Arthur D. Cashin, Jr. is a managing director of UBS Financial Services Inc. and the Director of Floor Operations for UBS Financial Services at the New York Stock Exchange is a well-respected figure on Wall Street.
Traders are trying to remain positive as stocks came off their sharp morning lows, veteran trader Art Cashin told CNBC on Wednesday.
“If we rolled over here and violated the morning lows, then it would really begin to be a problem,” said Cashin, UBS director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange. “For now, everybody is kind of crossing their fingers and whistling past the graveyard, saying, ‘OK, we tested Monday’s lows,’” he added, around midmorning as the worst of the sell-off was abating.
“The S&P held, so I guess we can be in good shape,” said Cashin, who predicted rocky markets for the next few weeks as global trade tensions mount. “I think volatility is here to stay.”
However, there is one reason and one reason only why the US equity markets are off the Monday lows.
The moving average is the most ubiquitous and simplest technical analysis tool used by discretionary and system traders, market analysts and those pestering algos. The 200 moving average, the king of moving averages is used on a daily chart to determining the overall long-term market trend over the last 40 weeks.
Discretionary and system traders, market analysts and those pestering algos also use moving averages for support and resistance. For example, in February and April of 2018, the 200 moving avg. (yellow line) served as support for the Market.
In October of 2018, the same thing happened.
And again this week,
Whether you trade cryptos, stocks, forex, but don’t have the 200 moving average on your daily chart, consider plotting it on your daily chart as it might offer you an additional edge to accompany your trading strategy.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
There is an important difference between total visitors to a site and unique ones. In this case the 12.2mn include the multiple times a person visited the website.
Therefore, as a good Steemian you probably connect everyday which will make you count for a total of 30 visits.
Therefore, how many “unique users” does Steemit has?
Prior to publishing details about real Binance customers online Wednesday, a hacker operating under the pseudonym “Bnatov Platon” had a month-long conversation with CoinDesk reporters.
In the talks, Platon revealed how he allegedly hacked individuals behind an earlier hack in which 7,000 bitcoin was stolen from the world’s largest exchange.
Platon claimed his aims were altruistic, and that he simply wanted to bring the hackers’ identities to justice. However, it appears he also effectively asked for money in exchange for promises he would not release Binance’s customer data.
Platon and Binance would hold numerous talks, and reportedly struck a deal that was later aborted. CoinDesk has obtained full transcripts of these conversations.
Nakamoto.com is a website that’s more than twice as old as bitcoin, and for most of its life, it has just redirected to a San Francisco developer’s personal website.
Now, though, according to two industry sources, it’s under the ownership of one of the best-known investors in crypto: Balaji S. Srinivasan, former Andreessen Horowitz partner, founder of Earn.com and former chief technology officer of Coinbase.
The current site says, “Nakamoto is bitcoin country. HODL or GTFO.”
As of now, potential users can only enter their email address and await more information. Srinivasan never directly responded to multiple attempts to confirm he was running the site, but in a recent tweet he recommended a go-to-market strategy similar to the one the site appears to be using:
Being ignored doesn’t mean your product is bad, by the way. It can mean that you just didn’t market it right.
Being attacked is frequently a signal that you are onto something. Filter out the negativity and rank order the more rational critiques in a feature list.
Here is a quick post to tell you that I am doubling up on STEEM. One of the reasons is HF21 (find all the info from @steemitblog‘s post here) but this is neither the only one or the most important.
I think HF21 has its flows, yes it redistributes more to SP holder, but through this it will bring more investors, therefore more Buying pressure and a better STEEM Price I Believe.
More curation rewards also means more attention spent by SP Holder to curate content of quality. This would be beneficial to the entire STEEM Community.
In the end, what is the point to have 75% of your posts STEEM rewards / SBD if they are valued at a few cents, wouldn’t it be better to have 50% of a post valued a few $$$?
The Massachusetts-based crypto market research firm Coin Metrics says that 318 addresses hold at least $1 million worth of Tether (USDT), comprising 80% of the global Tether supply.
