Worst Stocks Of This Decade

December 21, 2019 Published by rollandthomas

Yesterday, I wrote a post about Facebook. Mark Zuckerberg was onto something in his dorm room at Harvard before he dropped out to focus on Facebook. The company went public in 2012, dropped 50%, switch their focus to mobile and the stock price hasn’t looked back. If one invested $1000 in Facebook during the IPO, you would be up over $5000 or a 500% ROI.

But all that is glitter is not gold. “All that glitters is not gold” is an aphorism stating that not everything that looks precious or true turns out to be so. This can be applied to just about any experience in life. It could also be applied to the stock market.

So the worst stocks of the decade go to:

Apache. Ten-year performance: -78%
Freeport-McMoRan. Ten-year performance: -68%
Devon Energy. Ten-year performance: -66%
The Mosaic Company. Ten-year performance: -65%
CenturyLink. Ten-year performance: -63%
Kraft Heinz. Ten-year performance: -56%
Perrigo. Ten-year performance: -54%
Under Armour. Ten-year performance: -54%
Occidental Petroleum. Ten-year performance: – 51%
Schlumberger. Ten-year performance: -31%

Now if you know these companies, 40% of the companies on the list were in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas sector (aqua block) was the worst performing sector this year.

Source

Technology: 48%
Communication: 32%
S&P 500: 31%
Financials: 31%
Industrials: 28%
Staples: 27%
Discretionary: 27%
Real Estate: 26%
Materials: 22%
Health Care: 20%
Energy: 10%

And Energy compared to the SPY has under-performed going back for five years.

Now the Dow Dogs involves buying the ten stocks with the highest yields among the thirty in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of each year then holding them until the end of the next year. I don’t know what they call the worst stocks of the decade and potentially hold them for 10 years. But that’s what the Smart Money is doing.

Over the last several weeks, I have been posting about the bullishness going on in the oil and gas industry by way of the Smart Money buying up assets. In particular Sam Zell, Steven Cohen, Ken Griffin and Ray Dalio, all billionaires are buying distressed oil assets in the US.

I have to start looking at this sector as well. Besides that’s the premise of my trading edge, follow the Smart Money. I’m feeling the trade that Ray Dalio bought more of. Ray didn’t become wealthy by buying asset at high prices. Recently Ray’s hedge fund bought an additional 1,177,026 shares to the fund, increasing his stake to over 2.5 million shares.

EQT Corporation operates as a natural gas production company in the United States. It produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil. EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. with its asset base located in the heart of the Appalachian Basin with a focus in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.

I would like to see price close above $13 as confirmation that price will continue to rise.

I thought EQT Corp was a Master Limited Partnership, but they aren’t, so don’t they pay much dividends. Thus, I’m not interested in own the stock, but look what I just found. The Smart Money already bought LEAP options going out to January of 2021. So best believe I will be buying some options on Monday.

Look at that, went from taking about the worst stocks of the decade to wanting to get in the worst sector of decade on Money.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

So Was The FDA Approval Already Priced Into Amarin’s Stock???

December 17, 2019 Published by rollandthomas

Amarin Corporation plc, a pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapeutics for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases in the United States.

The company’s lead product is Vascepa, a prescription-only omega-3 fatty acid capsule, used as an adjunct to diet for reducing triglyceride levels in adult patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. It is also involved in developing Vascepa for the treatment of patients with high triglyceride levels who are also on statin therapy for elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

About a year ago, Amarin published results from a study that show patients who took Vascepa in addition to a statin experienced a 25% reduction in risk of a heart attack, stroke or other serious cardiac event, compared with patients who took a placebo instead of Vascepa. Thus, Amarin wants to get Vascepa approved for other use, which could potentially generate up $2 billion in sales.

Assuming avg. P/E of 15-24 for companies in the pharmaceutical space and Amarin’s market cap, if Vascepa sales can reach $2 billion in the years to come, the stock would be worth approx $125.

Yesterday, the FDA approved the label extension for Vascepa, but the stock price seem bored by the announcement.

Amarin (AMRN) investors are scratching their heads as to why the stock tumbled following the announcement that the FDA has approved the label extension of the company’s fish oil drug, Vascepa.

