The Sunday Crypto Recap- Down the Rabbit Hole 50

Market indecision has been the hallmark of this week’s crypto volatility. Some Alts such as Link made significant moves but the sustainability of these price gains is entirely unproven. As usual, lots more than price discovery going on in this space.The Bitwise ETF was shot down as expected though the firmness of the rejection was perhaps a surprise. The IRS issued draconian tax guidance for US citizens and Bakkt trade volume picked up just a little bit.

Given that this is the 50th edition of this series it’s worth re-stating the goal it strives to achieve:

The purpose of this weekly series is to recap some of the interesting ideas and concepts across a wide range of disciplines which each and every week in crypto seems to throw up. This ‘learners paradise’ is a great space to explore but also asks a lot of those who delve into it.

Got a grasp on basic programming logic, how about Austrian economics, or quantum computing or precisely how hashing algorithms underpin blockchains? Taking a moment to reflect or recap on the recent concepts and ideas crossing the crypto landscape can be very beneficial whether you are a hardcore crypto enthusiast or just exploring a casual interest in the space.

It’s important to note that not every idea here reflects my own bias or opinion. If it’s here, it’s because it made me think.


Picks of the Week

This article on Bitcoin’s security. A forecast into 2020 and this irreverent discussion of BTC.


Twitter

As you can see there really isn’t any basis to pursue crypto:
https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1180256599203614722

Bitwise ETF doomed from the start?:
https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1182093405297549312

Stacking sats seems to work:
https://twitter.com/matt_odell/status/1182121647928684545

Here’s what interest on 10 BTC amounts to (risk, risk, risk):
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1136264342612140033

Binance needs to thread softly in China:
https://twitter.com/truthurtm/status/1182304264036601856

Nick Szabo on money/ evolution of the dollar (recommended);
https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1147723003716751360

EOS needs a well-tested backup plan:
https://twitter.com/ryaneos42/status/1181453142673592321

Sometimes, you just have to enjoy the pain:
https://twitter.com/MoonOverlord/status/1181201267214950402

Tether skepticism is probably a reasonable position:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1181571057662271488


Articles

An examination of Bitcoin security with particular reference to block subsidies – follow link to download full pdf. (highly recommended):
https://uncommoncore.co/research-paper-a-model-for-bitcoins-security-and-the-declining-block-subsidy/

Bitcoin as freedom:
https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoin-equals-freedom/

Crypto may benefit from these recent government actions:
https://beincrypto.com/4-recent-government-actions-which-are-bullish-for-bitcoin/

From crypto skeptic to convert:
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/confessions-of-a-reformed-crypto-doubter-20191006-p52y43

More on Mixicles from Chainlink (may turn out o be important):
https://blog.chain.link/breaking-down-mixicles-and-its-potential-to-unlock-enterprise-demand-for-defi-applications-on-public-blockchains/

Features of EOSIO 2:
https://eos.io/news/introducing-eosio-2/

Central bank ‘stimulus’ programmes have real consequences for average people (recommended):
https://mises.org/wire/central-bank-stimulus-really-huge-redistribution-scheme

Even mainstream media is beginning to highlight te high-risk nature of current financial policies:
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bankers-have-just-signed-off-on-policies-that-could-increase-risk-of-another-gfc-20191008-p52yl1.html


Podcast

Rough around the edges – lots of profanity and slow to start (skip to 11:35) but full of thought-provoking perspectives on Bitcoin (highly recommended):


https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/aleks-svetski-founder-amber-why-bitcoin-price-is-wrong/id1434060078?i=1000452270641


YouTube

Looking into 2020 (highly recommended):


Decoding crypto transactions (highly recommended for folks new to crypto):


Hashing Algorithms and security simply explained dates from 2013 and just as relevant now:


Deep dive into Quant – thorough interview:


Clear, level-headed explanation of negative interest rates and their potential drawbacks:


More on the continuing need for the FED to ‘adjust’ repo rates:


Infographic

Liquidity is king:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1181298109596520448/photo/1


Website / Utility

One of the key figures of the genesis of crypto – Nick Szabo – his work is a literal treasure trove on crypto, money, and economics (highly recommended):

https://archive.is/H8UGk


That’s a wrap. See you back down this wonderful crypto rabbit hole before you know it!


