The Sunday Crypto Recap -Down the Rabbit Hole 40

Once again, the stars aligned for Bitcoin with the FED clearly capitulating to political pressure and dropping rates and the trade war rhetoric between the US and China once again heating up. With elections looming does a deal seem likely? Of course, careful what you wish for as BTC is still in all probability a risk-on asset – so a global crisis might well see a steep sell-off. My two cents – global uncertainty is bullish for crypto while a full-blown recession would be very bearish at least in the initial phase of an economic turndown.

As to the charts, BTC is attempting to push its head above the parapet but very weak volume remains a considerable concern in the short-term. Nonetheless, recent price action has been bullish.

Leverage trading seems to be shilled everywhere recently – this period of thin volume is the absolute worst time to enter leveraged positions – it’s effectively degenerate gambling. Speaking of degenerates, who asked for 1 second charts on TradingView?


Picks of the Week

This article’s examination of the psychology underlying incentives, co-operation, and the decentralized web is a standout this week with Off the Chain’s interview of Saifedean Ammous also incredibly interesting.


Twitter

An ongoing series and a great recap of the top themes from the last week in crypto:
https://twitter.com/nlw/status/1155915912005836801

A wide-ranging analysis of the month of July for the crypto space (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1157038072195760128

Fully collateralized is to be applauded (literally):
https://twitter.com/spencernoon/status/1156359538628427776

Print money buy private companies -nothing can go wrong, right?:
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1156433611899297793

Too early to link BTC to Fed monetary decisions – Alex Kruger certainly thinks so:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1156427501578702849

Read-reread and ponder:
https://twitter.com/BTC_Macro/status/1156416220670889984

On trading (light-hearted):
https://twitter.com/jebus911/status/1156264134599761920


Articles

Examining the psychology of the emerging decentralized web (highly recommended):
https://hackernoon.com/psychology-of-the-dweb-fe61039ob

A wide-range of opinion snippets on BTC as a store of value (recommended):
https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitcoin-a-store-of-value-experts-on-btc-as-digital-gold

EOS governance is exhibiting challenges and no easy solutions are forthcoming (highly recommended):
https://www.eoswriter.io/152469_eos-vote-buying-rewards-for-voting-or-a-decentralised-network-.eos

Thankfully at least some US politicians realize that a ban on BTC is unlikely to succeed:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2019/07/30/us-lawmakers-are-realizing-they-cant-ban-bitcoin/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Carrie%2F#35a1c6a23e31

Well, that didn’t last long (centralized entities have obvious pressure points that significantly undermine advantages of scale:
https://www.coindesk.com/facebook-libra-might-not-ever-launch-concedes-firm?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=coindesk&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Organic

An overview of token burning mechanisms in crypto:
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/token-burning-explained


Podcast

BTC discussed from the perspective of Austrian economics (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/saifedean-ammous-author-bitcoin-standard-future-bitcoin/id1434060078?i=1000445032350


YouTube

Inflation is perhaps often overlooked when considering crypto investments:


A brief but reasoned outline of possible BTC price movement from here:


A wide-ranging update on the state of the EOS dapp ecosystem (recommended):


Zero Knowledge proofs and their function explained:


Infographic

Yep, that’ another ATH for BTC Hash Rate:

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=all


Fed easing rates with a strong labour market – generally a harbinger of an economic downturn (1997 Asian economic crisis being the exception):

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1154813996941238273

See you all down the crypto rabbit hole before you know it! As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

More Downside Ahead For Fluor Corp. – Part 2

Two months ago, I wrote,

More Downside Ahead For Fluor Corp.

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operation, maintenance and asset integrity, and project management services worldwide.

Fluor is not only down 30% in May, but down 50% since the beginning of the year. And since the monthly candle just closed below the 2009 pivot low, the chart suggests price will continue to decline to the monthly demand at $13.

Today, I had a great conversation with some of the folks over at the Steemleo Discord channel where I stated the Markets can be timed.

Fluor Corp. is just one example. The fundamentals would of allowed you to time the down fall in Fluor Corp. from the previous earning announcement in May. On Friday Fluor Corp. announced their second quarter earnings.  The company reported a net loss of $554.8 million, or $3.96 a share, from a profit of $114.8 million, or 82 cents a share, from a year ago and missed revenue expectations in the process. During the earnings call, the CFO said cash flow was going to be in the red the rest of the year negative and that they would need to sale off some assets.   

Even if you aren’t a fundamentalist…like myself, the charts told you the same thing and suggested more downside. After Fluor Corp announced their earnings, the stock dropped more than 25% to a level not seen since November of 2004. We are talking about level last seen 15 years ago.

So whether you area fundamentalist or a chart technician, both analysis work, however, I just chose to use the charts to time the markets as I think it’s a better leading indicator because the Smart Money also leaves their footprints behind.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: could it be an enormous Bullish Flag?

5 consecutive days of green candles already, despite BITCOIN has not increase so much in volume , BTC has broken strongly the Falling Wedge and so, it is going upwards while trying to break another known resistance at 10800 USD right now:

What I can see here is an interesting Flag pattern in formation. Usually this pattern use to provide till 5 rebounds before breaking the upper resistance (a-b-c-d-e) but it is known that also can be broken on the 4th, so at (d).

