The Sunday Crypto Recap- Down the Rabbit Hole 50

Market indecision has been the hallmark of this week’s crypto volatility. Some Alts such as Link made significant moves but the sustainability of these price gains is entirely unproven. As usual, lots more than price discovery going on in this space.The Bitwise ETF was shot down as expected though the firmness of the rejection was perhaps a surprise. The IRS issued draconian tax guidance for US citizens and Bakkt trade volume picked up just a little bit.

Given that this is the 50th edition of this series it’s worth re-stating the goal it strives to achieve:

The purpose of this weekly series is to recap some of the interesting ideas and concepts across a wide range of disciplines which each and every week in crypto seems to throw up. This ‘learners paradise’ is a great space to explore but also asks a lot of those who delve into it.

Got a grasp on basic programming logic, how about Austrian economics, or quantum computing or precisely how hashing algorithms underpin blockchains? Taking a moment to reflect or recap on the recent concepts and ideas crossing the crypto landscape can be very beneficial whether you are a hardcore crypto enthusiast or just exploring a casual interest in the space.

It’s important to note that not every idea here reflects my own bias or opinion. If it’s here, it’s because it made me think.


Picks of the Week

This article on Bitcoin’s security. A forecast into 2020 and this irreverent discussion of BTC.


Twitter

As you can see there really isn’t any basis to pursue crypto:
https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1180256599203614722

Bitwise ETF doomed from the start?:
https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1182093405297549312

Stacking sats seems to work:
https://twitter.com/matt_odell/status/1182121647928684545

Here’s what interest on 10 BTC amounts to (risk, risk, risk):
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1136264342612140033

Binance needs to thread softly in China:
https://twitter.com/truthurtm/status/1182304264036601856

Nick Szabo on money/ evolution of the dollar (recommended);
https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1147723003716751360

EOS needs a well-tested backup plan:
https://twitter.com/ryaneos42/status/1181453142673592321

Sometimes, you just have to enjoy the pain:
https://twitter.com/MoonOverlord/status/1181201267214950402

Tether skepticism is probably a reasonable position:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1181571057662271488


Articles

An examination of Bitcoin security with particular reference to block subsidies – follow link to download full pdf. (highly recommended):
https://uncommoncore.co/research-paper-a-model-for-bitcoins-security-and-the-declining-block-subsidy/

Bitcoin as freedom:
https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoin-equals-freedom/

Crypto may benefit from these recent government actions:
https://beincrypto.com/4-recent-government-actions-which-are-bullish-for-bitcoin/

From crypto skeptic to convert:
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/confessions-of-a-reformed-crypto-doubter-20191006-p52y43

More on Mixicles from Chainlink (may turn out o be important):
https://blog.chain.link/breaking-down-mixicles-and-its-potential-to-unlock-enterprise-demand-for-defi-applications-on-public-blockchains/

Features of EOSIO 2:
https://eos.io/news/introducing-eosio-2/

Central bank ‘stimulus’ programmes have real consequences for average people (recommended):
https://mises.org/wire/central-bank-stimulus-really-huge-redistribution-scheme

Even mainstream media is beginning to highlight te high-risk nature of current financial policies:
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bankers-have-just-signed-off-on-policies-that-could-increase-risk-of-another-gfc-20191008-p52yl1.html


Podcast

Rough around the edges – lots of profanity and slow to start (skip to 11:35) but full of thought-provoking perspectives on Bitcoin (highly recommended):


https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/aleks-svetski-founder-amber-why-bitcoin-price-is-wrong/id1434060078?i=1000452270641


YouTube

Looking into 2020 (highly recommended):


Decoding crypto transactions (highly recommended for folks new to crypto):


Hashing Algorithms and security simply explained dates from 2013 and just as relevant now:


Deep dive into Quant – thorough interview:


Clear, level-headed explanation of negative interest rates and their potential drawbacks:


More on the continuing need for the FED to ‘adjust’ repo rates:


Infographic

Liquidity is king:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1181298109596520448/photo/1


Website / Utility

One of the key figures of the genesis of crypto – Nick Szabo – his work is a literal treasure trove on crypto, money, and economics (highly recommended):

https://archive.is/H8UGk


That’s a wrap. See you back down this wonderful crypto rabbit hole before you know it!


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Three weeks ago, I write a post titled,

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Roku remains one of the fastest growing leaders in video streaming technology. Roku has over 30 million active users, about 10% of U.S. TV viewers aged 18 to 34 are now on Roku and these users are consuming more than 9 billion hours on streaming content.

But wait, why is Roku down almost 40% since early Sept?

Apple announced it would be giving away a free year of its new Apple TV+ service to customers who purchase new Apple devices, Comcast Corp. said it will give out its Xfinity Flex streaming box for free to its Internet-only subscribers and Facebook Inc. launched its new Portal TV device.

Price is approaching the monthly demand at $95. The chart suggests to go long once price penetrates the monthly demand.

Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel.  If you know anything about Wall Street, then you have heard of hedge fund, Citadel.  The hedge fund manages close to $30 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.  

Image result for ken griffin

The guy is doing well for himself.  This past January, Ken bought a New York City apartment for $238 million.  But he felt he didn’t have enough space, so he also simultaneously purchased London mansion for $122 million.  Anyway back to the post as I got sidetracked by his wealth.  