That’s good news for Amarin, but less good news for long-term investors. You see, according to the principle of “buy the rumor, sell the news,” the major catalyst for Amarin stock to rise has now been removed, and traders who were awaiting the FDA approval have now reaped all the gains they’re going to get from that particular catalyst. Hence, they’re selling the stock today.

One of these sellers, Stifel’s Derek Archila, wrote in a research note to clients, “We are taking profits post approval and heading to the sidelines.” Indeed, the analyst downgraded AMRN from Buy to Hold, while slightly raising the price target to $28 (from $26), which still implies about 20% upside from current levels.

Source

Many think Amarin’s stock price at $22.88 is a steal and think the stock is worth $50 in the future. According to FiercePharma, market chatter is now valuing the company at a $20 billion market cap, or $55 a share, if the company is acquired. So is the stock still worth a buy?

NOTE: since Sept of 2018, the stock has increased from $3 to a little over $20 in 14 months.

To answer the question if the stock is still worth a buy or not, you have to know your time horizon. Once you know your time horizon, than you can select your target price.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

ENJ technical analysis

December 16, 2019 Published by mrbullishsail

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price has managed to close above the accumulation range, the previous candle has tested very well the high range of this area with strong buying pressure, we should have a continuation of the movement in the short and medium term, as soon as the price manages to close above the weekly bid located at 0.00001424 indicated within the chart by the horizontal black, the price can go up strongly, our profit targets are located within the chart by the horizontal upper black color.

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has made us a range on the diagonal support that we see indicated within the chart by the diagonal red color, we could have a new test of the area of supply located at 0.00001424 before a setback to the area of demand in 1D located at 0.00001165 indicated inside the graph by means of the horizontal purple color, if this scenario happens, we would have an ascending triangle in the minor figure as a sign of continuation bullish, inside the graph of above I have also indicated by means of the green arrows the series of HL that has formed us the structure of candles during the accumulation and ascent outside this range.

In conclusion, ENJ maintains an excellent bullish movement through a series of three HL during the movement out of the accumulation range, currently the price could be forming an ascending triangle as a sign of continuation, to follow the rise, the price must keep the daily demand zone located at 0.00001165, if this happens we could have a break in the weekly supply zone located at 0.00001424 and with this a strong bullish movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00001942, our second profit target is located at 0.00002402, our third profit target is located at 0.00002953, and the highest target is at 0.00004631, therefore, I recommend following the price action in 1D very closely and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin – Approaching 2020

December 16, 2019 Published by bitbrain

Oh how I wish we were seeing the kind of Bitcoin price action that we saw back in December of 2017! Alas, it can’t always be a bull market. However, while reading this post, remember that when looking at investments it is LONG-TERM performance that counts! Everything else is just “noise”.

Let’s fall into the trap of getting lost in some of that noise – just for the hell of it, and thereafter we’ll zoom out and see how the long-term market looks.

All is well

Everything is still going according to plan (almost uncannily so), even if the trend is negative. Counter-intuitively, this is a positive sign: a predictable market is more stable and easier to analyse accurately, it has less chance of giving (good) analysts a shock.

The current market has been incredibly predictable. My post of 27 November (uncreatively titled “Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)”) shows exactly how predictable that market is, and how I am still calling the market today based on analysis that is now five months old. I strongly recommend reading that post as background to this one, it gives a much better indication of the age and accuracy of these predictions, as well as an explanation of what they are based on.

Short-term

The yellow price prediction line seen in the post mentioned above is still in play. Remember: it is a rough indication of expected price movement – a “best guess” scenario and should only be taken as such.

The fact that it is still doing a good job 29 days after its creation is a positive sign. With BTC price sitting where it is right now, we can see that the prediction line is sitting about $500 below it. Again, don’t read too much into that, but – it is likely that price may drop another $500 or so before reaching the turnaround level.

The descending channel (you DID read that post I recommended earlier, didn’t you?) is still the dominant local price-governing pattern.

You can see my faint Fib-levels within the structure of the channel, levels which determine short-term price jumps, but which will ultimately become inconsequential in the long-term. Like other savvy investors, I have been making use of these levels to stack sats when BTC dips to the lowest levels, it helps a little with ROI in the long-term.

Medium-term

Looking at 2019 in isolation, it is noteworthy that despite not being a great year, BTC is up 91.69% from its start-of-year price ($3691.87 on Coinbase at 00:00 GMT on 1 January; measured to time of writing). Annual performance is a trivial and arbitrary figure, but the more traditional financial markets are fascinated by such numbers, so why not ask them how many of their assets can match that figure?

