdrop to unlock. Obviously this was not a large amount (I didn’t have much STEEM a year ago), but every little bit counts, especially in an altcoin market as undervalued as this one is.
I’ve been watching OByte for as long as I have been holding it, and so far I have just failed to see a good use case for it. It doesn’t have the market penetration of similar coins, and it lacks the product differentiation required to give it unique desirability. I’m using the altcoin winter to weed out my weaker projects, and OByte is one of those which I decided to dump.
I headed over to Bittrex to sell it. Sadly I must say that Bittrex really doesn’t seem to be keeping up with the newer exchanges, it’s still a bit of a pain to use. Because my OByte was not worth much, and I didn’t feel like withdrawing BTC that would have cost me half it’s value in transaction fees, I decided to buy the one coin which I still leave on Bittrex: I bought Blocknet
Blocknet is not a name you hear every day. It’s basically a multi-chain, second-layer, blockchain interoperability system. It’s not a sure thing, but I have high hopes for it and see no reason why it should not succeed. To put it another way: I give it far greater odds of success than Cardano! Take a look at BLOCK if you are unfamiliar with it, they have some interesting things going on, including their own DEX (called “Block DX”). https://blocknet.co
Having nothing more to do on Bittrex, I headed over to KuCoin and sold off some of my TenX (PAY). While I still believe in TenX, I have not been happy with all of their recent decisions. A decision with regard to the distribution of tokens was badly received by the community, and indicative of poor management. That kind of thing sets off warning bells, the last thing I want is to sit on another Electroneum-like management disaster. So I dumped about 40% of my TenX and bought KuCoin Shares (KCS) with it. KuCoin shares are always a good investment – at least they have been for the last two years that they have existed.
Shopping trip 2:
Just before the month drew to a close, KuCoin dropped another surprise on us: the KuCoin Shares Lockup program. Staking rewards offered by this three month staking opportunity were ridiculously good, and I decided to participate. KuCoin Shares are not particularly cheap, but they are cheap for what they are. In an attempt to maximise returns on this opportunity, I traded my small emergency Ethereum fund (stored on KuCoin for just such cases) and bought KCS with it. In addition to that, I also sold off a substantial amount of my STEEM that has been powering down for the last few weeks – unfortunately at a very bad price. With altcoins universally low, it’s become a case of “which coins have the best potential for recovery?” I generally hedge my bets, but a STEEM to KCS swap was a no-brainer in this case.
I was fortunate enough to stake my KCS on Day 1 of the lockup at the maximum ROI percentage – I calculate that I should make a profit of over 10% (in KCS) in three months, which is fantastic! The KCS price climbed during the Lockup program, and for the most part it’s held onto its gains – hardly surprising when KuCoin continues to innovate and offer excellent service. See if you can spot the 24 hours before the staking contract first opened on the chart below…
From https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/kucoin-shares
Shopping trip 3:
My most recent shopping trip took place this weekend. ZCash (ZEC) has been under my watchful eye for the last few weeks. I have been growing increasingly uneasy towards it and last week I finally reached the end of my tether and decided to dump it. It’s a risky move: ZEC is far from bad, but I am unhappy with the direction that the management team has moved in. My decision was to get out before the coin suddenly loses most of its supporters – something which I consider to be a very real possibility. I don’t like the funding issues that ZCash is having – that’s bad financial planning. I don’t like the founder rewards disagreements – those are not in the best interests of the community, and have already caused the YCash fork to take place. The final straw for me was hearing that they wanted to basically rewrite the code for ZCash – which would open it up to a whole new set of bugs (remember: this is a privacy coin we’re talking about). Reading the latest posts by the ZCash Foundation and Electric Coin Company (the company which is confusingly ZCash – yet also isn’t – much like the Ripple/XRP obfuscation) did nothing to allay my fears, in fact it made them worse.
