MTL seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe that the current structure has formed a bullish pennant and the major figure shows an inverted SHS, a reversal pattern of trend, in the chart above I have indicated the pennant through the diagonals in light blue, while the diagonals of trend and horizontal supports are in dark blue, previously the price made an upward journey recovering the support located at 0.000035 and consolidate above that level, it would be expected that the price continues its upward path, currently the candles are testing the diagonal of the bearish wedge within the pennant, if we fail to make the break in the current situation, we could expect a reversal to the diagonal greater, approximately within the price range of 348 – 358, to then have a pullback to break the resistance of the figure and reach our pennant target, which is at 485, I have also pointed out in the chart above the SHS target, which is higher located at 629.
MTL seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of the candles, we can observe how it has tested the resistance of the descending wedge, within the circles I have pointed out the important points that we should always take into account in a trend, the third circle has not yet been completed, so I mentioned earlier that we could see a reversal to the diagonal that would end the down cycle and look for the break.
In conclusion, MTL has a good enough chart to trade, the major figures are bullish, the price has recovered an important level, located above the previous LL, the neck line I have indicated in the chart with purple color, in the short term we could see fulfilled the objective of the pennant, found resistance in the neck line, so we should see another accumulation to go for the objective of the SHS achieving the breakage of the neck line first. I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 4H and the closing in 1D, also always be attentive to the movement of BTC, since any strong movement can affect the market of the alts.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.
For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:
During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI
Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:
…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:
The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….
… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:
We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:
The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…
If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…
…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
The market remains lacklustre, but relatively predictable. I’ve had more success with recent BTC price predictions than what I normally have – which gives me added confidence in my current buying strategy. This post explains that strategy.
It’s no secret that I have had BTC buy orders in the $8000s for a good few weeks now, if not months. I constantly check the charts and update my TA in order to ensure that my buy orders remain valid. At the moment, I am happy that they are set at the right prices. I will now explain why:
Firstly, take note that I have done away with my regular diagonal Fib levels for the time being. As the bullish price action drew to a close, so those levels started to lose their relevance. The nature of the current market correction is such that diagonal Fib levels no longer a reliable means of price prediction. Obviously this will change at a later date, but for now I find no value in using them.
I predicted a BTC reversal of fortunes and a price drop over the weekend (on Twitter and in the TIMM Trading Pits). That price reversal/drop occurred late on Friday.
Calling the price turnaround was not hard, the TA was pretty clear. What is still unclear for now, is whether BTC is in a bearish converging triangle or a negative channel. Fortunately this doesn’t matter much – as the outcomes of the two are fairly similar – at least for investors.
Below we can clearly see how BTC respected the top of the channel/triangle and became negative – a trend which should now continue for the remainder of the working week, possibly longer.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
It could be that the top of my channel/triangle is not correct (because I have excluded short-term outlier candles), but thanks to the latest data, it looks as if making the top of such a channel/triangle less steep does not tie in with the observed price movement data. The upper limiting line which I have created ties in nicely with the bottom of the channel, i.e. it runs parallel to it, giving credence to my theory that what looks like a triangle may still be a channel.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Channel or not, we are seeing support at $9500 – giving credence to my theory that BTC may be in a triangle despite looking as if it is in a channel. Looking at the bigger picture, I see no reason why BTC can’t be in a triangle within a channel – which I now believe is actually the most likely state of affairs.
Upon reaching support at $9500, I believe there is a good chance that support will not hold (as indicated on the chart below). Perhaps I’m wrong and it will hold. Perhaps BTC will bounce back up to the top of the triangle, before turning negative again. Much like I said in my post a week ago, other indicators such as trading volume and various momentum indicators show that a positive breakout for BTC is very unlikely at this stage. What this means is: if BTC does not break downwards through the bottom of the triangle this time, then it will probably do so the next time it tests the $9500 support level.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Looking at the chart above in more detail, we can see a historical support level exists between roughly $8100 and $7500. Provided that BTC price does break lower, I expect this support level to arrest the drop in price. Should it fail to do so, then price should stop dropping when it reaches the bottom of the channel – roughly at $7000 (that price changes over time due to the downwards slope of the channel).
So where should an investor look for a buy point?
Bit Brain’s BTC Buying Tactics
There is a risk that BTC hits the bottom of the triangle, and then bounces back upwards, never to return so low again. Chances of this happening are slight, but not negligible. For this reason it may be a good idea to buy at the turnaround point of $9500. I am making $9500 an “Optional Buy Point’ for myself.
If BTC price decline slows significantly as it approaches $9500, I will assume that it does not have the momentum to break through, and will set a buy order just North of $9500 to avoid missing out on the dip. This will not be a big order – perhaps about 20% of my allocated funds – because there is still a fair chance that price will drop lower later on.
However, if BTC approaches $9500 at speed, chances are that it will shatter the support there. In such a scenario I will not buy at $9500, instead I will wait to buy in the $8000s, as I have been for the last couple of months. Since there are no other meaningful support levels in the area, I will not buy in the low $9000s. If BTC does break downwards through $9500, it should hit the $8000s – which is where I will start buying (as indicated on the chart below).
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“Buy Zone 1” is my main buying zone, it lies between $9000 and $8100. I plan to spend 60% of my allocated BTC buying funds there – with the option of spending more if it looks like BTC won’t go any lower than $8000. I have buy orders at around $8900, $8500 and $8200 – these vary as my local currency fluctuates against the dollar, so I have to adjust them from time to time. At $8100 we once again encounter historical support – so that is where I stop buying.