Bloomberg reported the company’s finding in a report on Aug. 7. Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter additionally mentioned that some of the USDT whales include major crypto exchanges, such as Binance and Bitfinex.
The report additionally notes that this is staggeringly different from the distribution of Bitcoin (BTC), for which whales apparently hold only around 20% of the total token supply. Moreover, over 20,000 BTC addresses reportedly hold at least $1 million in equivalent assets.
However, despite Bitcoin being more evenly distributed among its user base, the USDT whales may be able to swing the Bitcoin price on their own, as suggested by University of Texas at Austin finance professor John Griffin:
“The concentration of Tether suggests that control of Tether is in the hands of a few central players who can swing Bitcoin prices, and have a vested interest in doing so […] It also suggests that many exchange players have a vested interest in keeping the Tether game going.”
“Live AMA with our CEO @Kris_HK on @cryptocom ‘s Twitter this Thursday, 8 August, 11AM HKT.”
STEEM Trading Update by my friend @cryptopassion
Here is the chart of yersterday :
Here is the current chart :
And the support line at 0.21$ is now broken… and the drop is continuing. I just have a little hope that it is a trap from the market and that we will be back upper than this line in the coming hours. If it is not the case, the drop should become more powerfull and show us where the market want to go…
In Elliott Wave terms, Huobi Token began a wave one advance in November 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in April this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Huobi Token should be heading next towards the April peak in the red wave three.
Silver prices on surged more than 4% on Wednesday, this highest one day return in three years and in the process breached the key psychological $17 level.
although I’m very bullish on Gold,
but I think the red headed step child, Silver will perform better than Gold over the next several years. The gold/silver ratio is simply the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. And when this ratio hits 80, it reverses.
Since the mid-1990s, the ration has hit 80 four times. And when it reversed, silver outperformed gold over the next several years.
The Smart Money is recognizing what’s going on. They just bought over 85, 000 of the September call options, $17 strike price in SLV.
SLV is the iShares Silver Trust which seeks to reflect the performance of the price of silver. However, I think SLV is just beginning.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
This past Monday, while the DOW dropped over 800 points, gold rose 1.5% and in the process hit a six year high. The gain yesterday is on top of the 15%+ gain since December. Gold has a lot going for itself these days. We are on the brink of a currency war between the US and China, the British pound may collapse if England leaves the EU and the addition tariffs imposed by Trump isn’t helping the global economy which is slowing down.
The best thing to do in these trying times is to obtain some hard assets if possible in form of gold / silver coins. The next best alternative, besides bitcoin is to invest in funds that mimic the performance of gold.
The 800 lb gorilla gold electronic traded fund is GLD. It’s the largest fund in the space with over $32 billion in assets under management.
Five month ago I talked about GLD and laid out my projected price action for GLD.
Although gold hasn’t broken out yet, from its recent consolidation,
the GLD has broken out.
But don’t chase price, usually breakouts return to origin of the break out. So for those who don’t have any exposure to gold, the chart suggests to go long on the pull back.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Thanks to ALL of you, Steemit is still alive, stabilizing and preparing for the next Bull Run !
We reached 12.2 mn visits in July 2019!
There is an important difference between total visitors to a site and unique ones. In this case the 12.2mn include the multiple times a person visited the website.
Therefore, as a good Steemian you probably connect everyday which will make you count for a total of 30 visits.
Therefore, how many “unique users” does Steemit has?
This is a very important question that I will try to answer later on. According to the Beta Analysis from the website I use to compile these datas, it is around 7mn (vs c.7.39mn in June) !
One quick word about the Methodology
Datas can come from multiple sources listed in the end of this post
These sources get their raw datas from companies working with them and sharing their datas in order to get access to competitor’s ones, browsers add-ons, in-app softwares which allow the Big Data to have a very large panel of users (north of 20mn) in order to statistically have the number of users/visits…
I use these raw datas to make excels tables, graphs…
I] Traffic
Daily Steemit Traffic
In January 2018, we experienced the best daily numbers at 1.5mn+; they decreased a little under 1.5mn in February. Unfortunately the daily traffic on Steemit slowed down to c.400 000 in December 2018. Let’s hope it is just a little setback
In April 2019, the average daily traffic was closer to 450k per day. In May it increased a little more.
