What’s Ray Dalio Got Up His Sleeves???

Ray Dalio is the founder,
co-Chief Investment Officer and co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, which is
a global macro investment firm and is the world’s largest hedge fund.  Ray Dalio Bloomberg is the world’s 58th
wealthiest person, worth an estimated $19 billion.  Ray Dalio accumulated his wealth because he
thought differently about the Markets.

While at Bridgewater Ray
invented several investment strategies including: Risk Parity, Currency overlay
and Portable alpha. However, the success at Bridgewater was due to Pure Alpha,
which allowed Bridgewater to dabble in almost any asset class it desired, with
the goal of producing a return that was uncorrelated to other markets and All
Weather (commonly referred to as risk parity) which meant to be balanced across
risk exposures.

Risk parity is a conceptual approach to investing which attempts to provide a lower risk and lower fee alternative to the traditional portfolio allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds which carries 90% of its risk in the stock portion of the portfolio. The risk parity approach attempts to equalize risk by allocating funds to a wider range of categories such as stocks, government bonds, credit-related securities and inflation hedges (including real assets, commodities, real estate and inflation-protected bonds), while maximizing gains through financial leveraging. According to Bob Prince, CIO at Bridgewater Associates, the defining parameters of a traditional risk parity portfolio are uncorrelated assets, low equity risk, and passive management.

Source

I’m a huge fan of Ray.  Not only is he a brilliant investor, but he is a brilliant teacher as well.  Ray said there are three stages in life.  The first stage is where you are dependent on others (i.e. kid).  The second state is where other are dependent on you (i.e. parent).  The third stage is where you attempt to get those dependent on you to become independent. An example of this third stated was his 2011, self-published “Principles”, that outlines his philosophy of investment and corporate management based on a lifetime of observation, analysis and practical application through his hedge fund.

Some of those principles
include:

  • “If you work hard and think creatively, you can have just about anything you want, but not everything you want.”
  • With fifteen to twenty good, uncorrelated return streams, you can dramatically reduce your risks without reducing your expected returns. The “Holy Grail of Investing.”
  • Individual assets within an asset class are usually about 60% correlated with each other, so even if you think you’re diversified, you’re not.
  • Making a handful of good uncorrelated best that are balanced and leveraged well is the surest way of having a lot of upside without being exposed to unacceptable downside.
  • Look to the patterns of those things that affect you in order to understand the cause-effect relationships that drive them and to learn principles for dealing with them effectively.
  • Don’t get hung up on your views about how things should be because then you’ll miss out on learning how they really are.
  • “In order to be great, one can’t compromise the uncompromisable.”
  • “Make your passion and your work one and the same and do it with people you want to be with.”

Ray made headlines this past Friday, when an article published by the Wall Street Journal indicated his fund was putting on a $1.5 billion bet that global stock markets would drop precipitously by March 2020. In a series of Tweets, Ray responded the following:

 Wall Street Journal spokesman Steve Severinghaus defended the paper’s reporting in a statement to CNBC:

“The Journal’s article is based on interviews with multiple sources and we stand by the conclusions we reported,” Severinghaus said in an email.

“The article does not report, as Mr. Dalio says, that Bridgewater has a ‘net’ bearish position on the stock market. The article made clear that the trade could be a hedge for the firm’s significant long exposure to equity markets, among other possibilities,” he added.

Source

Usually where there is smoke, there is fire and I think Ray has something up his sleeves. With the Markets at all time highs, anything is possible…I guess we will find out within the next three months.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Another attempt at image transfer – Sunflower 2

An image transfer is when you use a certain polaroid or in this case fuji instant film and then transfer the emulsion onto art paper before it has developed properly.

Photo taken with Polaroid 600SE  camera, Fuji fp-100c

More instructions on how to do an image transfer in the link below

https://steemit.com/emulsionlift/@pcste/thisweekihavebeenexperimentingwithfujifp-100cimagetransfersandemulsionlifts-riiym9lvpk

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 56

Ironically, while, I keep having to wipe away the blood covering my portfolio this has been a wonderful week in terms of informative articles, insightful tweets, and educational podcasts/vids. So, rather than lamenting short-term price action, delve right into to the ever-fascinating cryptosphere.


If invested and still plagued by doubt – ponder this:
Has BTC’s long-term outlook fundamentally changed?

If you hold only Alts – answer this:
Why?