This is my current scenario: If the upper resistance (red line) is broken powerfully on (d), it would mean that the correction and so the end of the wave II was already done at (c) around 9000 USD… If, by the contrary, BTC finds strong resistance at (d), it would be likely to have another test of the inclined support on (e), ending there the correction…

In a graphical manner, two options, both bullish, of course:

Option 1:


Option 2:

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Metal Analysis Report 8/3/19 – Gold Basing…Before The March Higher

Central banks continued to load up on gold in the first half, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.

Nations added 374.1 tons in the first six months as Russia and China kept building reserves and Poland made a massive purchase. The trend is expected to continue, with a recent survey of central banks showing 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months.

Central banks around the world have added to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar.

Source

I’m not surprised, saw it coming in Dec. when Gold put in a bottom aka the “Smiley Face.”

Metal Analysis Report 12-7-18…Do You See What I See???

YES, YES, the chart is suggesting price is forming a bottom and also broke the daily down trendline last month.

The bottom was only validated in subsequent months by the “talking heads” and the Smart Money on Wall Street.

Others Are Jumping Onto The Gold Bandwagon Too

This past Thursday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on his show, Mad Money that he was frustrated about the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and recommended that investors buy into the bull market in gold. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray thinks Jim is right.

Goldman Sach Just Jumped On The Wagon

And just this past week, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sach is forecasting gold prices moving higher within the next 12 months.

Metal Analysis Report 6/24/19 – Gold Confirms…It’s Time To Buy

Not only has price breached the five year resistance band, but also closed above the big fat round number of $1400. The chart suggests price moves higher to the monthly supply at $1600, with pull backs along the way.

Although Gold has stalled in recent weeks, it’s not time to sell, it’s just basing before price marches higher.

Yes, the US dollar moving higher had something to do with Gold basing, but the real reason is the buyers continue to eat away at the unfilled sell orders just under the weekly supply at $1475.

So those in Gold for the long haul, don’t fret, it’s all part of the impulse move, then correction, just know it’s the long term buyers that are now causing the impulse moves and the sellers and short term buyers causing the correction…1st target remains $1600.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/5/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Consumer Staples (XLP)              

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)                           

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                  

Real Estate (XLRE)                       

Technology (XLK)                  

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Benefits of Investing in Designated Opportunity Zones

One of the good things about real estate (and there are many) is that the government generally creates incentives for investors and developers to provide housing in certain areas.

This is the case with the fairly new “opportunity zones” initiative that launched in December of 2017 with the tax cuts and jobs act legislation.  Let’s discuss what the benefits are of investing in one of these areas.

Investing in Designated Opportunity Zones

By investing in opportunity zones you can save a bunch on capital gains taxes.   Similar to a 1031, but with more flexibility, you only need to designate the gains from a property into the opportunity fund.

That money obviously needs to be used to invest in one of the many opportunity zones designated by the government entities.   You can see a map of opportunity zones here.

Tax Benefits of Opportunity Zone Investing

A basis step-up for capital gains reinvested in an opportunity fund

A temporary deferral of taxable income for capital gains reinvested into an opportunity fund.

A permanent exclusion of capital gains if the investment is held for at least 10 years.

For us buy hold folks that last one is very enticing as normally you will hold a rental for atleast 10 years.  Capital gains being excluded permanently sounds nice to me!  It’s likely a 15% savings staying in my pocket!

Tax benefits are just one of the reasons rental properties are so awesome.

Takeaway agrees to buy Just Eat in $10bn deal

Takeaway
agrees to buy Just Eat in $10bn deal (Reuters)

  • While Reuters reported this as a takeover, its more strictly a merger. And of course, as with all these deals, its just discussions, Takeaway.com has until 24th Aug to announce a firm offer or withdraw (Takeover panel rules).
  • Investors in Just Eat are likely to be offered 0.9744 Takeaway.com shares for each Just Eat share, implying a value of 731p or c. a 15% premium to the closing price on the previous Friday before the possible deal was announced. As a result, Just Eat shareholders would own just over 52% of the combined group.
  • The article highlights the apparent role of US activist investor Cat Rock, who is a holder of shares in both companies.
  • Some analysts have highlighted the lack of overlap between the two companies (the exception being Switzerland) as being a positive feature of the proposed deal.
  • Takeaway.com argues that online food ordering can be highly profitable – but only for the leading player in each market.

Analysis and comments

  • The competitive situation for the two companies is very different. Takeaway’s markets have a limited overlap with Uber & Deliveroo, whereas for Just Eat the situation is the exact opposite.
  • The cross border synergies between operators are limited, unless the target company is very inefficiently run.
  • This deal highlights some wider lessons for similar platform type markets. Yes, the potential end market is large (& growing rapidly). But, having a large (& fast growing) addressable market is not enough on its own to ensure profitability.
  • Its important to also look at the local delivery cost structure & the level of competition. On both counts the outlook for Just Eat looks challenging.
  • This is an aspect of many of the new emerging companies that investors seem to miss – yes the end market looks attractive, but even if there are barriers to entry, multiple players in the market can make it really tough to select a long term winner.
  • Furthermore, if the infrastructure or product is replicable – companies may sustain extended losses as they fight for market share, especially if your competitor has deep pockets.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/4/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crypto Contest August 3: FuzeX

FuzeX (HitBTC: FXTBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, FuzeX began a wave one advance on June 18. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on June 25, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 31. If this wave count is correct, FuzeX should be heading next towards the June 25 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

The FuzeX ecosystem provides real-time exchange between crypto and fiat currencies. You can watch their promo video below.

(Sources: FuzeX and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Look the other way..

A Meerkat pretending to ignore.



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