Another, explanation could be that people spend more time on apps (Partiko, Steepshot, Dtube, Steemmonster, eSteem…) which are not accounted in this analysis.
Numbers are still low BUT it is stabilizing would be more accurate since January 2018 !
Steemit website is ranked 5,461 worldwide. In June, it was sitting at 5,316. Steemit kept on deteriorating its ranking as it ranked 1400+ last year.
Google Trends
Google Trend is an Indice based on 100, which means that 100 represents the week when most people searched for “Steemit” on Google.
Google Trends are still very low but there is hope as Bitcoin Google Trend is increasing slowly again, maybe more crypto users joining decentralized platforms?
Bitcoin Google Trend Graph
Steemit Traffic share by country
In the Top 5, the strongest traffic increase came from United-Kingdom with +5.07% visits!
Mobile Traffic is increasing compared to last month as it represents 50.1% of the total
This is increasing as it was only c.42% in January 2019
This is useful to know how people use the Steem platform. Initiatives like @partiko (mobile app), @esteemapp (mobile app), @busy.org , @appics (Instagram), @actifit , @steemhunt , @utopian-io … will probably help the community to grow on mobile phones.
Be Careful with the Number of Visits
Also, remember that if you connect from a different device (home/work computer, mobile phone, tablet) you will count as a “new visitor” on each of these devices.
So as an example, let’s say you connected at home, at work and in the subway. You would represent 3 visits out of these 1mn+ Daily Visits.
II] Marketing Mix
Organic Search is once again improving and represents 67,3% of the incoming Traffic.
Organic search is when people research on Google. As the number of quality bloggers on Steemit increase, our content has a higher probability of being listed in Google’s Top results.
Different Channels:
Direct: When you type in you Web browser www.steemit.com Mail: When you connect to steemit.com through an e-mail link Referrals: When you connect to steemit.com through a link found on another website (github…) Social: When you connect to Steemit through a Facebook, Twitter, Instagram… page or link Organic Search: When you type a search term like “Crypto” on Google and you click on one of the following steemit link proposed to you
Traffic Share Evolution since inception of this analysis
The Organic Search Strategy which means the Content Strategy is working as people come across Steemit looking for Crypto, Blog, Travel, etc… related articles.
Referring Social Pages
Youtube represented 35% of all the social platform incoming traffic. Reddit is also a strong source of new visits on the Steemit Platform. Last month, Facebook was the first Social Media to bring traffic to Steemit.com with a 32.4% contribution.
5 most searched terms on Google that leads to Steemit.com
To be honest, I don’t really get how some of these requests lead you to Steem but… it does.
What are Steemians main interests?
Gender Demographics
Age Distribution
III] Steemit website metrics
You feel a bit confused about these 3 metrics? Let me explain.
Bounce Rate is the % of people that leave the Website after just navigating on a single Webpage. The lower, the Better
Daily Pageviews per Visitor is the average number of pages a visitor opens. The Higher, the Better
Daily Time on Site is the full time a visitor spend on the website before closing the internet Webpage. The Higher the Better
Metrics improved a lot compared to last month, especially the Bounce rate and pageviews per visitor. I dot not really know how to explain it but it is quite positive. It means we have a sticky Steemian userbase that just WILL not let go ! 😀
My assumptions for July 2019
Total visits to Steemit.com: 12,2mn
Assumption of Total unique visitors in July: 6.5-7mn
Total Daily visitors: 350-370k
Assumption of Total Daily Unique visitors: 220-250k
This is a collective achievement and I would like to congratulate all of us! We need to do better and get back to the January 2018’s type of numbers.
This monthly report makes me very optimistic about STEEM’s future !
As you probably all followed, we have a new communication strategy. We have Steemit Inc. delivering on numerous fronts (including HF21). The community is continuing to build. Just look at our dapps ecosystem and the latest @steemmonsters guild release (app coming sooooon :D) or @actifit @steem-engine token !