Picks of the Week

This simple explanation of the current CPU congestion plaguing the EOS network and this jargon-free overview of Oracles and their critical role for the future development of blockchain networks. If it’s charts you are after – this site is a literal treasure trove!


Twitter

Explaining BTC to ‘normal’ folks (recommended):
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1196256830743142400

Miners it seems are feeling the pressure (recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1196607463593635840

Crypto writers providing value (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/MitchellMoos/status/1172590258954752000

Vitalik makes some optimistic promises for Ethereum (recommended):
https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1196896377877471233

Maker DAI,SAI,DAI?
https://twitter.com/Ivshti/status/1195090264567820298

On LINK as an oracle provider:
https://twitter.com/DLTPandu/status/1195022468739719168

The good old days:
https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1195623327559278592

On DeFi (recommended):
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1191544850681942016

Just a little debt:
https://twitter.com/ObiWanKenoBit/status/1194673519017086976


Articles

Stanford digs into blockchain use-cases (highly recommended):
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/2019-blockchain-social-impact

Coinbase on Proof of Work:
https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-views-proof-of-work-security-f4ba1a139da0

Wyoming forges ahead with progressive crypto banking laws:
https://www.coindesk.com/wyomings-new-crypto-banking-law-could-defang-new-yorks-bitlicense

Just when you get to grips with PoW and PoS…along comes Proof of Authority (PoA):
https://cointelegraph.com/news/proof-of-authority-algorithm-use-cases-grow-from-pharma-to-games

Devs aplenty are focused on Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs):
https://www.coindesk.com/an-army-of-bitcoin-devs-is-battle-testing-upgrades-to-privacy-and-scaling

Key talking points from Dan Larimer at Blocksburg event:
https://www.eosgo.io/news/dan-larimer-key-topics-at-blocksburg-summit

The 2020s seen as an inflection point for the global economy:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/the-2020s-set-to-be-an-economic-turning-point/11699386


Podcast

Learning from the OneCoin scam (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/what-bitcoiners-can-learn-from-onecoin-scam-jamie-bartlett/id1317356120?i=1000456898865


YouTube

Always fun to run-out a BTC prediction:


A fix for the EOS CPU issue? Excellent overview of the situation at hand (highly recommended):


Explaining Oracles (highly recommended):


Learning while you laugh (recommended):


A look into a baseline encryption algorithm – Rijndael (recommended):


Infographics

BTC mining difficulty about to turn down:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1196486453699567616

EIDOS mining model not exactly helping EOS:

https://twitter.com/stellabelle/status/1193162367430987776/photo/1


Website / Utility

Bitcoin charts across a wide-array of metrics (highly recommended):

https://charts.woobull.com/


As you can see, plenty to take-in this week over and above the current price. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Artificial Intelligence Says XRP Will Hit $0.65 In 2020

Artificial Intelligence is essentially getting computers to think like humans in terms of cognitive abilities.  Artificial intelligence is all about getting machines react to suggestions or inputs in the way humans do with the goal of perform major tasks and solve problems without the need for human intervention.

Image result for ibm’s watson

The earliest form of artificial intelligence that comes to mind is IBM’s Watson.  In 2011, IBM Watson, beat the two all-time best Jeopardy players.  Even years before that, in 1997, IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue made history as the first computer to beat a world champion in a six-game match.

Image result for Elon Musk

Elon Musk went on record a couple of years ago stating that he believes it’s highly likely that artificial intelligence will be a threat to people and that there will be a few major companies that end up in control of AI systems with “extreme” levels of power.

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer, the billionaire, Mark Cuban said the impact of artificial intelligence across different industries and cultures will surpass the wide-ranging effects of some previous technologies, including personal computers, mobile, even the internet.  But it’s already having an impact….from Alexa, to Siri to translating Facebook posts into different languages, etc.

But can it predict where stock prices will be in the future?  What about predicting the price of XRP?

Despite the current decline in the price, the WalletInvestor website indicates the possibility of XRP getting into active growth.

Despite the current decline in the price, the WalletInvestor website indicates the possibility of XRP getting into active growth.  According to the AI ​​service data, the price of the token will increase to around $ 0.65 in 2020.

Unfortunately, this value is far from being consistent with the forecasts of the crypto community representatives. Some of them predict a price of at least $1. However, this is just a forecast and no one knows how the token will actually act.