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

ETN technical analysis

ETNseen from the 1W temporality we can observe how the price 1 month ago broke up the descending wedge causing an impulse of 4 bullish candles, the previous candle managed to close above the resistance located at 0.00000048, indicated in the chart above by the horizontal dark blue color, the closing has been with little volume, but the bulls have managed to mark signal continuation, the current candle is retreating in search of greater demand for the next move, so we should see a retreat into the area of demand located between the price range of 0.00000038 – 0.00000039, in this zone the price could find the necessary demand for a strong rebound of the price, the structure would be forming us a very necessary HL to determine if the price will continue rising, however, the price could also retreat to the zone of weekly demand located at 0.00000033, where the price would make us a double floor on the horizontal indicated in the graph above in black, if the price fails to hold the support and closes below that level, then we would have a new LL to the support located at 0.00000019.

ETN seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the price in its retreat has formed a bearish “leg”, so we should one more as a result of that pattern, the key support level is located at 0.00000038, if we get a rebound in that zone, the price should have a strong bullish momentum that moves the price above the resistance located at 0.00000048 to achieve our profit targets, the first profit target is located at 0.00000058, while the second profit target is located at 0.00000070.

In conclusion, ETN has dropped a large percentage since the month of March this year 2019, now the price is showing trend reversal signal, we still need confirmation that the price will form an HL, this would be a great buyback signal to continue to rise, the long-term profit target is located within the price range of 0.00000108 – 0.00000115, indicated in the 1W chart by a light blue rectangle, however, if the price falls below 0.00000033, it is very possible that the price will form a new LL towards the support located at 0.00000019, therefore, I recommend to follow the price action in 1D and always use stop loss in your trades to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin Price Clears First Hurdle

Few days back we looked at bitcoin price as it neared the 7400 area again. Since then price got a boost and rallied with yesterday’s candle giving a nice push through the 8400 area, which is where price stalled out on the last bounce.

Ideal situation is we stay above 8400 before making a run at the prior support level of 9400. There are some prior tops from earlier in the year at 8700 as well so we could see some struggle there first.

Patience is Key

Downside remains the same. 7600 area is support. I’m not initiating any new positions here as the upside is nearly the same amount as the potential downside. Still holding my adds from the past couple weeks at 8400 and 7800. 9400 is my first profit target.

Atlantis Won’t Save Ethereum Classic

ETC is a cryptocurrency that was the result of a hard fork of the Ethereum network in July 2016. A “fork” is a change to the software of the digital currency that creates two separate versions of the blockchain with a shared history.

In May 2016, the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), lauched by the Ethereum community, went for a crowd token sale to fund its development. After raising $150 MM, a flaw in DAO’s code was exploited by attackers and more than $50 million was drained out of DAO’s funds. A hard fork, ETC was implemented on the Ethereum that made the hacked transaction invalid.

One of the main difference between Ethereum and ETC is the coin supply. Ethereum has a uncapped total, but fixed yearly supply. ETC is set to between 210 MM and 230 MM ETCs. Also, Ethereum is planning to move to proof of stake and ETC is not willing to make. It appears ETC doesn’t have the same size or engaged community like Ethereum based on DApps and ICO launchings. Lastly and probably most importantly, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has no intent of supporting ETC.

Atlantis was successfully implemented on the Ethereum Classic (ETC) blockchain earlier this month, bringing more compatibility with Ethereum (ETH). However, development on the ETC chain remains several months behind ETH, with very little activity over the past six months.

Source

As we all know communities are vital to the sustainability of a blockchain, but equally important, if not more important is the development taking place on a blockchain. Without development, a blockchain is sure to loss ground against other competing blockchain and is also guaranteed to loss its user base.

So where is price headed next, lets go to the charts to find out? Price as been hovering between $2 and $10 since the beginning of 2019.

However, the chart suggests price is heading down to the weekly demand at $2.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Key Concepts 11 – What is Libertarianism?

Please click the link below to listen to the 57th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.



https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-key-concepts-11-what-is-libertarianism/id1441492450?i=1000452829550

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-im5ke-c296b9


Transcript

Key Concepts 11 – What is Libertarianism?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s installment seeks to give a general overview of Libertarianism a world view that has clearly influenced the early development of cryptocurrencies and which continues to underpin concepts such as Bitcoin Maximalism.

