Twitter Data Shows Major Increase in Gaming Engagement on Platform

Twitter
Data Shows Major Increase in Gaming Engagement on Platform (HollywoodReporter)

  • According to Twitter, more than 500m gaming-related tweets were sent in H1 2019, a 20% increase yoy. In 2018, gaming topics topped 1bn tweets for the first time.
  • While the US seems to be tweeting the most about gaming, Japan hastaken the top spot in the past year as the topic is becoming more global.
  • Following last week’s mass shootings and President Trump’s condemning remarks about video games, several supportive hashtags such as #VideoGamesAreNottoBlame and #GamersAreGood started trending on the platform.

Analysis and Comments

  • Given the recent series of high-profile gaming-related news (the political debate, but also a number of milestones and records achieved across esports events such as the Fortnite and Dota 2 World Championships), the uptick in tweets does not seem surprising.
  • In a way, it is yet another sign that playing video gaming and watching esports is becoming more socially accepted/”mainstream”.
  • With the steady increase in esports viewership numbers and the continued strong demand for video games, we expect this trend to continue.
  • On a side note, Chinese video gaming giant Tencent and Chinese livestreaming platform Huya reported Q2 figures this week, both showing continued growth in mobile revenues and mobile users, respectively.

HUYA’s Share Price (USD)

At what stage does it become Stupid to Buy Too Much Bitcoin?

 

This is a question which I am asking myself with increasing frequency, especially since the start of Q3 2019.

When I first started investing in crypto, I thought that I knew the answer: more than about 2% of your portfolio value in crypto is a bad idea.

I have been an adherent of the ” invest 1% of your net worth in crypto” principle. It makes sense: you’re putting in an affordable amount, an amount that you can lose without significantly disadvantaging your life, and an amount that is enough to significantly grow your wealth if BTC really takes off.

But now I am doubting that logic.

Reality has been hitting uncomfortably close to home this month. My portfolio value is growing, but only in my local currency.

I like a diverse portfolio, and mine is fairly diverse, but still rather traditional in construction. Over 50% of my investments are still sitting in an array of high-yield local fiat vehicles. 20 years ago this would have been a recipe for success – it’s most certainly how I was taught and what I was always advised to do. In fact, it’s still what financial advisers would recommend. The last time I consulted and invested through a finance professional was less than a year ago, and that’s still very much the tune that he was singing.

Perhaps because I am from Generation X it’s hard for me to think outside those terms. To me a cushion of growing fiat money still represents “safety”. I imagine that it’s possibly easier for younger people to think outside the traditional box in this regard, though the mainstream advice which they would be getting is probably much the same as what I get.

My crypto holdings have gained value this year (despite the bad altcoin market), my shares (which I streamlined mainly towards precious metals over the course of the last year) have done excellently and my physical precious metals holdings are finally waking up and making me money. Thanks to those, and some growth of my fiat, I have seen rapid growth of my wealth – but mainly in local terms. The sad truth is that with so much value in fiat, I am struggling to gain value in USD at all. As fast as I gain value in crypto and metals, my fiat depreciates against the dollar, and because I have most of my wealth in fiat, even a small depreciation costs me a lot.

I’ve grown my wealth by 20% in the last 6 months – in local currency, but only by 10% in USD. I know that sounds good (hell, most pro investors would kill for that), but I’m not happy with it, and here’s why:

Sitting with so much fiat I am very exposed to market fluctuations based on the political and economic situation of my home country and of the world in general. Two weeks ago my 10% USD gain was a 15% gain. I lost about 5% of my entire portfolio value (in USD) within two weeks – DESPITE climbs in crypto and precious metals. That’s a scary reminder of just how fast my portfolio can devalue. It also shows how the more volatile assets like crypto are not alone in their power to rapidly eat into the value of your portfolio when they turn bearish.

There is another consideration: The general trend of precious metals prices is an upwards one: they increase in value against USD. The general trend of my local currency is the exact opposite. Normally this doesn’t matter too much, as the interest I can gain on fiat holdings negates their devaluation and still makes me a small profit, but this is no longer the case.

At this stage you may wonder: “why not just transfer your fiat holdings into USD then?” Well, it’s inconvenient and a little costly to do so. I still need fiat for my daily transactions, so I still need a local fiat buffer. But the real reason is that USD doesn’t look healthy in the long-term either.