Far more importantly on this chart, we see the triple convergence point of three support lines: medium-term, semi-long-term and long-term. We are just passing the end of that convergence point right now!

An explanation of this convergence point can once again be found in the previous post, though we will cover it briefly on the next chart. The significance of passing this point is that BTC price movement should now turn positive.

Hark. Bit Brain has spoken.

“Turning positive” implies that BTC price will start to move towards the top of the six-month-old descending channel and eventually break through it. For what it’s worth, my charts place that breakout date in the second week of March 2020. Consider that date to be highly flexible, though it shouldn’t happen much later than that.

Long-term

As I said above, this chart gives an idea of where the other two converging lines originate from (the third line of the convergence point being the base of the descending channel). This is why BTC is now crossing a triple-support threshold.

The “Long-term base trendline” is the most important of the three lines by a country mile. It is the only line that will carry and meaningful significance into 2020.

It is critical that BTC does not execute a definitive break through this trendline. At five years old, it has been Bitcoin’s reliable support level for half of BTC’s life, a situation which I deem unlikely to change soon. A small break below it (such as that of late 2015) is fine, but a big break would mean that all bets are off and that I need to go back to the analysis drawing board.

It is worth nothing that long-term BTC trends may curve slightly downwards as opposed to being straight like this trendline is. But beware of taking the majority of curved-line posts too seriously! I’m sure you’ve all seen the popular “stock-to-flow” charts circulating around; it’s a pity they are just very broad and largely useless “predictions” – much like a TA version of “psychic” readings or astrology. Perhaps I’ll write a post to debunk them sometime, or perhaps you can just read these two posts and figure the problem out for yourself: (in addition to the problem of the ridiculously wide channels they use – which still get breached.)

In fact, ENSURE you read those posts, since the economics behind halvings is still ridiculously misunderstood in the crypto space.

Conclusion

Passing the convergence zone today finally puts us back on the path towards higher prices. The mini bull run of May/June did us no favours – prematurely pushing the price of BTC high above the base trendline and causing it to fall for the remainder of the year. That fall should now finally come to an end, though is has already caused further damage (after that caused in 2018) to the altcoin market and its credibility.

I see this as a great time to buy: we are at the (probable) end of a descending channel, near the bottom of that channel and about to hit firm support and an upwards trend. The altcoin market lies in tatters, meaning that many literally unbeatable deals await the brave investor. Having spent a little money on large-cap alts recently, I think that I may be ready to chance a little on smaller cap coins now. The opportunity to buy into genuinely good crypto projects with a total market cap of $1 mil or less is too good to pass up on!

If anyone is going away soon and won’t be reading my blog for a while: I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Please travel safely and don’t do anything silly like drinking and driving. I did some of that in my younger days and it is nothing to be proud of – it’s just incredibly stupid and selfish. Be better than I was.

May Santa bring all of you big bags of cryptocurrencies!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

Tandem Diabetes Is Worth Keeping An Eye On

December 15, 2019 Published by rollandthomas

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and commercializes various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States.

Diabetes is a chronic disease that occurs either when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin or when the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces. Insulin is a hormone that regulates blood sugar. Hyperglycaemia, or raised blood sugar, is a common effect of uncontrolled diabetes and over time leads to serious damage to many of the body’s systems, especially the nerves and blood vessels

More than 100 million U.S. adults are now living with diabetes or prediabetes, according to a new report released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The report finds that as of 2015, 30.3 million Americans – 9.4 percent of the U.S. population –have diabetes. Another 84.1 million have prediabetes, a condition that if not treated often leads to type 2 diabetes within five years.

Source

The company’s flagship product is the t:slim X2 insulin delivery system that comprises t:slim X2 pump, its 300-unit disposable insulin cartridge, and an infusion set. It also provides t:slim X2 Insulin Delivery System with Basal-IQ Technology; t:slim X2 with G5 Integration; and Tandem Device Updater that allows users to update their pump’s software

Tandem’s t:slim X2 is the smallest durable insulin pump on the market at present and is the only pump in the US market that offers remote software updates. Also, the insulin pump integrates with Dexcom’s G6 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, is the first automated insulin-delivery system approved for use in children as young as six years old.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) also sells disposable products that are used together with pumps and are replaced every few days.These disposable products are great because they produce reoccurring revenue (think of the disposable razors for the Gillette razor blade…which I hate buying because I know they are overpriced).

