The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 52


Now that got our collective attention, didn’t it? China seems to have put a rocket under crypto – let’s see whether this massive price surge has any staying power. Closing above the 200-day moving average would seem to suggest so.

Lots to share this week – I could have tagged the majority of this recap ‘highly recommended’ from reflections on censorship resistance to a discussion of Bitcoin Maximalism and a whole lot in between.

Perhaps it’s worth restating that the goal of this series is to highlight the developments and narratives that comprise this space. News per se is not the focus but rather broader trends, tech, debates, and discussions.


Picks of the Week

Charles Hoskinson on crypto is a rabbit hole you will benefit from going down. This analysis of Bakkt’s underwhelming performance to date is also well worth checking out as is this article on the true value of crypto.


Twitter

President Xi had some positive things to say about blockchain:
https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/1187683577070096384

Looks like a great lightning wallet (demo only at this stage):
https://twitter.com/acinq_co/status/1185129586482388992

A Bitcoin Maximalist paradox explored:
https://twitter.com/jamie247/status/1186737291391307777

What’s worth your Bitcoin?:
https://twitter.com/ecurrencyhodler/status/1184536614900514818

Exploring the relationship between censorship resistance and sound money principles:
https://twitter.com/nlw/status/1184915873640919042

Binance continues to release new services/updates:
https://twitter.com/Binance_DEX/status/1184769566586486784

Summing up EOS:
https://twitter.com/chamith888/status/1187458298716590080

Repo market shows no signs of normalizing:
https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1187087559110860802

The US stock market seems fine…:
https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1186974959547158534


Articles

A careful translation of what Premier Xi Jinping actually said in relation to blockchain:
https://medium.com/@mablejiang/xi-jinpings-speech-at-the-18th-collective-study-of-the-chinese-political-bureau-of-the-central-1219730677b2

Unpacking Zuckerberg’s marathon congressional appearance (highly recommended):
https://messari.substack.com/p/then-they-fight-you

Identifying crypto’s most compelling aspect (highly recommended):
https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

An attack vector for the Lightning network?:
https://www.coindesk.com/researchers-uncover-bitcoin-attack-that-could-slow-or-stop-lightning-payments

Dissecting Bakkt’s rollout (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/federman-capital/bakkts-unsuccessful-launch-is-no-surprise-666ad3d1010

Debunking the 27year fiat meme (though fiat remains a race to the bottom):
http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-life-and-death-of-internet-monetary.html

How do peer to peer networks actually work:
https://www.binance.vision/blockchain/peer-to-peer-networks-explained

Macro trends fundamentally shaping our world (non-crypto specific):
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world/


Podcasts

A fascinating discussion of BTC by one of its earliest proponents (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/slp115-trace-mayer-bitcoin-as-ultimate-collateral/id1415720320?i=1000452887207


Charles Hoskinson – the founder of Cardano discusses his long history in the space, Cardano and crypto in general (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/charles-hoskinson-ceo-iohk-corporate-ethereum-dystopiaal/id1434060078?i=1000453005256


YouTube

A brief discussion of BTC as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and reserve currency (recommended):


Crypto Bobby on BTC Maximalism (highly recommended):


Crypto Lark discusses BTC beyond the metric of price:


Looking into the launch of Unstoppable Domains (don’t rush off to buy one but define a development worth being aware of):


Infographic

Bear market? Binance continues to bring in real profits – while burning supply:

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1184706820209807360/photo/1


Website / Utility

A treasure trove of investor/finance articles (non-crypto specific but relevant to investor sentiment etc.):

https://investoramnesia.com/2019/10/20/psychology-trend-following-real-estate-momentum/

Once again, I learned a lot this week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Unusual Options Activity In World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc.

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc., an integrated media and entertainment company, engages in the sports entertainment business in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

Along with watching the kung fu movies on Sat. it was all about watching wrestling on TV as well.  My era of wrestlers didn’t involve WWE superstar, John Cena, and his signature “you can’t see me” hand gesture.  Nor did I ever see Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson wrestle.  The only screen I ever see Dwayne on are the moving screen.  My era involved André the Giant and Hulk Hogan.  The rivalry that had is perhaps is one of the most important in professional wrestling history.