As the main conference for the Ripple community came closer, many analysts promised a doubling of the XRP price. However, during and after the conference, the XRP failed to reach new heights. Today, the token is being traded at $ 0.26. If the cryptocurrency does not consolidate at this level, it will roll back to support near $ 0.25 or even lower ones.

Source

Before any prediction comes true or doesn’t come true, price will first have to contend with the daily demand at $0.23 and the sellers at the $0.40 level.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Click the link below to listen to the 63rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.


External Podcast Links


https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-chinas-blockchain-play-part-2-of-5/id1441492450?i=1000457404078

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-p5gu2-c8561e


Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week continues the series examining China’s stance on blockchain seeking to highlight how the Chinese Communist Parties’ approach to Bitcoin is a net positive for the long-term outlook of BTC.

A Caveat

This short format doesn’t lend itself to an in-depth exploration of each statement made. It is therefore inescapably dogmatic in tone and delivery. As always in the world of crypto verify don’t trust – research and lots of it will serve you much better than a surface acceptance or rejection of the perspectives placed before you by any pundit.


To begin – it’s useful to differentiate Bitcoin from the thousands of Altcoins that currently crowd the market. Where many cryptos claim to be distributed, decentralized and therefore uncensorable – BTC in a practical sense – actually is. There is no company, no active founder, no controlling entity and no state oversight. Bitcoin slipped the bonds of control and achieved the heretofore impossible goal of creating a viable alternative to state-issued fiat. To quote Friedrich Hayek:

I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can’t stop.

Hayek, 1984

This is powerful stuff…and not easy to replicate. Though there is a great deal of potential across a range of blockchain use-cases – it is money, wealth storage and value transfer where the first wave of profoundly impactful change is possible. Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency which finds itself placed to disrupt the current monetary system. It’s competitors though full of lofty goals may ultimately be viewed as both less ambitious and likely less impactful.

If you find yourself baulking at this statement of BTC supremacy perhaps take a few months to deeply analyse the cryptosphere, broader market fundamentals, and the current financial system.


OK, so BTC scene set – how then can China’s recent embrace of blockchain be seen as a positive for Bitcoin?

The answer is in a sense – obvious. As argued in Part 1 of this series – Blockchain as envisaged by the Communist Party of China – is first and foremost a tool of control. Whether China rolls out one or many blockchains – they will share a fundamental quality – oversight and beyond this – mutability. As long as the CPC retains power there will never be a truly independent state-endorsed blockchain network in China. If not the internet, then why blockchain?

Each and every iteration of blockchain regardless of function and utility will rest within the authority of the Chinese state. Vast sums of money may be made, investors enriched and efficiencies achieved but these databases will, at core, be tools for state supervision and coercion. China will not be alone in pushing the state blockchain narrative – authoritarian states the world over will do so and likely follow the ‘Beijing’ model. Beyond this, comparatively freer societies will likely see political embrace of ‘good’ blockchain while decentralized options are at least, at first, eschewed.
So how then is this good for Bitcoin?

Simply put – comparison. By direct comparison through time, most market participants will observe the superiority of a free, decentralized network over that of one controlled by their own government. As concrete examples of the ‘downsides’ of blockchain supervision become increasingly evident, the alternative embodied by BTC will be increasingly obvious. Investment will likely follow…

This might take decades to fully playout but the freedoms offered by Bitcoin simply cannot be replicated by a state.

Global market forces alone will drive a value divergence between BTC and state-controlled blockchains. It may well be that accessing BTC becomes all but impossible for the ordinary citizens of countries like China but the wealthy will find a way – as they do right now. Within China, BTC’s value will likely flow from both the top and the bottom – the top for profit, the bottom for freedom. It really doesn’t matter if ‘most’ individuals accept the state narrative as only a minority need to buck the yoke to lead to a strengthening of BTC as a viable alternative. Of course, outside looking in – the comparative desirability of BTC will likely not escape the market’s attention.

Bitcoin may have many a tumultuous year, it may be banned, attacked, forked and vilified but ultimately it stands apart from centralized state solutions and each passing year will likely serve to make that contrast clearer.

Thanks for listening.


Resources

I’m Not Buying What Kohl’s Is Saying

The internet was originally built to hold and share data, making the transfer of data timely and seamless. The internet has evolved over time, and today the internet is allowing for a timely and seamless transfer of goods.