Since 2012,Tandem has sold over 72,000 pumps in the US, but 63,000 pumps have been sold in the last four years. In addition, Tandem is also going international to capture opportunities after Johnson & Johnson’s exit from the insulin pump market. This is good because Tandem has penetrated less than 1% of the total addressable diabetes market worldwide.

In recent weeks, Tandem attained Health Canada approval for the t:slim X2 insulin pump with Basal-IQ technology. This approval is expected to accelerate Tandem Diabetes’ global pump shipments and expand its customer base.

But just the other day, Tandem got better news.

Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) nabbed Food and Drug Administration clearance for a new diabetes management system Friday — prodding TNDM stock to pop midday.

The FDA cleared a diabetes management system dubbed Control-IQ to work with Tandem’s insulin pump, dubbed t:slim X2. The closed loop system works with Dexcom’s (DXCM) continuous glucose monitor. The devices automatically adjust insulin to prevent high and low blood sugar.

With the clearance, the FDA also created a new category for interoperable medical devices, known as an automated insulin dosing system. This diabetes management system has the potential to rival devices from Medtronic (MDT).

Source

The potential to take on Medtronic is a big deal as Medtronic is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. One should keep Tandem on their radar screen and the levels to pay attention to are the weekly zones near $80 and near $45.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 59

December 15, 2019 Published by timm

Overall, the charts look set in their bearish ways. A Christmas rally seems increasingly unlikely. Thankfully, there are plenty of other areas worth focusing on from central banks announcing plans to roll out their own versions of crypto to China’s daily expansion into blockchain. This week’s recap focuses, in particular, on the Chinese Communist Parties ‘plans’ for the cryptosphere.

Picks of the Week

This report on the current state of play of blockchain in China. This podcast wrapping up a 5 part series on the same topic and this article examining the CCP’s ’embrace of blockchain’ but evident antipathy towards Bitcoin.

Twitter

This BTC thing will never catch-on:
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950870939422720

A perspective on why BTC price lags apparent interest:
https://twitter.com/AdamPaulMoore/status/1201561011750408192

BTC halving likely to lead to a price rise?:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1201983119387217925

Over a thousand companies in Hainan province alone are in
some way engaged with blockchain:
https://twitter.com/mg0314a/status/1202150448074903553

On EOS achievements to date:
https://twitter.com/EOS_Nation/status/1203437924538298368

China’s embrace of blockchain is neither benign or destined to succeed:
https://twitter.com/aantonop/status/1203829157681094658

Peer to peer cash – why its hard to achieve ad why it matters (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/MiguelCuneta/status/1202877557370044417

Gold and yields showing remarkable divergence:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1205272294542602240

Articles

BTC is not failing:
https://medium.com/swlh/why-bitcoin-is-not-failing-39e10eef1be1

Is BTC really deflationary?:
https://medium.com/@Conner_/stop-calling-bitcoin-deflationary-84462cb90345

China ‘loves’ blockchain but ‘dislikes’ BTC – so why is that? (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/blockchain-is-the-censored-word-for

BTC halving impact will have minimal market effect:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/youngjoseph/2019/12/03/prominent-investor-says-halving-wont-have-a-big-impact-on-bitcoin-price-heres-why/#6a98620b777b

Is BTC in its ‘chasm phase’? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoins-success-in-the-future-will-depend-how-it-emerges-from-the-chasm-phase-c6b726541399

The complex reality of Altcoin tokenomics (recommended):
https://medium.com/@leo.vigna/chainlink-to-infinity-link-to-zero-the-risks-of-token-abstraction-640fbd97a9b7

A report on one of the first EOS blockchain games (recommended):
https://medium.com/crypto-sword-magic/game-economy-report-bac24c42c9e7

Excellent overview of the current state of the blockchain industry in China (leads to a link to download the report – highly recommended):
https://forkast.news/china-blockchain-report/

HEX is a clever scam but a scam nonetheless:
https://medium.com/@TooWumboToFail/under-a-hex-396847b86e57

Podcast

Deciphering China’s role in blockchain – Part 5 of 5 (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

YouTube

A good overview of possible trends for crypto 2020:

BTC’s ROI is decreasing each cycle but still impressive:

Anton Antonopoulos on EOS (highly recommended):

REX is back up and running + a little context on DAPP costs (recommended):

Colin shares his views on a wide range of crypto topics:

Infographics

Whose buying BTC (on Localbitcoins):

https://twitter.com/ProofOfSteve/status/1201411289701965829

A useful visual guide to the main forks BTC soft/hard over the years:

https://i.redd.it/1pvmr98w5x041.png

It’s been a heck of a run for equities:

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1202414250276184064/photo/1

Website / Utility

Useful website for researching DeFi projects:

https://defipulse.com/defi-list

Lots to take-in. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Taiwan Semiconductor…Another Derivative Play On Apple

December 13, 2019 Published by rollandthomas

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing, and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. The company manufactures masks and electronic spare parts; researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, packages, and tests color filters; and offers customer and engineering support services.

(TSM) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors. TSM has been involved with chip design since the 1980s and today produces chips for some of the largest clients in the world.

One such company is Apple. TMS produces chips for Apple and gets 20% of its sales from Apple.

Two months ago Apple reportedly boosted component orders for the iPhone 11. In particular, Apple bumped up orders for the $699 iPhone 11 and the $999 iPhone 11 Pro. Some analysts are thinking Apple can sell up to 185 million iPhone 11s. In addition, according to one analyst, Apple AirPods are seeing a surge of demand and could face holiday shortage.

Are you connecting the dots yet?

Apple (AAPL) iPhone chip supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) saw healthy sales growth in November thanks to strong demand for smartphone processors. Taiwan Semiconductor stock spiked to a record high on the news Thursday.

Taiwan Semi reported revenue of $3.54 billion in November. Sales rose 1.7% from the previous month and popped 9.7% year over year in local currency.

“We think this is largely due to smartphones (seasonal ramp) along with a recovery in data center chips,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mitch Steves said in a report to clients

Source

The chart suggests to look for a pull back to go long near the $52 level.

Another derivative play on Apple is Qualcomm. Qualcomm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and markets digital communication products worldwide and the company happens to be right in the center of 5G.

Qualcomm just announced their Snapdragon 865 5G chip which is capable of processing 2 gigapixels per second while delivering speeds of up to 7.5Gbps 5G connectivity.

Apple has plans on selling four new iPhones next year that could all be compatible with ultra-fast 5G wireless networks.

The chart suggests Qualcomm will continue to move higher to at least the $100 level.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

December 13, 2019 Published by timm

Please click the link below to listen to the 66th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-rei4e-cb291b

Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode wraps up the China Blockchain Series by examining the risk-reward investment scenarios now on offer.

Despite the undeniable importance of the Chinese Communist Parties’ enthusiasm for blockchain it, in fact, offers very little long-term upside for the typical investor.

A caveat -if you happen to be a mainland Chinese investor with ties to the government – then the future is very bright indeed. For the rest – not so much. There are many hundreds of blockchain projects currently underway in China – over 100 in Hainan province alone. How many of these are likely to accrue long-term value? Very few indeed – even in the most permissive and supportive environment the majority of start-ups fail. As 2017’s ICO phase clearly demonstrated the failure rate for crypto-related endeavours is even higher than that for other tech-related projects. Add to this the immense difficulty of accessing reliable information on China-based projects. A typical western investor simply has no idea what is ‘true’ when it comes to local chains. Twitter personalities and thirdhand reports make terrible investment advisors. Finally, throw an authoritarian regime into the mix. A government that can and will do as it pleases – anointing winners and dooming all others and the futility of picking Chinese crypto winners should be readily apparent.

Nonetheless, a tangible investment opportunity does exist here but it lies with projects that benefit by comparison with state-sanctioned chains. Bitcoin is an obvious example. Over the next few years, the reality of blockchain as a tool of state control and coercion will likely serve to highlight the liberating benefits of truly decentralized systems. Wall Street may care not a whit for liberty but they certainly embrace opportunity and decentralized financial instruments fit the bill perfectly.

Another though much difficult to identify opportunity lies with chains that successfully master interoperability – allowing them to do business across borders while remaining complaint with varying legal requirements. Such projects may or may not be decentralized but facilitating access to markets should bring value to those chains that achieve this at scale. Nuls, Chainlink, Polkadot, and Quant are some of the current leaders in this area though it’s far from clear whether any of them will gain meaningful traction over the coming years.