Image result for Andre the Giant’s

Andre the Giant’s real name was André René Roussimoff who also happen to be a French actor as well.  But his wrestling name was so fitting.  By the time Andre was 12, he was already 6 foot 3 and 240 lbs and later grew to 7 foot 4 and 540 lbs.

Image result for Hulk Hogan,

Terry Gene Bollea aka Hulk Hogan, was the Man.  He was the face of the WWE back then and is one the most popular professional wrestlers of all-time. However, I never got the pleasure to play his video game, Hulk Hogan’s Main Event.

Then I grew up and found out the WWE doesn’t exist to really entertain us, it’s about making money.  If you had held the stock in the last five years, well you would be up about 400% with EPS growth of 45% per year the last three years.  But if you still hold the stock, well you would be down about 30% since April.  The decline in the stock in recent months is largely due to declines in their viewership.  For example, SmackDown TV ratings declined 13% in the first quarter 2019 and the average attendance at WWE’s live events across North America fell 4% in June.

However, with the company’s third-quarter earnings report less than a week away, analysts remain bullish on WWE’s longer-term outlook.

Morgan Stanley Weighs In

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne reiterated his Overweight rating and $85 price target for WWE.

Swinburne said WWE has simply been struggling to meet high expectations in the past two quarters, but he said little has changed about the company’s fundamental outlook.

“Expectations aside, WWE continues to offer exposure to an asset with unique IP, rapidly growing revenues and FCF, and now at its lowest multiple since late ’17,” he wrote in a note.

Morgan Stanley is forecasting high single-digit EBITDA growth for WWE through 2025, and Swinburne said the 2019 sell-off is a buying opportunity.

Source

And the Smart Money is taking notice because today I noticed bullish buying in the January $75 call options where they bought over 6,000 contracts.

At the moment, the momentum is to the downside, but limit. With three months before these contracts expire, there is plenty of time for momentum to reverse…and the catalyst could be when WWE announces earnings next week.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

PPT technical analysis

PPT seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the price has made a throwback to the resistance previously broken during the movement occurred in October 2019, the price has tested the area very well and the candle is showing a strong momentum of more than 20%, we can also see how the candle is so far above the support located at 0.00005310, indicated in the chart above by the horizontal black color, this is a key level of reclaim, if the price manages to close this way, it is very possible that we will see a next impulse towards our profit target located within the price range of 0.00007213 – 0.00007774, within that area the price could find strong resistance that makes the price fall.

PPT seen from the temporality of 4H, we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, where we see the momentum that has taken the price after testing the diagonal and enter the 1D demand zone, in this chart I just want to show the area of supply located at 0.00006561, indicated by the red horizontal color, this is an important supply level to take into account during the bullish movement, and is usually reversed once reached that level.

In conclusion, PPT shows a clean diagonal test so far, the current candle in 1D has found strong imposed, that if we manage to close above 0.00005310, it is very possible that we have a next bullish movement during the development of the current movement, however, if the price falls below the zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00004372 – 0.00004666, the price could go down in search of the bottom located at 0.00003438, with high probabilities of a greater reversal, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop loss in all your operations to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

AE technical analysis

AE seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe how the structure is forming a rounded floor, an upward pattern that should drive the price if we manage to stay above the zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00002114 – 0.00002248, indicated on the graph by the light blue rectangle, our first target profit is located within the price range of 0.00002748 – 0.00003145, this is an offer level where it is very possible that the price finds strong resistance and we have a correction towards the support delimited with the curvature of the rounded floor, the possible trajectory that the price could follow I have drawn in the chart above.

AE seen from the temporality of 4H, we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, the minor figure has formed an ascending wedge where the price has been contracting during its development, in the chart I have placed a yellow circle that indicates the important area to take into account during the next candles within this temporality, the price has to close tightly above the resistance of the figure so that we can reach our first target, otherwise the price could lean towards the theoretical target of this pattern and go in search of the first zone of demand in 1D.

In conclusion, the price has remained forming a series of HH and HL from the point where it found the support located at 0.00001760, until now has granted a 40% profit, which is something we must have very present to ensure our next move, for now the most advisable would be to wait for the reaction of the price in the resistance of the lower figure and look for some reversal in case of not closing up with sufficient force, always remember to place their stop loss in all their operations to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Two Minute Crypto – Altcoiner or Bitcoin Maximalist?