To be absolutely clear, Libertarians are not unified in their views – differences in key beliefs do, of course, exist but with that caveat in mind, we can paint a very broad picture of a typical Libertarian framework.

The Individual as Self-Sovereign

At the core of Libertarianism is a fundamental belief in the primacy of individual autonomy and freedom. The expression of which is the right to do as you please without the interference of an external authority. Security of life, liberty, and property are akin to a motto for Libertarians.

Order through Spontaneity

Libertarians would argue that order arises naturally as individual actors interact and of necessity, co-operate to achieve their own purposes. They contend that the most fundamental aspects of human society such as the ability to communicate (language), conduct trade and develop codes of conduct (or generalized law) have arisen without the direct supervision of a central authority. Civil society in their view is not the construct of an imposed order but rather the natural consequence of collective human interaction over time.

Law as Respect for the Rights of Others

Libertarianism is not a call to anarchic chaos (though a strand of Libertarianism does espouse just this) but a belief that the rule of law emerges through the right of individuals to freely pursue their own ends while also respecting the right of others to do so.

The Abolition or Limiting of Large State Government

Libertarians reject the exclusive right of central authorities to define morality, legality and individual action. They argue that centralizing bodies are always at heart -corrupt – seeking ultimately only to extend both their control and dominance throughout the society they oversee. This avarice applies to all areas of life whether it be financial, moral or political. Libertarians, therefore, look to ever smaller units of organization as more productive for both the individual and society. Thus, city-state over nation-state, nation-state over international body and so on.

Free Markets

Economic activity should be free of central oversight -the market will find its own balance and solutions will arise naturally over time. Central banks, fractional reserve lending, tariffs, and taxes have no place in the Libertarian model.

A Rejection of Force

Libertarians refute the right of the state to coerce either its own citizenry or the citizens of another nation. Under their model of organization – standing state-sponsored armies would cease to exist along with the removal of the ability of a central body ‘to force’ compliance.


The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency – the rule of none but the organization of many offers obvious parallels to many core Libertarian beliefs.

It’s worth noting that Libertarianism has never been meaningfully implemented at scale and ultimately it remains a theory awaiting an opportunity.

Thanks for listening.


Resources

How Libertarianism Works
https://people.howstuffworks.com/libertarianism1.htm


Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/libertarianism/


What is Libertarianism?
https://www.libertarianism.org/essays/what-is-libertarianism

IOTX technical analysis

IOTX seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price when arriving at the diagonal support of the major figure, indicated in the chart above by the red diagonal, has started to change its momentum upwards creating a bullish closing in the previous candle and a quick continuation of the movement during today, the series of candles look pretty good to continue its movement upwards, however, we also see that the current candle is finding resistance at 0.00000079 leaving a considerable wick above this level, so it is very possible that we will see a reversal in the movement and then continue in search of our profit targets, the first target is located within the price range of 0.00000114 – 0.00000142, marked on the graph within the light blue rectangle, the second target gain is located at 0.00000183, marked on the graph by the horizontal black color.

IOTX seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see the strong vertical impulse that has had these days, this can not be very consistent so to wait for a bass candles should be the safest in the coming days, the range I have delimited in the chart above by the 2 small horizontal dark blue, the resistance marked at 0.00000079 and the support marked at 0.00000061, the price should move within those levels and then try to continue with another bullish movement that reaches our first target, in the chart I have drawn the possible trajectory that should follow the price during the journey, the RSI indicator gives us a signal of overbought after having shot to break the bull pennant formed within the indicator, this is a signal of reversal.

In conclusion, IOTX has escaped me in its initial movement, now the safest would be to wait for a new entry into the price range mentioned above, we could have the following momentum and take profits within the price range of 0.00000114 – 0.00000142, however, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D, if the price closes below 0.00000061 we could fall to 0.0000050, so we must be very careful to avoid invalidations.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

BAT technical analysis

BAT seen from the temporality of 4H we can see how the previous candle has closed below the key support located at 0.00002387, the price has tried to make a pullback recovery, however, has not managed to test the zone correctly to confirm it as support, now the price could go in search of the demand zone at 4H located at 0.00002254, if you do not find enough strength to push up, increase the odds of a reversal into the next zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00002107 – 0.00002149 indicated in the chart above by a blue rectangle, in that zone of demand the price would be throwback us corresponding to the break of the major figure in 1D.