As many of us have been predicting for some time now, the economic house of cards that the world is built upon has become exceptionally fragile. It’s precariously balanced on a base made up of a trade war, a weakening and splitting European economic bloc, negative interest rates, quantitative easing and lending rate cuts, spiralling national debt which dwarfs GDP, and derivatives, derivatives and more derivatives. Options, futures, funds, shorts – everything BUT the underlying assets. The financial world is dealing in so many assets with zero inherent value, that the underlying assets themselves no longer even feature! And they have the gall to criticise crypto for having “no inherent value”…  (which I can prove is false)

The collapse of fiat structures is looking uncomfortable close, closer and possibly more severe than I even had imagined. At this stage I doubt that this will be the end of fiat as we know it. Unfortunately, this is all happening a little too early for crypto to just step in and pick up the slack, crypto adoption has not yet reached that level of mainstream use and trust. This means that fiat will rise again and that it will probably only be after the following big crash that crypto picks up the slack.

However…

It’s not to say that that following big crash won’t happen soon after the one which is about to happen. It’s hardly been a decade since the last semi-decent sized market crash. With another one already on the cards, it is clear that the entire shaky system is just rebuilding itself on its former ruins each time – thereby creating an increasingly shaky base – and consequently guaranteeing that each successive crash will not be too far off. In addition to this, each crash of fiat, its related markets and its plethora of derivative assets is another boost for cryptocurrencies.

Even mainstream investors can now see that Bitcoin is fast becoming a replacement for Gold, or at least an alternative to it. This is not to say that Bitcoin won’t dip in price when markets crash, but like most BTC dips, that will be a temporary one – a desperate rush out of stored value in order to try to prop up the failing fiat-based assets. It’s ludicrously stupid and doomed to fail, but it happens; just take a look at what happened to the prices of precious metals in 2008: Gold lost 30% of its value, Silver lost 60%, Platinum lost 67%. Admittedly most bounced back within a year – faster and harder than the stock markets did.

Don’t get me wrong, I still support investing in Gold (and other precious metals). My macroeconomic opinion of the 2008 crash was that it was more a correction than a crash. The problem with such a correction is that it delays the inevitable: the BIG crash will still happen – only now it’s going to be even more severe when it does. As I said earlier, I don’t know if what we’re seeing now is the start of such a crash, or perhaps just another mini-crash/correction.

Either way, I’m scared to still have so much money sitting in fiat. It’s only a matter of time before the American markets give that one big sneeze – the one from which all other markets will catch a cold – or perhaps a disease far more serious. Looking at my portfolio now, I can’t help but think that the assets which are generally seen as “risky” today, are probably more “safe”. For crypto this is still tricky to say: as much as I love crypto, I’m hesitant to throw more than the recommended 1% into it, 2% maximum. Thanks to the growth of crypto, I’m already way past that mark, I’m now well into the 20% territory. Is that too much, or is it not enough?

Precious metals are a little easier, especially Gold. The chance of Gold losing its millennia old store-of-value status is practically zero. For this reason I will probably increase my holdings in precious metals and decrease those in fiat. Simultaneously I will look to increase my crypto holdings by a similar amount. Yes, crypto remains risky, but is it really riskier than fiat?

In a world of inflationary assets, only those with finite supply can be considered consistent long-term stores of value. I’m not a trader, so I’m not after short-term gains or volatile markets, I’m after long-term growth. For now it looks as if precious metals and crypto offer me the best chances of that; not only good returns, but also relative safety compared to fiat – as unconventional as that may sound and as contrary as it may be to my education in such matters.

At this stage it’s worth asking the question: “What about property?” I think that’s a valid question, but I don’t believe that it is the answer to my dilemma. In times of plenty (as we have enjoyed for the last decade), property is one of the things which balloons in value. I watched the price of my own home race upwards pre-2008, then I watched the market pop and the value of my house stagnated for about a decade. Only in the last two or three years has it suddenly climbed again. Remember that the 2008 crash is largely blamed on factors including the unsustainable property price bubble. Already I can see that property prices are suffering in my area. Houses which are for sale just don’t sell, sellers are slashing prices by large two-digit percentages. Rental properties stand open as people rather downgrade their lifestyles than pay such exorbitant prices. The housing market is in trouble – itself an indication that the next crash is already actually underway.

Property IS limited. There will always be demand for it, thanks to a growing human population. BUT it is overvalued, and a price crash will probably be rather severe. It takes a long time for property prices to recover from a crash – people don’t emerge from a depression with a wad of cash to splurge on an expensive house. I would rather not be in property during such an event. For the nimble trader with cash at hand, a few great property deals should become available at the worst point of the crash – but that’s beyond the scope of this post.

So what now?