The rise of ecommerce outlets has made it harder for traditional retailers to attract customers to their stores and there is no bigger culprit than Amazon. So what did Kohl’s do, the got in bed with the enemy a year ago and partnered with Amazon. Kohl’s now accepts Amazon returns and has Amazon shops in their stores where they sell Amazon products such as the Echo smart speakers.

The partnership simplifying the returns process for Amazon and showcasing Echo devices and other Alexa-compatible hardware and in return brings in addition foot traffic into the Kohl’s stores. Case in point, the partnership is even gaining traction with millennials, who otherwise would have ignored Kohl’s.

Kohl has even teamed up with Weight Watchers, for an in-store studio and Healthy Kitchen products at some locations.  In addition, in an effort to drive more foot traffic to its stores, Kohl’s is partnering with Planet Fitness.

Retailers closed a record 100 million square feet of store space in 2017, another 155 million square feet, according to estimates by the commercial real-estate firm CoStar Group.  This year more than 9,000 stores are expected to close in 2019.  From Sears, Kmart, Party City, Walgreens, Barneys, Family Dollar, Chico’s and others. Payless has said it plans to close all of its 2,500 stores in what could be the largest retail liquidation in history.

So is Kohl’s really just holding on for dear life?

Department store chain Kohl’s remained confident its Amazon partnership would boost sales despite cutting its full-year guidance ahead of the holiday season.

The retailer’s stock KSS, -19.49% plunged more than 17% on Tuesday after missing third-quarter sales estimates and slashing its annual earnings forecast.

The company had hoped its expanded tie-up with the e-commerce company would have a positive impact on its second-half performance. However, Kohl’s slashed its full-year earnings guidance after the third quarter—the first full quarter since the nationwide rollout of the Amazon Returns program. The company said it now expected adjusted earnings per share of $4.75 to $4.95, down from previous guidance of $5.15 to $5.45; the FactSet consensus had been $5.19. Same-store sales in the third quarter rose 0.4%, below FactSet estimates of 0.9% growth.

Despite the earnings miss, Kohl’s Chief Executive Michelle Gass said the company had “momentum” going into the holiday season, which she was confident would be strong because of the Amazon partnership and investments in new brands and products.

Source

Kohl’s stock price fell the most in three years on the earning’s announcement. So is there more pain in store, yes as the chart suggests price is heading down to the monthly demand at $35?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Bison

Contemplating the coming day..



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Volatility Is Coming…HODL

Stocks rallied to record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 28,000 for the first time, Friday after White House officials said the U.S. and China are getting closer to a phase one trade deal.  On Monday, the DOW and S&P 500 set another record.  This marked 20+ record highs for 2019.  

Many pundits on Wall Street think things are just getting started as the last two months have been great to investors from a historical standpoint, thanks to the so called “Santa Claus” rally.

The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to rally over the last weeks of December into the New Year…the halo effect of Christmas perhaps. However, the Wealthy have a different perspective.  They aren’t Wealthy for nothing…as they tend to think about how much they can lose, not how much they can make.

Bullish buyers have sent the S&P 500 Index soaring to a series of record highs this month, but wealthy investors are bracing for a significant market decline by the end of 2020, and now hold, on average, 25% of their assets in cash, according to a worldwide survey by UBS Global Wealth Management that drew more than 3,400 responses.

Other key findings of the survey were: nearly 80% expect volatility to increase, 55% anticipate a significant stock market selloff before the end of 2020, and 62% look to increase their diversification across asset classes. While the average allocation to cash among respondents was 25%, this was down from 32% in an earlier iteration of the survey in May. Also, per a report in Barron’s about the survey, 52% are uncertain whether it is a good time to invest now, but 64% are thinking about increasing their holdings of high quality stocks.

Source

And their concerns are being supported by the VIX. The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX aka the stock market fear gauge, is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility implied.

Devesh Shah, an applied mathematician and hedge fund manager who formerly worked for Goldman Sachs, was one of the creators of the CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX is quoted in percentage points and is the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, with a 68% probability. VIX values greater than 30 represent investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 represent complacent in the Markets.

Source

The current VIX level, near 12, is near the lowest historical levels of the past 12 months, which means it’s setting up for a pop higher, which will correlate to a drop in the equity makes.    In addition, the Smart Money added to their bearish bets on the VIX futures for a fifth straight week and for the tenth time in the past eleven weeks. The green line represents the Smart Money and the fact that the open positions are increasing is evidence that they have been adding to their short position. All I can say is HODL because the ride will get bumpy at some point.

Source Image

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.