Please click the link below to listen to the 59th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.



https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-altcoiner-or-bitcoin-maximalist/id1441492450?i=1000454379627

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-6uw6t-c43372


Transcript

Altcoiner or Bitcoin Maximalist?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode is a little more personalized in tone and explores my own particular process of identifying the term which best exemplifies my crypto investment thesis.

If you’ve spent any time at all surveying the crypto landscape you’ve doubtless encountered the Alt Coiner – BTC Maximalist fault line. These two camps rarely have much good to say about each other though Bitcoin does generally seem to have the upper hand in any proof of concept argument. Regular listeners will know that I favour BTC over any other project in crypto. I won’t rehash this oft-stated position. However, I’m certainly not a BTC Maximalist – a crypto worldview I attempted to shed light on in last week’s episode.

As previously discussed, BTC accounts for approximately 70% of my crypto portfolio. It is also the only crypto I dollar-cost average into each and every week. Nonetheless, there are a number of Altcoin projects which I believe have obvious and sustainable potential – Ethereum, EOS and Cardano primary among them. In addition, I have a number of small positions in ‘wildcard’ projects such as Elastos, Nuls, NEO and others. Bitcoin Maximalist, therefore, is definitely not a good fit nor however, is Alt-Coiner. If I had to pick only one – it would be Bitcoin but, of course, I don’t. While I’m fairly confident BTC will remain unchallenged in terms of its claim as a store of value – blockchain offers so much more and there’s absolutely no proof that there, ‘can be only one.’

In pondering this I’ve finally decided on the nomenclature that correctly reflects my crypto investment thesis – I’m a Bitcoin Majoritarian. Yep, I just invented a word but I’m sure you get my meaning. The majority of my holdings are BTC. The majority of my future planned investments remain targeted on BTC. In addition, the majority of my time is spent researching BTC tech, developments, and market conditions – ergo I’m a BTC Majoritarian. Mostly Bitcoin but with a minority interest in other applications and iterations of crypto. So now I can rest easy and spend the next few years spreading BTC Majoritarianism to my heart’s content!

Thanks for listening.

APPC technical analysis

APPC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has remained following an excellent curvature, which represents a good sign of a close reversal of trend, the current series of candles has maintained a bullish movement from the double floor formed on 2 September 2019, the movement is being strongly supported by the RSI indicator, which shows bullish divergence, signaled within the indicator by a dark blue diagonal, the price could continue to rise from the current position to reach our first target profit located within the price range of 0 to reach our first target located within the price range of 0.00000758 – 0.00000929, indicated in the graph by the light blue rectangle, however, we could also have a backward movement close to the demand zone located at 0.00000333, indicated in the graph by the lower horizontal dark blue color before continuing towards our profit targets, in the graph I have traced through the drawing tool, the possible trajectory that the price should follow during its movement (the drawing only expresses the movement and not the time period).

APPC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the price has formed us 2 important HL after the double floor created in the zone of demand, this is a very good bullish signal, it is quite possible that this is the reason why we are currently seeing the formation of a symmetrical triangle that we can see in the chart delimited by the 2 dark blue diagonals, the price should continue to move within this continuation pattern before the bullish break, the black arrow within the chart indicates the target that should reach the next impulse.

In conclusion, APPC has an excellent candlestick structure that should result in a next bullish move towards the price range of 0.00000758 – 0.00000929, currently the formation of the triangle should give rise to an HL close to the support of the figure, before looking for the break, the safest position would be after confirming the break of the pattern, in the 1W chart I have also placed the next gain target located at 0.00002194 and the third profit target located at 0.00003791 which should be long term objectives if the price maintains the trend, for the moment I recommend to be very attentive to the development of the price within the lower figure to look for the best position in the long run, always remember to place stop loss in all your operations to avoid the possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200 – Part 3

Beyond Meat priced its initial public offering at $25 and skyrocket 800% in less than four months. Beyond Meat, a maker of plant-based meat controls about 10% of the plant based meat market.  And because they have achieved “first to market” they are the new IT THING on Wall Street.  But there valuation is beyond ridiculous.   Their valuation is higher than roughly 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 index and their “first to market” competitive advantage expired.