Truth be told, I was on the verge of shifting money out of fiat two weeks ago. Unfortunately for me, I was a few days too late. I watched helplessly as Bitcoin roared back into quintiple digits territory, Gold shot to new 6-year highs and my local currency dropped like a stone – all simultaneously of course.

This leaves me in the old catch-22 situation: buy high or wait for a dip that may never come?

To make things even worse, Bitcoin is riding a very non-committal path along the top of my diagonal Fib retracement levels. It’s giving no clear indication of whether it will drop again (as I hope it will), or it it will shoot off to a new 2019 high.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

 

 

Looking carefully at the market, I would say that exceptionally poor altcoin sentiment may well indicate that crypto sentiment as a whole is poor and that BTC should drop lower. Conversely, the global fiat fears could kick BTC higher and ignite a bull run at any time. I’m leaning slightly towards there being another dip. The little dashed line you see on the chart is an alert which I have set at $9350, my current buy price (subject to change). Whether we will reach that mark or not, I do not know. Perhaps BTC will reach it and drop far lower – in which case I will probably buy like a maniac. For now I consider my previous BTC post to still be valid – so I still think that I can get my BTC dip.

Once I do buy, whether low or high, I will probably convert a fair amount of my BTC into altcoins (diversified altcoins). I’m a firm believer in buying when there is blood in the streets. As a value investor, altcoins look like a great buying opportunity to me now, possibly the greatest buying opportunity I’ve ever seen. To hedge this bet I will probably leave about 50% of what I buy in BTC. BTC may not grow like the alts when things are going well, but it is the most secure and durable of the cryptocurrencies, and it will weather any further price drops better than what the altcoins will. With BTC dominance at over 68%, I can’t see altcoins getting left behind for much longer- hence I am keen to get money into them NOW! This CoinGecko “Top 100 coins” chart illustrates the extent of BTC dominance:

From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts

 

 

Where I come from we call that “unsustainable”. Sorry BTC maximalists – your coin is great – but so are many altcoins.

Similarly, when it comes to buying metals, I may look at alternatives to Gold. Like with BTC, I will put more into Gold than the other metals, but I almost certainly buy more of the higher ROI potential Silver and/or Platinum. Much of that also depends on how close to spot price I can get on each asset, and also on some local laws and regulations which affect precious metals trading, especially the taxation thereon.

Conclusion

As you can see, this most was mainly just me thinking out loud. I apologise if there is no specific actionable information and if it is more opinion than fact or hard analysis. Also, much of it is specific to my situation. However, I believe that parts of this post will pertain to most if not all of you, and that you should be asking yourselves similar questions and have similar concerns. I have no doubt that we shall still see large financial changes, call them “upsets” within our lifetimes. We will probably see a few such events. I believe that the scarce resources such as Bitcoin, Gold and property are good assets to hold for the long-term, depending greatly on local conditions and on when you buy them. It is now my immediate goal to increase my scarce asset holdings and decrease my fiat holdings as soon as I can. If a dip does not come soon, then I will be forced to start DCAing into such assets at higher prices.

The world has changed and fiat is no longer the safe asset it once was. The rate of this change is surprising even to me – a staunch anti-fiat campaigner. I am acting accordingly. I suggest you seek qualified advice in doing something along similar lines.

Yours in anything that isn’t fiat-based
Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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Rocket League is dropping lootboxes

Rocket
League is dropping lootboxes (VentureBeat)

  • Rocket League, a highly successful live-service video game (PC/console) debuted in 2015 is still very popular, ranking in the top 10 most played games on gaming distribution platform Steam.
  • Its developer, Psyonix, was recently acquired by Epic Games and is now dropping the lootbox-style crate system it used to generate revenues from its player base.
  • Psyonix has already shifted the main focus of its monetisation strategy over to premium progression passes (so-called Battle Passes), which have been very lucrative for Epic Games.

Analysis and Comments

  • Lootboxes and micro transactions have long been popular monetisation techniques in mobile games, but it is only more recently that the big-budget games from AAA studios have been introducing them as well.
  • The main reason we are highlighting this story is because it showcases the subsequent shift away from monetisation techniques based on randomized item rewards (in premium games), as they have received a lot of attention and criticism in the near past – and come with a looming regularity overhang.
  • Battle Passes, on the other hand, are a tried and proven method to generate revenue from a game’s player base (and importantly not hated by gamers, unlike the “surprise mechanics” of lootboxes).
  • There are many successful examples of companies using this technique (including Epic Games & Riot), with perhaps one of the best ones being Valve’s annual Battle Pass sale for the esports World Championship of its game Dota 2: the game’s prize pool is almost entirely crowdfunded via the Battle Passes, and while only 25% of the in-game sales actually go towards the prize pool, the total prize pool currently amounts to more than US$32m, with 18 days left until the crowdfunding ends.
  • Notably, the Battle Pass-funded prize pool has consistently broken its own record every year, with this year’s officially being the largest single-event prize pool in esports history.