We have so many projects that have matured, such an amazing Community and with Crypto prices bouncing we might have a chance to attract new users very soon!
Bring your friends, engage with fellow Steemians and make little Tribes !
Next BigData Analysis coming on @steemmonsters @drugwars and other cool projects !
When oil dip to a low of sub $30 in 2016 and came back from the dead, I assumed all the derivative play would follow, kind of like the tide rises all boats.
It was only when I started analyzing the relative strength of the SPDR sectors against the SPY, that I notice the energy sector didn’t follow oil and has been on this steady decline.
This means Wall Street is saying the valuation of energy companies today at $50 barrel oil is lower than the valuation of energy companies years ago at $30 barrel oil. This is a really big deal if one can connect the dots. One theme is cheap credit / junk bonds funding the expansion of the shale companies, who are having a hard time paying their debt back…this one theme has enormous consequence to the state economies of Texas, the Dakotas, etc. However, that’s another post for a different time.
Last month, I spoke about VanEck Vectors® Oil Services ETF (OIH®) which seeks to track the overall performance of U.S.-listed companies involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which include oil equipment, oil services, or oil drilling and how the chart suggest OIH is headed lower over time.
I have another ETF that I think is worth shorting is the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). XOP seeks to provide investment results corresponding to the total return performance of an index derived from the oil and gas exploration and production segment of a U.S. total market composite index. Top holdings include: HollyFrontier Corp, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corp, Hess Corp, Valero Energy Corp and Marathon Oil Corp.
XOP looks very similar to OIH, with one exception. XOP breached the monthly demand and is now at all-time lows.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, Promotion Coin began a wave one advance on May 23. The red wave one finished on July 9, and the red wave two correction ended on July 23. The red wave three advance finished on August 2, and the red wave four correction ended on August 6. If this wave count is correct, Promotion Coin should be heading next towards the August 2 peak in the red wave five.
The debate over bitcoin’s role as a “safe haven” asset hit mainstream media on Tuesday, following reports that bitcoin’s recent price run could be attributed to Chinese capital flight.
Speaking with CNBC on Tuesday, businessman and co-host of NBC’s “Shark Tank” Kevin O’Leary and Morgan Creek Digital’s Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano took opposing sides in the conversation. Pompliano is a well-known bitcoin bull, while O’Leary played the role of skeptic.
Over the course of the conversation, Pompliano said over half of his net worth now resides in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by total value. O’Leary sought to describe the investment strategy as foolish in return.
“In any one stock, never more than 5 percent, in any one sector, never more than 20 percent,” O’Leary said. “I teach this stuff! You never go beyond concentrations of that nature! Fifty percent! Shame on you! That’s nuts!”
Responding to bitcoin’s role as a safe haven, Pompliano said the asset is negatively correlated with every other major asset class.
“[Morgan Creek Digital] has been banging the drum for over a year now saying that this is a non-correlated asymmetric asset. If you look at times of global instability like in May, where we are lobbing tariff threats and the trade wars are going on, bitcoin is up 55 percent. It’s got a negative correlation, -0.9 to S&P negative -0.8 to gold.”
Crypto lending startup BlockFi received $18.3 million in a Series A funding round led by Valar Ventures, the company announced Tuesday.
Valar, which was founded in part by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, was joined by Winklevoss Capital, Galaxy Digital, ConsenSys, Akuna Capital, Susquehanna, CMT Digital, Morgan Creek, Avon Ventures and PJC. Valar’s investment was its first in the cryptocurrency industry following prior investments in other fintech firms like Transferwise, a press release said.
According to a company statement, BlockFi plans on using the capital for additions to its product line up. The firm’s premier product, yield-bearing bitcoin deposits, launched in March. Besides deposits, BlockFi offers cryptocurrency-backed loans.
According to fintech-focused media outlet Coindesk, industry sources said that the agency has sent letters to at least three crypto exchanges in the U.K., including Coinbase, eToro, and CEX.io, requesting that they provide lists of users and transaction data.
