What Do We Know From the Chart? $BTC

It has been a grueling 12 months in cryptoland there is no doubt about that. From the top at the end of 2017, you can consistently see lower highs all the way down the chart below. IN FACT, there was NEVER a time that that a higher low even presented itself to me that was “Worth” buying…until now.

After price was pressed down against the 5800 level multiple times, it was only time until it broke. Now that the puke has happened it is then over the past month or so that we should be “watching”. I know you are wondering

$SPX Weekly Outlook: NEUTRAL… $QQQ $IWM $DJI

US Markets have ripped higher to start the year. This is the best start to the Russell 2000 since 1987 (pun intended). We are halfway into the first month of the first quarter and the Bull is Back in Gear!

Although this was quite the V-Shaped rally that, NO ONE expected (which is exactly why it happens), we are still in a very neutral to bearish area. You can see the V-shape, panic buying, that has progressed over the past few weeks.

All of this buying to get back to HEAVY RESISTANCE (at 2680), and the DECLINING 200 Day MA at 2760.

Where Are We in the US Market Cycle?

The US Market endured one of the worst holiday seasons of all time this past Q4. Since then we have rallied HEAVILY off the lows and in fact, “one of the best starts in stock market history by the Russell 2000” has happened.
Well you remember what happened in 2016, with the worst start to the year? It may be about to turn into the exact opposite.

Above you will see where I believe we are in the cycle. After rising so STEEPLY, and possibly topping, you get the initial down move. Then you get “THE BOUNCE”. We are coming up on

The Gold Trade $GLD $GDX $SLV $NUGT

Gold has been absolutely DESTROYED over the past couple years, and quite frankly been a big, fat, waste of mental capital. Well the wind and times may be changing for the pet yellow rock. Take a look…

I am taking a look at the GLD etf to make it easy and it is very liquid for any person who wants gold exposure (I personally advocate buying the physical metal). Notice how the monster rally took place while price was trading ABOVE the 200 weekly MA (blue line). Since the top we have been under this indicator for the majority of time

It’s Pretty Gross Out There Folks $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $FB

My goodness do US equities look like absolute dogpoop   . I just scrolled through about 100 charts from the S&P500 and seriously found 1 stock in an uptrend and 2-3 that looked like it found actual buyers and not just short covering bounces.
It is the worst I have seen since Jan of 2016 during that bear market (and this is worse). The momentum names have been hammered down and the largest ones can’t even bounce such as AAPL, FB, etc.

These names have been killed and some cases down over 40% and they can’t even bounce?
In markets like this TIMEFRAME is

EVERYONE TO THE LONG SIDE OF THE BOAT!!! ?‍♀️ $BTC $ETH #crypto

Folks! We may have something here. Ethereum is leading the way and grinding higher (likely will cause a spike) and Bitcoin just broke above consolidation. After being Bearish for 12 months and minus -80+% target reached…it’s obvious I am an intermediate bull and calling for higher prices now. Come on over to the long side to 5800ish to start!

 

Snuffles Wisdom: Why the 200 Day Moving Monkey Actually DOES Matter…

I am going to easily depict why the 200 day moving average does actually matter converning price and time on the chart. The 200 day moving average i simply the average price of the past 200 day “Closing Prices” plotted on a chart to show an average. You can see this on the chart below as the red line on a daily basis.

Look at how the red line simply holds price above it when price is trending up and hold price below it when price is trending down. Some will call this VOODOO, but this is a very simple mathematical

$SPX Weekly Outlook: Neutral Bearish $IWM $QQQ

Well folks we continued the bounce into the first week of the new year. This is not surprising as you will see in the chart below we bounced right ON the 200 weekly Moving Average which is longggg term support. After being pressed down daily, and puking on Christmas Ever, SPX has bounced right back to resistance st 2535ish.
So i know what you want to know…Now What??

Well 2680 is going to be MONSTER tough to get through. Like I said last week, considering my 401k is long only, I bailed due to the risk that is down in the intermediate

Why I Say “TURN OFF THE TV”! $AAPL $SPX $QQQ

The TV and talking heads on CNBC, from an intermediate to longer term perspective, may be some of the worst real time advice that is available to the mainstream today. You have to understand that they are making money off your clicks, and off your views and even the “Best” are mostly only good at “buying and holding” Let’s take a look at $AAPL over the past few months.

I have marked an area of $AAPL that, infamous Buy and Hold investor, Warren Buffett claimed to the world that the iPhone was greatly undervalued. Berkshire Hathaway is now currently 25% long

Have Investors Been Bird Boxed? Open Your Eyes! $SPX $IWM $GDX $TLT $GLD

The lack of emotion and worry in the market today is insane. There are so many investors and talking heads that are so sure the market bottom has been made and 2019 is going to be like 2017. Many believe that the bulk of the volatility is behind us…This is EXACTLY what markets do. They find a way to get the herd complacent and then BOOM! The market resets before anyone has a chance to get out.
Did you know the volatility in 2018 was not even in the top 20% of the most volatile years in the past 70+ years?