Tencent’s Share price (majority shareholder of EPIC Games)

BITCOIN: As expected…

… BITCOIN is now testing the Upper Resistance line within the Bullish Flag.

And, as I wrote in this post a couple of days ago, there are two options, both of them positive:

OPTION 1:

Correction is done and we are in wave three of the continuation of the Uptrend.


OPTION 2:

Still one retest of the lower ground of the Bullish Flag would be expected on (e) around 8250 USD in order to end the II wave in violet, then, strong rebound upwards.


24 Hours Volume seems to support the breakage of the upper resistance and also the RSI on the Daily still show a healthy status since it is moving within the limits.

Trend is our friend so, wait to see next move and decide wisely.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

BITCOIN: could it be an enormous Bullish Flag?

5 consecutive days of green candles already, despite BITCOIN has not increase so much in volume , BTC has broken strongly the Falling Wedge and so, it is going upwards while trying to break another known resistance at 10800 USD right now:

What I can see here is an interesting Flag pattern in formation. Usually this pattern use to provide till 5 rebounds before breaking the upper resistance (a-b-c-d-e) but it is known that also can be broken on the 4th, so at (d).

This is my current scenario: If the upper resistance (red line) is broken powerfully on (d), it would mean that the correction and so the end of the wave II was already done at (c) around 9000 USD… If, by the contrary, BTC finds strong resistance at (d), it would be likely to have another test of the inclined support on (e), ending there the correction…

In a graphical manner, two options, both bullish, of course:

Option 1:


Option 2:

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Takeaway agrees to buy Just Eat in $10bn deal

Takeaway
agrees to buy Just Eat in $10bn deal (Reuters)

  • While Reuters reported this as a takeover, its more strictly a merger. And of course, as with all these deals, its just discussions, Takeaway.com has until 24th Aug to announce a firm offer or withdraw (Takeover panel rules).
  • Investors in Just Eat are likely to be offered 0.9744 Takeaway.com shares for each Just Eat share, implying a value of 731p or c. a 15% premium to the closing price on the previous Friday before the possible deal was announced. As a result, Just Eat shareholders would own just over 52% of the combined group.
  • The article highlights the apparent role of US activist investor Cat Rock, who is a holder of shares in both companies.
  • Some analysts have highlighted the lack of overlap between the two companies (the exception being Switzerland) as being a positive feature of the proposed deal.
  • Takeaway.com argues that online food ordering can be highly profitable – but only for the leading player in each market.

Analysis and comments

  • The competitive situation for the two companies is very different. Takeaway’s markets have a limited overlap with Uber & Deliveroo, whereas for Just Eat the situation is the exact opposite.
  • The cross border synergies between operators are limited, unless the target company is very inefficiently run.
  • This deal highlights some wider lessons for similar platform type markets. Yes, the potential end market is large (& growing rapidly). But, having a large (& fast growing) addressable market is not enough on its own to ensure profitability.
  • Its important to also look at the local delivery cost structure & the level of competition. On both counts the outlook for Just Eat looks challenging.
  • This is an aspect of many of the new emerging companies that investors seem to miss – yes the end market looks attractive, but even if there are barriers to entry, multiple players in the market can make it really tough to select a long term winner.
  • Furthermore, if the infrastructure or product is replicable – companies may sustain extended losses as they fight for market share, especially if your competitor has deep pockets.

BITCOIN: I would not…

…get long yet…

The Volume has not change since a few days, we are still moving around 16 Billion in the 24h Volume which is more or less the same we had yesterday and the week before so, it is very likely we have a Bull trap here…

Additionally, we have a Triple Top at 10100 USD which is bearish so…unless BTC crosses that resistance I would not bet for an spectacular bull run now…

In my opinion, if not temporary sideways, BTC would move in the direction of the lower support, searching the (e) point on which it should rebound strongly (around 8500 USD) because if not, the threat of having a very BEARISH Scenario would get a higher likelihood of occurrence.

As I said, it is better not to enter now and see what happens in the coming days… this is a moment of high uncertainty and risk…

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

How One Guy CRUSHED IT Trading Beyond Meat

Active trading is more than just reading charts.   Sentiment, news announcements and sometimes just simple logic can all play a part in making a trade, especially one that offers a big move.