BAT seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe from a broader perspective the current movement of candles, we see how the price during its bearish movement was put into a parallel channel that was finally broken up during the closing of the weekly candle, the price after having found support at 0.00001614 achieved the necessary momentum to make the bullish movement that has achieved the recovery of the low range of the major figure located at 0.00002349, as I mentioned before, the price should make the reversal that tests the diagonal support of the parallel channel indicated in the chart by the dark blue diagonals, once the test is done correctly, we should have an upward impulse towards our first gain target located at 0.00002860 indicated in the chart by the black horizontal, our second target is located at 0.00003138, also indicated in the chart by a black horizontal.

In conclusion, the price action currently indicates a retracement, the first zone where it should find demand to follow its bullish movement is located within the price range of 0.00002107 – 0.00002149, if the price does not hold the support and confirms a much retracement May, then the price could fall to 0.00001800, even find strength in the previous support located at 0.00001614, it is still too early to determine with greater certainty the next short term move for BAT, an ABC pattern has been formed, we should have a similar retracement pattern or one of 5 waves, so I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D, always use stop loss in your trades to avoid invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

BITCOIN: WXY Double Combo possible terminations zones

Long time since I posted my last post about BITCOIN , I think last time was on August 24th and I talked about the evolution of a complex WXY Double Combo correction.

Answering to a request of @beiker, I am going to show you what I think can be the possible scenario currently on-going.

The Y leg was in doubt that time, we were either thinking a possible triangular shape or a Flat configuration in order to end the wave II of BITCOIN.

However, it seems that the most likely, in my opinion, is a finalization of the correction by a FLAT configuration for the “Y” leg:

In my opinion, currently we have 2 possible termination areas probabilistically speaking:

  • The area around the 100% of the FIBO length of the wave “W”, corresponding to 7400 USD
  • The area around 5500 USD which is around the 127% of the FIBO length of wave W

Of course, the volume is so small that I would no enter in any LONG position till a clear increase of this variable will become a fact.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

CryptoMood – an app review

Note: This post is written as an entry into the CryptoMood Content Competition hosted on Trybe. Why don’t you make a note to enter it yourself? Prizes are pretty decent and you have until the end of October to check CryptoMood out and to write your own review.

Let’s begin

The competition rules state that this post/review “should be written as an answer to the question “What would you have done if you had access to CryptoMood 3-5 years ago?” “

I’m going to make things really simple by answering that question immediately. My answer is this:

“I would use it the same way as I do now.”

This post tells you how I use it

I’ve been trialling CryptoMood for well over a month now, and I can happily report that it has passed the Brain Test.

What’s the Brain Test?

Like most ancient people (I’m in my 40’s), I’m stubbornly set in my ways: I like what I like and I don’t want to move outside of my comfort zone. I stick with what works for me.

But: I’m also well aware that technology moves ahead at a rapid pace, and that you neglect it at your own peril. I look in dismay at Octogenarians in my own family at the moment: at risk of being cut off from the world because they can’t send a simple e-mail message or operate a touch screen phone.

True story: A year or two back, I setup a laptop for a certain old lady. ALL she had to do was turn it on – one button. I configured it to boot up, connect to the internet through her cellular dongle and open her e-mail program for her, all without displaying any pop-ups or screens where she had to click “Okay” or “Yes” or anything like that. It was still too confusing for her, she still managed to get it wrong.

Trying not to end up like the poor little old lady I just spoke of, I make a habit of continually trialling new things. I keeps me abreast of the latest developments and teaches me how to use them. It also gives me a good idea of what is unique in the market, what works (or doesn’t work), and most importantly: what I should continue to use (and what I should just ignore).

This last part is the Brain Test. To have ‘passed the Brain Test’, means that something has been used by Bit Brain throughout the trial period, and now continues to be used by him. CryptoMood has passed the Brain Test.

Look, I’m not here to shill products, you know me better than that. I’m not saying that you must use CryptoMood. I’m not saying that it is my number 1 crypto tool or even that I use it daily. My primary crypto TA tools remain the raw charts. For monitoring the prices of coins, I still use CoinGecko. My primary FA tool remains the many crypto news sources which I check continuously.