HMRC is reportedly aiming to cooperate with crypto exchanges in a bid to identify individuals who evade taxes. According to the cited sources, the agency will probably only go back two or three years:
“If they [HMRC] do only go back two or three years, I think the interesting thing here is, that the individuals who went into crypto very early on in 2012-13 will not be affected. The ones who probably made the largest gains won’t be affected, it will be the people who came in around the time crypto peaked.”
Here is a quick post to tell you that I am doubling up on STEEM. One of the reasons is HF21 (find all the info from @steemitblog‘s post here) but this is neither the only one or the most important.
I think HF21 has its flows, yes it redistributes more to SP holder, but through this it will bring more investors, therefore more Buying pressure and a better STEEM Price I Believe.
More curation rewards also means more attention spent by SP Holder to curate content of quality. This would be beneficial to the entire STEEM Community.
In the end, what is the point to have 75% of your posts STEEM rewards / SBD if they are valued at a few cents, wouldn’t it be better to have 50% of a post valued a few $$$?
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”) hopes to open a London office “very soon” as the crypto exchange turns its focus to Europe. Brexit won’t hurt and if anything will be good for crypto, he predicts.
On Facebook’s Libra project, CZ anticipates practical benefits from potentially listing the coin, and also hinted at further collaboration.
The forthcoming Binance.US is working with the usual suspects among crypto’s reliable banking partners.
CZ calls crypto insurance a “flawed concept.” Binance instead dedicates 10 percent of its $100 million in quarterly revenues to its internal “SAFU fund.”
“The AMA will go live on the 7th of August, 5 PM UTC.”
STEEM Trading Update by my friend @cryptopassion
Here is the chart of yersterday :
Here is the current chart :
As expected, we are now testing the support line at 0.21$. It was foreseen in my previous posts and yeah it is happening… Not a good news but it is life, what can we do… So yeah, this support line is a major support line and as I explained yesterday, if we break this support, I think we will really go deeper… If you are thinking about buying new STEEM because it is SALE price, I suggest you to wait the results of the current test because if we break it, I think you will be able to buy a lot cheaper than now….
The book, The Millionaire Next Door, published 1996 and having sold more than 3 million books in essence is about living below your means and being financially responsible in order to allow your cash to work for you vs. you working for cash.
If you don’t have one of these type of neighbors to mimic, just follow what the Smart Money on Wall Street is doing.
TIGER 21
Wealthy investors are trimming their stock positions, amid anxiety around a trade war and instability in Washington.
Members of TIGER 21, an investment club for high-net-worth individuals, reduced their stock allocation to 21% from 22% during the second quarter, according to the group’s quarterly report.
TIGER 21, a group of about 700 people with at least $10 million to invest, stands for The Investment Group for Enhanced Results in the 21st Century.
“They are concerned about the fact that the markets were priced to perfection; they thought they reached real highs,” said Michael Sonnenfeldt, founder of TIGER 21.
Warren is the greatest investors of our lifetime. Many don’t know he made the bulk of his money selling insurance. Yes, he owns GEICO and many other insurance companies, but I’m talking about insurance in the form of options, where he collects premium with the right to buy the asset at a later day. For example, during the Great Recession, Buffett loaned Goldman Sachs $5 billion. Not only did Goldman agreed to pay a 10% dividend on preferred shares to Buffett, which cost Goldman about $500 million a year, but when Buffett finally cashed in, in total, Buffett made about $1.75 billion in cash and about $1.35 billion in stock, roughly a 62% return on a five-year investment.
With stocks at record highs, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold $1 billion more worth of stocks than it bought last quarter, its biggest net selling since the end of 2017. The result was that the company’s cash hoard — a major focus for investors in recent years — surged to a record $122 billion.
Between July 29th and Aug. 2nd the CEO of Amazon sold 1.5 million shares, while the stock sold off 6% during that same time frame. But Jeff is by no means hurting, he’s still the richest man in the world. Speaking of Amazon, the stock, well it’s sitting between daily supply and demand zones.
Some folks on Wall Street have a $2500 target. What I see is long term momentum decreasing. It most certainly can break out, but it most certainly can break down too. Only time will tell, but in the meantime, I’m following the Smart Money.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