Finally, there are potential swing trade opportunities in the short term. Tokens with reasonable liquidity such as NEO and ONT may offer substantial upside as China moves to implement blockchain more broadly. This process may temporarily lift all boats as it were. However, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that well-established chains like NEO and Ontology will be adopted. From a risk/reward perspective, a targeted exit point in under a year seems optimal. Wait too long and you could see the entire position collapse overnight. Swing trading, however, is much more suited to folks who are already experienced day traders and therefore not a viable option for most retail investors who are exceedingly likely to move the goalposts once actually in a position.

In summary – China matters. The next few years will see it take centre stage as the CCP rolls out its version of crypto. Many will declare that the Beijing model is the only viable at-scale implementation of blockchain. They will be entirely wrong but it may take years for that to become clear. Over a long enough horizon – the centralized, state-supervised model of crypto embodied by China and a soon to follow slew of authoritarian regimes will end up being a profound catalyst for the widespread adoption of decentralized chains – and here is where the true investment potential lies.

Thanks for listening.

Series Links

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 4 of 5

Can Bill Ackman Do It Again With Agilent???

December 11, 2019 Published by rollandthomas

Trading is nothing but a numbers game…you hope your loses are smaller and hope your winners are much larger than your loses. Take the billionaire, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square. The hedge fund’s returns fell 4% in 2017, dropped 13.5% in 2016 and declined 20.5% in 2015, but lets look at some of his recent winners.

A year ago, billionaire, Bill took a $1 billion size position in home improvement Lowe’s because he thought there were opportunities to improve its supply chain to serve customers better and enhance the customer experience through strategic brands and differentiated in-store experiences. I personally thought Bill was going to take another lost, but boy was I wrong. Bill got in the stock in May of 2018 and thus far that $1 billion is now worth $1.3 billion, a nice paper profit of $300 million thus far.

But Bill’s bigger win was in Chipotle. Back in 2016, Bill’s Pershing Square bought almost 10% of the shares. Bill thought Chipotle had a strong brand, differentiated offering, enormous growth opportunity, and was undervalued.

The following year Chipotle hired a new CEO, Brian Niccol. At Taco Bell, Niccol was known for food menu innovation as well as driving technological advancements to the customer ordering process. Under Brian’s leadership, digital sales quickly grew as Brian had hoped is that more and more customers will skip other eateries and just order their food at Chipotle. And then a year later, Brian introduced a loyalty program.

And look what the stock has done since 2016….WOW.

And Chipotle is the gift that keeps on giving as Chipotle made up of 14% of Bill’s hedge fund returns of through mid-2019.

In the most recent news, Bill bought 2.9 million shares in Agilent Technologies on Monday. Agilent provides application focused solutions to the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets worldwide. Essentially Agilent is a lab testing equipment maker.

Billionaire investor William Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management said Monday it bought shares in testing equipment company Agilent Technologies Inc, only its second new investment this year as the fund has reported a 51% return.

Agilent Technologies’ stock price jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after Ackman’s investment was made public in a regulatory filing. Ackman’s $7 billion fund earlier in the year bought Berkshire Hathaway Inc shares.

The filing did not say whether the Agilent investment will be active or passive, and Ackman’s spokesman declined to comment. The filing showed that Pershing Square owned 2.9 million shares at the end of September and did not say how big the position is currently. At Monday’s stock price, that stake would be worth $246 million.

Source

The fact that Bill and Warren Buffett own Agilent, something must be up. I really like the monthly demand near $60, but something tells me price isn’t going to get there anytime soon.

But there is also a great level at the weekly demand at $70 to go long as well.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

It’s a Good Day!

December 11, 2019 Published by bitbrain

Today is a good day. I’m looking forward to its outcome.

My fight against governments is unending, a daily burden, but one which I undertake willingly.

I pride myself in fighting governments on every front that I possibly can: it doesn’t matter which level of government or even which country’s government I fight. As long as
I am making it hard for tyrants to be tyrants, then I am doing something right.

Today is a good day because, God willing, tonight I will get to confront a government official face to face. Tyrants being what they are, such opportunities are rare. “Democracy”
is only a word, a word which Representative Democracies have become the antithesis of.