I held ZCash for a long time, so this was not a decision taken lightly (especially considering how much the price has dropped since I got it!). I wanted to put the newly freed up ZCash funds into the best possible coins. I sold my ZEC on Binance, so to keep things simple, I decided that I would only buy cryptos from Binance with those funds. I did entertain the possibility of leaving it in BTC, but because BTC dominance is so high right now, I consider any attempt to sell altcoins into BTC as a bad trade and a case of FUD selling. I opted to buy three altcoins instead.
It should be mentioned that I came very close to buying Holo (HOT) again. The only reason I didn’t buy it is that I have a fairly large amount of Holo already when compared to my other alts (not that any of my altcoin holdings can really be called “large” these days!). Civic (CVC) has been on my “want” list for several months now. With Civic at ATL prices, both in BTC and USD, it looks like an excellent buy opportunity. Combined with the fact that it still looks like a seriously good project and that it’s slowly getting some attention, I more than doubled my Civic stack for only a few dollars. I know that someday I will look back on these purchases and laugh. What remains to be seen is if the laughter will be at the massive profits I have made from them, or from the sheer foolishness of buying altcoins in a market that looks so disinterested in them!
Next on the list was Ontology (ONT). I’m still kicking myself for selling the first ONT that was airdropped to me for holding NEO. I often see ONT as a backup to NEO: should NEO for some inane reason fail to takeoff, then surely ONT will. For now my money is still on NEO (literally), but I think that ONT (which is basically just NEO dressed up in a suit and tie) is a very valuable addition to any crypto portfolio.
The last coin in my shopping cart is Waltonchain (WTC). I’m a VeChain supporter at heart, but Walton has always been worthy competition for them, and honestly there’s not much difference between the two. Lately it seems as if my #2 horse in the race has been outperforming my #1. Keeping my ear to the ground, it sounds as if Walton has been making the good deals lately – deals which should increase its adoption. “Adoption” is the name of the game in the altcoin world. With that in mind, I put the last of my old ZEC funds into WTC.
Conclusion
That’s the end of another month of shopping. While the markets may seem dead, I think this is a great time to accumulate all the good altcoins which are being overlooked by the “new money’ in crypto. The more fickle “old money” has turned BTC maximalist for now, but will surely swing the other way again once the altcoin money starts to flow. FOMO will pull them back over to the alts – where some of us have been waiting all along…
These are not the usual coins that I buy – with the obvious exception of KuCoin Shares. I’m taking this opportunity to increase my stake in some coins I don’t hold enough of, and also taking this opportunity to get rid of my non-performers. I’m also seriously considering putting more fiat in – even though I have none to spare – for reasons which I may elaborate on in my next post.
Opportunities surround us in crypto right now, fantastic opportunities. The trick is to tell the good from the bad. Remember that risk mitigation lies in diversification. Good luck out there.
Yours in crypto Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin. Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin.
When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.
Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.
Binance
EOS
Ethereum
Litecoin
Neo
Steem
Tron
Zcash
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Rocket League, a highly successful live-service video game (PC/console) debuted in 2015 is still very popular, ranking in the top 10 most played games on gaming distribution platform Steam.
Its developer, Psyonix, was recently acquired by Epic Gamesand is now dropping the lootbox-style crate system it used to generate revenues from its player base.
Psyonix has already shifted the main focus of its monetisation strategy over to premium progression passes (so-called Battle Passes), which have been very lucrative for Epic Games.
Analysis and Comments
Lootboxes and micro transactions have long been popular monetisation techniques in mobile games, but it is only more recently that the big-budget games from AAA studios have been introducing them as well.
The main reason we are highlighting this story is because it showcases the subsequent shift away from monetisation techniques based on randomized item rewards (in premium games), as they have received a lot of attention and criticism in the near past – and come with a looming regularity overhang.
Battle Passes, on the other hand, are a tried and proven method to generate revenue from a game’s player base (and importantly not hated by gamers, unlike the “surprise mechanics” of lootboxes).