A 13G filing or Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the 13D which must be filed by anyone who acquires ownership in a public company of more than 5% of the outstanding stock.  And according to a new 13G filing from hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors shows a new 5% stake in Roku Inc.

Macquarie upgraded Roku from Neutral to Outperform on Wednesday.  And on Friday RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Roku to an Outperform from Sector Perform, boosting his price target by $48 to $155.

I can’t say it enough, so I’m going to repeat what I said in a recent post.

Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. And simple put, they do the opposite of retail investors. For the most part, retail investors buy high and sell low, it’s usually the Smart Money on the other side of the trade who are selling high and buying low.

Taskmaster4450 talked about this yesterday in his post titled, Why There Is No Need For FOMO On Steem

The investing world is full of FOMO (fear of missing out) at times. It is what often drives markets, often to the point of insanity.

Investing is a zero-sum game, so it also drives retail investor to the poor house.

Why do you think Ken took a recent stake in Roku and Roku was upgraded by Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets?  It’s because there isn’t an ounce of FOMO in their blood and because Roku now selling at a discount.  Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Medvedev continues his fine form to Set Up Shanghai Master Final with Zverev

![Screenshot_20191012-172631.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRFGcsvC2N3EMrUtgvDdx8fBUwqk2KeNHfi5SNzwVebsq/Screenshot_20191012-172631.png) Image Source Russia’s Daniil Medvedev recently had a show down with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semi final match of the Shanghai Masters today, which is Saturday. It was all victory for him as he went on to defeat his opponent with the score reading 7-6(5) 7-5. This particular win has remarkably brought him to the ninth final of the season. Congratulations to him for that. He has put down a good record for himself for sure.

As a quick reminder for you guys. Daniil Medvedev is the runner-up for the last tournament of U.S. Open. And going into the Shanghai Masters final, he will be looking forward to adding to his three ATP Tour title on Sunday’s final against Alexander Zverev. No doubt, the 2019 season has been a massive breakthrough for him.

Third seed Daniil Medvedev lost only 16% of his first-serve points and he was able to record an improvement in his win-loss record for the calender year by doing the exploit of saving four of five break points.

This is his sixth straight final after finishing his opponent with a clinical serve and volley combination. Such a great record for him. I am very well impressed with his commitment and determination and I wish him success in the final match.

ETN technical analysis

ETNseen from the 1W temporality we can observe how the price 1 month ago broke up the descending wedge causing an impulse of 4 bullish candles, the previous candle managed to close above the resistance located at 0.00000048, indicated in the chart above by the horizontal dark blue color, the closing has been with little volume, but the bulls have managed to mark signal continuation, the current candle is retreating in search of greater demand for the next move, so we should see a retreat into the area of demand located between the price range of 0.00000038 – 0.00000039, in this zone the price could find the necessary demand for a strong rebound of the price, the structure would be forming us a very necessary HL to determine if the price will continue rising, however, the price could also retreat to the zone of weekly demand located at 0.00000033, where the price would make us a double floor on the horizontal indicated in the graph above in black, if the price fails to hold the support and closes below that level, then we would have a new LL to the support located at 0.00000019.

ETN seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the price in its retreat has formed a bearish “leg”, so we should one more as a result of that pattern, the key support level is located at 0.00000038, if we get a rebound in that zone, the price should have a strong bullish momentum that moves the price above the resistance located at 0.00000048 to achieve our profit targets, the first profit target is located at 0.00000058, while the second profit target is located at 0.00000070.

In conclusion, ETN has dropped a large percentage since the month of March this year 2019, now the price is showing trend reversal signal, we still need confirmation that the price will form an HL, this would be a great buyback signal to continue to rise, the long-term profit target is located within the price range of 0.00000108 – 0.00000115, indicated in the 1W chart by a light blue rectangle, however, if the price falls below 0.00000033, it is very possible that the price will form a new LL towards the support located at 0.00000019, therefore, I recommend to follow the price action in 1D and always use stop loss in your trades to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Liberland meetup in Prague

Yet another regular Prague meet-up which takes place every first Tuesday of the month. We discussed the newly created Free Trade Zone, a new social network for Liberlanders and the creation of a national ski association. This Sunday there will be a special event at our office in Prague as side event of the Paralelní Polis Hacker Congress. Join us! — s uživateli Tomáš Kupka, Michael Dupree Jr, Slavomir Katuscak, Jana Markovičová, Petr Křovina, Vít Jedlička a Filip Houf

Bitcoin Price Clears First Hurdle

Few days back we looked at bitcoin price as it neared the 7400 area again. Since then price got a boost and rallied with yesterday’s candle giving a nice push through the 8400 area, which is where price stalled out on the last bounce.

Ideal situation is we stay above 8400 before making a run at the prior support level of 9400. There are some prior tops from earlier in the year at 8700 as well so we could see some struggle there first.

Patience is Key

Downside remains the same. 7600 area is support. I’m not initiating any new positions here as the upside is nearly the same amount as the potential downside. Still holding my adds from the past couple weeks at 8400 and 7800. 9400 is my first profit target.