That’s what Guy Gentile did trading Beyond Meat (BYND)

How One Guy Crushed It Trading Beyond Meat

Beyond meat is a meatless food company (think burgers, etc.).   They had an initial public offering back in late May and the stock had basically skyrocketed since.

The hype around the company and stock was a big part of that.  Kind of like anything “new” that gets the “this is the next big thing to boom” vibe throughout the masses.

Granted meatless food products isn’t new, but they have a burger that is apparently very good and used that fact to expand like crazy and then raise a ton of money to fund it.

Either way there were plenty of signs, that atleast in the near-term the stock was far ahead of itself.

Higher Valuation Than JetBlue and Coors?

As shared in @rollandthomas post has beyond meat seen its best days the value of beyond meat had blown past some rather larger companies that do way more business such as beer maker coors and airline operator jetblue.

I’m sure the meatless burger is good, but can they sell enough to generate more revenue than the two companies above?

The chart also gives us a nice indication that things may be a bit ahead of themselves…..

There is always a Catalyst

As you can see the stock ripped higher into earnings and gave us a nice doji candle meaning the buyers were not fully in control anymore.

Now it was just a matter of what happened at earnings.  Here is the thing though, the hype around the stock was so high that even an earning beat might mean a sell off.   Buy the rumor sell the news is a mantra for a reason.

Shorting with Leverage and Safety to Crush It

Mr. Gentile made a big play with the use of options (which is good cus it establishes your risk up front) by buying weekly put options heading into the earnings announcement.

If the stock goes down he has the right to buy the stock at those lower prices or he can just sell the put option for the higher valuation it has at that point.

With the stock trading around 230 on Friday he bought 230 strike prices down to the 215’s in 5 point increments, thousands of them.  If he was right he gets paid.  If he was wrong he loses only what he spent no more.

Well, he was right and the stock is down 30 plus point from Friday’s close.  Just booking the profits by closing out those put options is a homerun.

However, he leveled up (and did take on my risk) by selling a bunch of the 220 calls that expire this week.  Basically if the price of BYND closed below 220 this friday he will also keep all the premium collected from selling those calls.

Conviction Meets Size

There are times to make regular trades and times to load up.  He saw this as a time to load the truck up and get paid.  You won’t always be right, but to make real money actively investing you need to take the occasional big swing when all the signs line up.

Just be sure that if you are wrong it doesn’t knock you out of the game.  Never put yourself in a position where one trade can blow out your whole account.  Always live to trade another day.

You can read a detailed article about the trade including an interview with Mr. Gentile here:

Guy Gentile Made $4M In Beyond Meat, Sees 50% Downside By December

 

Bulls Trying to Hang On

Price is once again consolidating on top of the $9,400 support after a quick drop to $9,100. The larger ascending support line seems to have turned into resistance.

Screen Shot 2019-07-29 at 9.55.13 AM.png

In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may be heading next, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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The International 2019 raises largest prize pool in esports history

The
International 2019 raises largest prize pool in esports history (Esports
Insider)

  • Valve’s ‘The International 2019’ (TI19 – the world championship for its game Dota 2) has officially raised the largest single-event prize pool in esports history.
  • Currently, the total prize pool amounts to $30.4m, thereby surpassing the previously highest single-event prize pool of $30m (provided by Epic Games for its Fortnite Word Cup).
  • The tournament will be held in China for the first time in 2019, hosted by the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai from August 15th-25th.

Analysis and Comments

  • This is a significant development for a number of reasons:
  1. Dota’s ‘The International’ prize pool is almost entirely crowdfunded via an in-game sale of a so-called ‘Battle Pass’,
  2. only 25% of the in-game sales actually go towards the prize pool,
  3. there are still more than 30 days left before cowdfunding stops, and
  4. since the inception of crowdfunding the TI prize pool, the event has consistently broken its own record every year.
  • In summary, this is an all-time high in prize pool money for any esports event, showcasing both strong and growing support from the gaming community as well as from developers themselves: Last year, Epic Games announced it would support its Fortnite esports scene by providing a total of $100m for the 2018-2019 season, with the game’s World Cup featuring a $30m prize pool. This is the most any publisher has ever committed.
  • Esports serve a number of purposes, the main being extending the life of a game by encouraging and supporting an active gaming community. This is more important now than ever, as developers/publishers are moving away from the one-time up-front payment model towards in-game monetisation via downloadable content (DLCs) over the life of the game.