There are many successful examples of companies using this technique (including Epic Games & Riot), with perhaps one of the best ones being Valve’s annual Battle Pass sale for the esports World Championship of its game Dota 2: the game’s prize pool is almost entirely crowdfunded via the Battle Passes, and while only 25% of the in-game sales actually go towards the prize pool, the total prize pool currently amounts to more than US$32m, with 18 days left until the crowdfunding ends.
Notably, the Battle Pass-funded prize pool has consistently broken its own recordevery year, with this year’sofficially being the largest single-event prize pool in esports history.
Tencent’s Share price (majority shareholder of EPIC Games)
Well it is nice to see a little green out of the alts the past 48 hours, but volume is lacking so it may just be sellers tacking a break as opposed to buyers coming in.
Taking a look at some bigger alts…
Looking at LTC you see volume is lighter than usual and a little bounce should not be of surprise as price had sold off 5 straight days.
I do like that this bounce we create a higher low from that bottom around 80. Either way, nothing too exciting going on.
Ethereum range bound
Ethereum has been bouncing around between 200 and 230 roughly for a little while now. An uptick after touching 200 yesterday is also not much of a surprise, volume is also very light on this up day.
Action is muted
At this point I’m waiting for the alts to do something, the market is rather quiet otherwise.
Tight, tight, tight on the Bitcoin chart (even with yesterday’s drop) -shouldn’t be long before a significant resolution one way or the other. As to the Alts – they’ve been savaged with no sign of recovery on the horizon.
Global markets are looking very shaky with gold, silver, and Bitcoin the beneficiaries. The dollar seems set to run up against most currencies particularly those of developing nations. China essentially devalued the Yuan this week – letting the sub 7 Yuan peg against the dollar finally break. This week once again highlights some of the red-lights flashing throughout the global economy. Could the party go on – could lower interest rates and further money printing – first rescue – then pump global markets -absolutely they could but I’m not betting on it.
Picks of the Week
A chart-storm highlighting the looming dollar run-up against its competitors is fascinating. In a similar vein, the interview with Raoul Pal examining systemic global market risk factors is compelling.
A simple explanation of blockchain – handy to have on hand for the newly curious: https://medium.com/@sidharth_m/beginners-guide-to-blockchain-explaining-it-to-a-5-years-old-772caac6ae97
There’s a lot of smoke around the state of the Chinese economy – the sky isn’t falling but this is perhaps part of the appeal of crypto for Chinese investors? (recommended):
Website / Utility
Starting Sept 9th – a free university-level course on blockchain – 11 units – live sessions – many by Anton Antonopoulos (Note: you have to supply your contact details -including phone number):
That one flew by. Learned a lot – worried a little -such is crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
In Elliott Wave terms, Robotina began a wave one advance in July 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in March this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Robotina should be heading next towards the March peak in the red wave three.
FTM seen from the 1D temporary we can see how the candlestick structure looks bearish, the previous candlestick closing below the ITZ point (important trading area) has caused bears to gain ground and we see it reflected in the current candlestick with its bearish momentum, the 1D demand zone located at 0.01802 does not seem to support the price for long, does not seem a very strong support, the major setup that shows FTM is a descending wedge so we should expect the price to form a new LL in or near the diagonal support of the figure, in the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that should follow the price in its path.
FTM seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of the candles, as we mentioned earlier, the price has been pushed violently down after the support drawn on the chart was broken by a horizontal blue color located at 0.02027, from here we should continue to see the price fall until we find the support of the larger figure, I have drawn the diagonal fall as resistance of the downward wedge, we see in the chart in blue.
In conclusion, when the price draws us a C point in the price range of 0.13 – 0.12 will be our best entry opportunity, the price should find strong demand that drives the price towards our target located in the price range of 0.02426 – 0.02554, we can make very good gains with this trade, however, I recommend as always to be attentive to the movement of candles in 1D and wait for the price to reach us.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