I’m not naive, I know that I can’t change a politician. I can’t change a politician, but I may be able to help change politics! I will be in a room of influential people: voters, business elite, political party funders, and I fully intend to make best use of this opportunity to open their eyes.

The groundswell against politics in general is growing large, noticeable large – but that groundswell is generally confined to the lower levels. Richer citizens tend to ignore it,
they have more capacity to absorb tyranny – it doesn’t hurt them much and I doubt that they even notice it much of the time. Tonight I will do my best to enlighten the rich, and I will do this by backing the government
official into a corner, forcing them to expose their lies, greed and alternative agendas.

At least, I’ll make my best efforts to do so.

The rich have much to fear. While the average millionaire is not complicit in the day-to-day tyranny that representative democracies now are, WHEN the torches and pitchforks come out, there is no telling how far down they will go in their quest for vengeance and retribution. The average millionaires would thus do well to
enlighten themselves a little and to sympathise with the plight of those poorer then themselves. When business heavyweights start to pressure political parties and hold them accountable, that can have an immediate positive
effect on communities. No political party wants to deal with the bad press of a large company actively and publicly opposing them. If there is one thing a politician really despises, then it is the truth coming out of the
mouth of a well-known and crespected source.

And so the process continues: continually trying to open the eyes of those who have yet to see, or perhaps don’t want to see.

I’m tired of this fight, I’m really REALLY tired of it. It is a reality that I live 24/7/365, and one which I take seriously. The burden of constantly opposing corrupt governments is rather draining, because there is just so much damn evil to oppose!
I know that my many posts, blogs, emails, discussions etc often go completely ignored – but there is method to my madness.

I saw that earlier this week.

I tend to get a little shunned; not in the nasty “ostracised by the community” kind of way, but more in the “try to avoid him him, he’ll just berate you for voting
and tell you yet again why fiat money is evil” kind of way. People would rather not be around me, because “light conversation” with me tends to become rather heavy, and I won’t let them walk away without
the added burden of what they could be doing to help bring about change.

BUT

I’m right – and they know it.

There is a saying, something along the lines of “Nobody loves a warrior until the enemy is at the gate”. I am such a warrior, in more ways than one, and I wear that lack of love as a badge of pride.

And so it happens, that when the proverbial brown stuff hits the fan, suddenly I find myself to be popular again. That is what happened earlier this week.

Government (in my country) made such a large and obvious mess up, that the usually complacent sheep were temporarily jolted out of their rose-tinted slumber, and they took to social media
en masse to express their disapproval.

The words they used were heart-warming – because I saw them repeating words that I so often speak. You see, when you carry on and on and on until people are sick of you, something
you say sticks in their brains. Deep down they get the nagging feeling that all is not well. When circumstances eventually do become undeniably nasty, a little trigger fires in the back of their minds and they remember your
words.

I have made the most of this opportunity. I did not to welcome the newly awakened with open arms, but rather to chastise them for their regular conduct and to warn them against doing so
again in the future. I’m driving the lesson home. Next time around it they will react quicker and with more conviction…

It doesn’t take a lot of people to oust a tyrannical system of government, but it does take more than we have available at the moment. The longer the sheep keep their heads down and
try to ignore issues, the longer we will all suffer.

It is with that in mind that I go with a smile on my face to tonight’s meeting. I know that the politician stands no chance against me. True, it’s only a big fish in a small
pond, but this particular pond is a relatively large and significant one – the ramifications of losing control of it could have a major ripple
effect for a certain political party and even for my country as a whole. So I will be giving it my all. Wishes of good luck and prayers (irrespective of faith or denomination) are most welcome.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is coming. I absolutely believe in the power of decentralised cryptocurrencies and the revolutionary disruptive effect that they are capable of having on international finance. I
absolutely believe that governments can be starved of funding and can be rendered obsolete by blockchains; both in a financial and in an administrative role.

But Bitcoin is going to take time. The upcoming global stock market crash is not going to automatically result in cryptocurrencies replacing fiat currencies overnight. Sure, it will give
crypto an enormous boost, but this is not the crash that will spell the end of fiat forever, it will only be the beginning of the end.

It is still up to us to fight wherever we can: to fight for what is right – not legal. To fight for true patriotism – not the words and symbols created by politicians. To fight for liberty
and free will, not disguised socialism and “democracies” that aren’t democratic.

The battle is hard and the end is nowhere in sight. But if you and I don’t fight it, who will?