Should BTC break through that support, I will be ready to pick it up at prices of between $7400 and $7000. This is “Buy Zone 2”. $7000 is the bottom of the channel (at least for now). If BTC fails to reach Buy Zone 2, then I will spend all of my BTC buying funds as the price moves back upwards through “Buy Zone 1”.
I do not see a scenario where BTC will drop below $7000. Firstly, because $7000 is the bottom of the channel, but secondly (and probably more importantly), because BTC can’t drop below $7000 without breaking through the Long-term Base Trendline. (as seen below).
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
The Long-Term Base Trendline is four years old and well established. It is highly unlikely that BTC can remain below the level of this trendline for very long. As a side note: I believe this trendline to be a measure of BTC adoption as well as the baseline from which any rally is launched. Interestingly, if I’m right about that, it means that reaching the trendline indicates that there is no hype in the market at that time.
If BTC does break though the long-term trendline, it will become incredibly unstable and likely to bounce back fast and hard. It also means that I will be willing to place even more money into it – money I will rob from my normal fiat money savings accounts. Obviously this is risky and not something I would recommend for most people. I’m telling you what I will do under such circumstances, not what you should do.
This unlikely buying opportunity is labelled “Unlikely Buy Zone” on the chart below.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
That rounds up my latest weekly look at BTC. As for the rest of the market: altcoins remain in decline – providing excellent buying opportunities for shrewd investors who are willing to do their homework. In the bigger picture, I watched in amazement late last week at how money floods out of stores of value and back into the fiat-based markets on the slightest little whiff of optimism wrt US/China trade talks. They’re not even building a house of cards anymore, they’re building a house of rice paper. And it’s starting to rain…
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
In this report I will look how my analysis worked for the month of July 2019. There were 31 contests in July. I have already paid out / upvoted all of them. The analysis was correct six times, wrong 11 times and the cryptocurrency was in a range 14 times.
In Elliott Wave terms, CoinMeet began a wave one advance on June 27. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 20, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 4. If this wave count is correct, CoinMeet should be heading next towards the August 20 peak in the red wave three.
Down, up, down – trading in a range – you get the picture. The cryptosphere itself has fortunately proven much more interesting than the price action. Lots going on and more than enough competing narratives to chew on. Twitter was on fire – included are only a fraction of the interesting discussions/observations of the last week or so.
Once again, I learned a lot this last week down the crypto rabbit hole. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
THETA seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the structure of candles has formed the figure of a symmetrical triangle, the minima are being higher and higher while the maxima are being lower and lower, in simple terms this means that the buying force is increasing compared to the selling force, which in most cases, this ends up breaking the bullish figure.
The current candle is finding demand in the support located at 0.10790, it does not seem to be a very strong support, so the price could fall to the support diagonally forming a third touch that would be a great signal to buy, for the price to continue rising will have to recover the support mentioned above in case the price falls, in the chart I have indicated our first target located at 0.15072.
In conclusion, THETA presents a good figure to offer us gains in the short or medium term, a third test in the major support and the price could come up in search of the break, however, we must be very attentive to the implications that have the sudden movements of BTC, which affect the whole market, if the price of THET fails to hold the support, the price would come down to the first zone of demand located at 0.09210, where the price could find a recovery pullback and continue to rise, otherwise, our second demand zone is located at 0.07888, this zone represents the minimum historical THETA binance, so it should be an important buying zone.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
Central banks have delivered 32 interest-rate cuts globally this year as a worsening U.S.-China trade war drags down global economic growth. Swap markets suggest we’re not even at the halfway mark for cuts yet.
Traders are expecting much more. Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more rate cuts, assuming central banks maintain their current trajectories in easing. Those cuts could total another 16% in global reductions.
And when it comes to the US, the Equity and Bond markets have already priced in further rate cuts. The Fed’s target rate range is between 2% and 2.25% after a cut of 25 basis points in July. If Fed Powell doesn’t continue to cut rates, many on Wall Street (and Trump) are saying the Feds will cause the next recession. A big part of this thesis is when the Feds raised rates four times in 2018 with the last one causing that massive sell-off in December (Merry Christmas).
The US Feds are in a tough spot because the US economy is actually still growing…just at a slower pace. The economy expanded by 2% in the second quarter and consumer confidence is still near all-time highs. Based on the historical correlation between the stock market and consumer confidence once the index hits 100, consumer confidence may be about to dip, which could hit the retail space hard and evidently the stock market.
But what’s going on around the world can’t be ignored, the global economy is slowing down. And probably more important, the invert yield curve can’t be ignored either because it’s only predicted the last 5 or 6 recessions.
And so, from a fundamental standpoint, based on the continued rate cuts around the world, I expect the 10 yr bond to continue to move higher over time. However, from a technical standpoint, price is currently in a monthly supply zone. The chart suggests price will pull back, before moving higher.
On the daily chart, price should at least stall at these levels, if not react and move higher.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, Dragon Coins began a wave one advance on August 19. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 30, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 5. If this wave count is correct, Dragon Coins should be heading next towards the August 30 peak in the red wave three.
In Elliott Wave terms, 12Ships began a wave one advance on August 23. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 23, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction could have ended today. If this wave count is correct, 12Ships should be heading next towards the August 23 peak in the red wave three.