What I’m saying is that CryptoMood does have value to me. Like most tools, there is more than one way to use it, it certainly offers more than just one function.

Personally, I use it mainly in two ways:

  1. Crypto Market Sentiment Analysis
  2. Missed News

Crypto Market Sentiment Analysis

CryptoMood does this very well, in fact, it’s designed around it. The app correlates news stories about different cryptocurrencies and then obviously performs some sort of quantitative algorithm on them – thereafter allocating each a score of “positive”, “negative” or “neutral”. That’s not really the part I use, as I already read most of the important crypto news reports (or in some cases just the headlines). The part I like are their sentiment charts:

The sentiment charts are a graphic format of the above-mentioned news analysis, as well as a chart of social media interaction.

To me, there is not that much value in tallying up number of positive or negative news stories about a coin. Obviously if a coin is, for instance, openly discovered to be a scam, then all the reports will be negative and that will be indicated as such. But in general the news reports we read tend to be subjective. It is more important for me to read the context of such information in the full news reports and to ignore the extremely large number of very poor crypto journalists out there, than what it is to see such information correlated into a single positive or negative news sentiment score. Mainstream financial journalists are notoriously poor at any form of crypto reporting.

Of much greater value is the social media score. There is a direct correlation between how often a coin is mentioned on social media and how popular it is at that time. For example: Chainlink has been trending lately, and we saw how that affected its price (even though it ended up climbing too high and “bubbling” a bit). Ravencoin would be a similar recent example.

Because markets are fickle, that which receives the attention at the time has got a far greater chance of rocketing up in price than what other coins do. For this reason, when social media sentiment on Cryptomood goes up, then one can expect the price of a coin to follow suit. Obviously the rise will not last forever. Social media trending will remain high as FUD sets in, and will continue to stay high when the bulls and bears fight each other during the inevitable price correction – so a modicum of common sense is still required when interpreting the charts.

Nevertheless, I find this feature to be very useful and it is one which most often prompts me to open my CryptoMood app.

Missed news

Though I read a lot of crypto news, I don’t read all of it. I also don’t follow every news service. Some days, when the market looks very dead (as it has done a lot of recently), I don’t even bother reading the news at all. This is when CryptoMood once again becomes very useful.

CryptoMood consolidates important news and presents it in a format that I can easily use to get myself up-to-date. It does this in various ways and you can pick which of them suits you at the time.

You can catch up on the days headlines, the latest social media posts or the trending headlines. Even better, you can select which one of the major coins you want to see news for, or you can see the news for all of them at once.

It is worth nothing that CryptoMood doesn’t have news for all the coins, but it does a good job of catering to most of the big names. You can make a Watchlist of the coins you are interested in, and then select which one you want to see news about from your homescreen. At the moment there are 18 coins to choose from. Note that the focus is definitely skewed towards the bigger name coins. For example, there will be no lack of Ethereum news, but you may struggle to find much happening in the Ontology feeds. Hopefully the smaller coin newsfeeds will be developed over time. In addition to giving you the news from your watchlist coins, CryptoMood will also tell you which coins are trending in the news, which is a useful feature in its own right.

Those are the two main things that I use CryptoMood for. But before I go, I should mention that there is a feature which allows you see the amount of crypto senton exchanges vs the amount of crypto withdrawn from exchanges to wallets in the past 24 hours. I’d be lying if I said that I used this, but for regular traders this could be invaluable information.

In conclusion 

CryptoMood forms a part of the very small group of crypto apps which I keep on my phone. That alone is high praise coming from me. I suggest that you check it out if you haven’t already done so. It’s free and easy to use, so what have you got to lose?

Yours in moody crypto

Bit Brain

Attribution: all screenshots from the CryptoMood app. Available on Google Playstore. Featured image from https://cryptomood.com.

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Bitcoin Making Us Sweat a Little Bit

At this point I don’t think anyone wants to see bitcoin break the 7,600 area support. There is alot of downside potentially from there and would mean a ton of buy order got eaten up.

So after Sunday’s down move we see price floating not far from that level today and it probably makes us all sweat just a little bit.

The good news is if price can hold this level again then it becomes a rather major support in the near-term and can act as a solid bottom for a potential run higher when bitcoin is good and ready.

When that is we can only guess. The 2020 halving could provide a catalyst as price runs up into it but that is still a ways off to expect it could happen now.