Kellogg (K) introduced “Incogmeato” and their plant-based burger patties, Chik’n tenders, and Chik’n nuggets which go on sale in early 2020.  Hormel Foods announced its plant-based meat substitute called “Happy Little Plants” is available at select retailers.  The Impossible Foods launched the Impossible Burger through Burger King in August.  Kroger said they will sell a new line of branded plant-based burgers, other meatless products like dips, pasta sauces and cookie dough in the coming months under their Simple Truth Plant Based label.

Beyond Meat Inc. was initiated at sell with a $120 price target at CFRA, with analyst Arun Sundaram saying the plant-based meat company will be overtaken by bigger players entering the space.

“We think larger packaged food companies will end up as the category leaders in the space given their vast global footprint and embedded relationships throughout the supply chain,” Sundaram wrote in a note. “Yet we expect Beyond Meat to be the greatest disrupter in this space since no public packaged food peer comes close to Beyond Meat in terms of research and development spend as a percentage of sales.”

Sundaram notes that “many think Impossible Foods’ Impossible Burger tastes better than the Beyond Burger.”

Source

The call is a bit late and should have been made when the chart was suggesting that price was going lower.

But now we are just $10 from that $100 level I talked about one month ago.

The $100 level represents price at a discount.  But, don’t listen to me, just pay attention to what the Smart Money is doing.

Heading into the third quarter of 2019, a total of 16 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 16 from one quarter earlier.

With a general bullishness amongst the heavyweights, some big names have jumped into Beyond Meat, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND) headfirst. Citadel Investment Group, managed by Ken Griffin, created the most valuable call position in Beyond Meat, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND). Citadel Investment Group had $117.8 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. OZ Management also initiated a $11.9 million position during the quarter. The other funds with brand new BYND positions are Brad Farber’s Atika Capital, Robert Henry Lynch’s Aristeia Capital, and Anthony Bozza’s Lakewood Capital Management.

Source

I personally envision the $100 level will be an accumulation level for the Smart Money.  I think price will hang out near the $100 level for a bit, until the Smart Money is able to fill all their buy orders and then I think price will move higher.

Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200

Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200 – Part 2

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BTC update: 21 October

As BTC grows so it slows. This is a little frustrating to those of us who have grown used to the rapidly changing BTC market of old, but on the other hand, it’s a positive sign of adoption and of maturation.

While on that subject, I would like to remind everybody just how far we’ve come since late 2017 (when BTC was at the height of a major bull run). We may not see the developments taking place on a day-to-day basis, we may not notice how much the market has changed since then, but it HAS!

Think of the primitive wallets you used two years ago. Think of the clunky exchanges and their primitive user interfaces. Think of all the new crypto derivatives products, the regulations which make institutional investment possible, the constant mainstream news coverage. The price doesn’t reflect it, but crypto has made good use of the bear market and subsequent consolidation period. Crypto has grown – something that will stand it in good stead when hype picks up again. For example: Bitcoin’s hash rate is currently about six times what it was when BTC was at its All Time High. Crypto is fully ready for the next bull run, now it’s just a question of waiting for the investors to catch up!

Without further ado, let’s look at some charts:

Forecast:

My last couple of posts on Twitter have looked something like this:

It is my belief that BTC price is forming a bear flag, from which I expect it to drop into the low $7000s, possibly even into the $6000s if the $7000 psychological support level fails to hold.

For this reason I have made the mid-to-low $7000s my “Buy Zone”, while anything in the $6000s is my “Buy Like Crazy Zone”. I do not anticipate a scenario where BTC drops below $6000.

However, my already-published Bear Flag Charts can not be quite correct. I say this because BTC broke below their base this weekend, but then recovered. Analysing this, I have concluded that the most likely scenario is that a bear flag is still forming, and I have adjusted my charts accordingly to incorporate the recent price dip. My latest interpretation of the flag is depicted by the shaded rectangle on the chart below.

The most likely short-term future scenario is now that BTC will climb in price until it reaches the top of the flag again. This will occur at approximately $9000. Thereafter, BTC should drop back to the bottom of the flag and break through into the “Buy Zone” (at least I hope it will). I expect such a downwards break to occur in the last three days of October.

You may have noticed a thin, dotted, horizontal red line at $7600 on the charts, this is merely a price alert that I have set at that level. If it triggers, I will fine-tune my own buy prices, because I’m looking to buy from $7500 downwards.

