The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 41

Tight, tight, tight on the Bitcoin chart (even with yesterday’s drop) -shouldn’t be long before a significant resolution one way or the other. As to the Alts – they’ve been savaged with no sign of recovery on the horizon. 

Global markets are looking very shaky with gold, silver, and Bitcoin the beneficiaries. The dollar seems set to run up against most currencies particularly those of developing nations. China essentially devalued the Yuan this week – letting the sub 7 Yuan peg against the dollar finally break. This week once again highlights some of the red-lights flashing throughout the global economy. Could the party go on – could lower interest rates and further money printing – first rescue – then pump global markets -absolutely they could but I’m not betting on it.


Picks of the Week

A chart-storm highlighting the looming dollar run-up against its competitors is fascinating. In a similar vein, the interview with Raoul Pal examining systemic global market risk factors is compelling.


Twitter

The perspective of a hardcore hodler:
https://twitter.com/americanhodl4/status/1158767094646763520

PoW is about physics, not code:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1157289951274229760

Blockchain use case 101:
https://twitter.com/GordonBuckley3/status/115895901479895859

A currency crisis in the making – here and now outlined using a host of current charts (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1159076338126532610

Reflections on the Asian tech scene/dynamics:
https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1158828388599193601


Articles

Crypto books to delve into the rabbit hole:
https://medium.com/shapeshift-stories/9-best-books-for-crypto-beginners-2d102d73c7e

Ever wondered what a Decentralized Autonomous Organizations DAO is? – well, I’ve got you covered:
https://hackernoon.com/what-is-a-dao-c7e84aa1bd69

A simple explanation of blockchain – handy to have on hand for the newly curious:
https://medium.com/@sidharth_m/beginners-guide-to-blockchain-explaining-it-to-a-5-years-old-772caac6ae97

Wide-ranging and balanced tour of EOS and its ecosystem:
https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/08/eos-digest-4

Kik filed a reply to the SEC complaint against them – and Katherine Wu took he time to annotate the entire document (recommended for those of a legal persuasion):
https://www.katherinewu.me/writings/kik-answer-sec-ico-complaint

A fascinating list of ‘Laws’ that seem to apply to many different fields of endeavour (recommended):
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/laws/


 Podcasts

A jargon-free explanation of crypto decentralization and the challenges of attaining it.

​​https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-key-concepts-8-decentralization/id1441492450?i=1000446320221


A wide-ranging discussion of current global macro risks and BTC (highly recommended):

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/93/


YouTube

Unpacking the implications of the recent FED rate cut for BTC – with some useful back history (recommended):



​​A brief discussion of the Dunning Kruger Effect well worth being aware of as a budding crypto trader/investor/enthusiast:


Coming to a democracy near you – are restrictions on cash transaction paving the way for steep negative interest rates?

https://youtu.be/770M2s6ZD8Y

There’s a lot of smoke around the state of the Chinese economy – the sky isn’t falling but this is perhaps part of the appeal of crypto for Chinese investors? (recommended):


Website / Utility

Starting Sept 9th – a free university-level course on blockchain – 11 units – live sessions – many by Anton Antonopoulos (Note: you have to supply your contact details -including phone number):

​​


Course outline:

https://www.unic.ac.cy/blockchain/free-mooc/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Banner&utm_term=Free-MOOC-Spring-2019&utm_campaign=Free-MOOC-Spring-2019

That one flew by. Learned a lot – worried a little -such is crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/12/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)        

Consumer Staples (XLP)                   

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)              

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                      

Real Estate (XLRE)                          

Technology (XLK)                 

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/11/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crypto Contest August 10: Robotina

Robotina (HitBTC: ROXETH) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Robotina began a wave one advance in July 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in March this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Robotina should be heading next towards the March peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Robotina is a blockchain enabled green energy platform. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Robotina and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Ag Analysis Report – 8/9/19…Is Corn Prices Going Lower???

The planting season in 2019 was historically slow due to wet weather several months ago. The storms left millions of acres unseeded and put corn crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage.  For example, in May, a farmer in Indiana said his corn crop was only 6% planted at the time, but this was the case in most of the Midwestern states as many farmers experienced record flooding across the central United States.

Image result for corn and flooding

The latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield, as well as a noticeable variation from the July U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.

AccuWeather analysts predict the 2019 corn yield will be 13.07 billion bushels, a decline of 9.3% from 2018 and 5.8% lower than the latest USDA figures. It would be the lowest yield since 2012, a year of a significant drought that saw final corn production numbers plummet to 10.76 billion bushels.

Source

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only).  On Monday they report their numbers for corn.

I have no idea what the crop yield is going to be when the report is issued on Monday. Big here is a bigger picture of the corn futures on the weekly chart.

So I will repeat, I have no idea what the results are going to be on Monday, but based on the daily chart, the chart suggests, the results will surprise on the upside, pushing prices down, due to price entering a daily supply as I finish this post.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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