Accuracy and probability:

My original bear flag was a text book example of a bear flag. For this reason I had fairly high confidence in it, though flag and pennants are never a sure thing. After the adjustment of the flag, it may be that it becomes more of a Descending Channel than a bear flag, but this doesn’t really matter because:

1) The outcome of the two patterns is identical,
2) The two patterns have similar levels of predictive reliability (around 70%).

Unfortunately there are many different possible scenarios that could occur from this point forwards. For this reason it is difficult to confidently predict any specific scenario with certainty. BTC may continue to rise now and break out of the top of the flag – destroying it completely, or it could continue sideways and begin to create some other pattern.

What I have described in this post in my best guess, based on current levels of market hype (low), volume (stagnant), previous price movement patterns and long-term trendlines. I am about 50% sure that BTC will take a dip to the low $7000s/$6000s, find the long-term trendline and then move gradually upwards again. It’s also worth remembering that during times such as these, markets often plunge unexpectedly, followed by a very rapid recovery. Such a price movement may move well beyond the levels predicted, and could be exploited by shrewd traders who have their order prices set to catch it.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Intuitive Surgical Strikes Again

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets da Vinci surgical systems, and related instruments and accessories. Its da Vinci Surgical System transforms the surgeon’s natural hand movements outside the body into corresponding micro-movements inside the patient’s body.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. has been at the forefront of robot-assisted surgery for more than two decades. The beauty of their products is they allow quicker recovery times for patients undergoing surgery through minimally-invasive surgery which lower the bill for all parties involved.

Traditional open surgery involves a large cut so the surgeon can see the part of the bodying being worked on.  Minimally invasive surgery involves small cuts and accessories like small tools, cameras, and lights that fit through several tiny cuts in your skin.  And minimally invasive surgeries done by robotic technology allows for more precise control through an operative field in 3-D resulting in a speedier recovery spent at home vs. in the hospital. 

Robotic surgery is steadily carving its niche across a wide array of surgical fields within MedTech. In neurosurgery, image-guided robots enable the examination of brain lesions without resulting in any major damage to adjacent tissues.   In orthopedics, robotic surgery helps shape the femur to precisely fit prosthetic hip-joint replacements. Currently, an increasing number of orthopedic surgeons are opting for robot-assisted surgery for knee, hip and spine.  Robot-assisted surgery has also been finding its application in urology, especially in prostatectomy. Complex gynecological surgeries have also been witnessing the increasing adoption of robotics, using the Da Vinci Surgical System.

Source

It’s no wonder that over
the last five years, Intuitive Surgical earnings per share have grown 21% per
year, which has translated for their stock price increasing 28% per year during
that same time frame.  And this past
week, their earning results continue to impress.

Intuitive Surgical
reported earnings per share of $3.43 a share in the third quarter, beating
expectations of $2.96.  Revenue also
topped expectations at $1,128 million, compared to $921 million in the third
quarter of 2018.

The company credited the earnings beat due to increased U.S. general surgery and worldwide urologic procedures utilizing their da Vinci robot.

Image result for da vinci robot

275 da Vinci robot were shipped in the quarter, an increase of 19% vs. the year-earlier period.  There are now there were 5,406 installed da Vinci systems worldwide and this number will only increase as the cost of health care continues to rise.

Source

Speaking of rising, where is the stock heading next, let go to the charts to find out? Right now the playing field is between the weekly demand at $450 and the weekly supply at $580.

Thus, the chart suggests to go short if price makes it up to the daily supply at $580.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Warren Buffett is Stock Piling Cash – This chart may be why

The Oracle of Omaha has been building a warchest of cash and generally when that happens it is because he’s betting on a discount buying opportunity.

Whether that comes to fruition and we see a drop in stocks in the next year or so is anyone’s guess. However, it seems the chart in this post is an indicator Buffett pays attention too.

Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio

The Wilshire is considered the benchmark index to measure all U.S. equities. After all it has 6,700 stocks in it, thus we can be comfortable that it is a solid representation of the broader market.

Well apparently Buffett, and others, use the index against nominal quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) to determine valuation of the market.

That is what the chart is showing and as you can see based on that measure the market is valued high – as high as it was in 2008 with valuation climbing for nearly 10 straight years.

Does this guarantee stocks will go lower? – Nope. I learned long ago that nothing has to happen, we can always get more overvalued.

It does mean there is alot of downside risk right now for what is likely limited upside, which is usually not the risk profile you want for an investment.