Currency Analysis Report 8-5-19…The Thailand Baht Is Doing Very Well

The foreign exchange market is where currencies are traded. When investors trade foreign exchange (forex or FX for short) they’re buying and selling currencies over the foreign exchange market.

The forex market is the largest and most traded financial market in the world. The forex market has grown to a daily trade volume of over $5 trillion a day which is over 200 times bigger than the New York Stock Exchange.

I try to stick to the major currencies and the minor currencies. The majors are the currencies of the major global economies – the US, Japan, UK, Euro Zone, Canada, Australia, Switzerland and New Zealand and stay away from the exotic currencies because they are a lot less liquid and prone to “slippage” and it also means they have wider spreads than the majors and the crosses.  However, I at least pay attention to them…at least from a distance.

The Thailand currency is call the Baht.  And as strong as the US dollar has been against all the major currencies this year, I was shock to read that the Baht has been outperforming the US dollar this year (+5%) and year over year (+8).

But this isn’t necessary good for the Thailand as their exports have become more expensive and so will ultimately hurt their economy.  This is why Trump has been fighting with China for the last 1.5 years.  Our trade balance with China is so lopsided as a result of China continuing to depreciate their currency whenever it suits their best interests.

Anyway, back to the Baht, is there any hope for the country of Thailand in regards to a cheaper Baht, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 35.750 and monthly demand is at 29.000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price on a pull back to the daily supply at 31.350 with a target just above the top the of the monthly zone.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: As expected…

… BITCOIN is now testing the Upper Resistance line within the Bullish Flag.

And, as I wrote in this post a couple of days ago, there are two options, both of them positive:

OPTION 1:

Correction is done and we are in wave three of the continuation of the Uptrend.


OPTION 2:

Still one retest of the lower ground of the Bullish Flag would be expected on (e) around 8250 USD in order to end the II wave in violet, then, strong rebound upwards.


24 Hours Volume seems to support the breakage of the upper resistance and also the RSI on the Daily still show a healthy status since it is moving within the limits.

Trend is our friend so, wait to see next move and decide wisely.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Waiting for an Alt Rally: An LTC vs BTC Analysis

Anyone paying attention to crypto knows that BTC has been soaring against alt coins for most of the year.  Many alts are near their yearly or all time lows versus BTC.

So when is the right time to get into alts?

LTC vs. BTC analysis

Looking at the daily chart of LTC vs BTC you can see price is currently testing the most recent bottom.  Obviously if price holds here then we have a double bottom in that we may be able to trad off of.  However, the ultimate lows are still a but further away at .007.

From a risk-reward perspective the trade really isn’t all that bad right here considering price was at .017 just a couple months ago.

Even if price went to the lows to stop you out, it would be only a .0015 loss compared to the possible upside of .009

That’s a 6 to 1 risk-reward ratio!!!

If you have ever read the book Money: Master the Game from Tony Robbins there was one of many themes found when he interviewed top money managers.

They looked for investments that offered 5 to 1 risk-reward scenarios and mainly stuck to that rule.

As for LTC against BTC it could certainly continue lower, especially considering BTC has its halving next year and LTC just completed its.

I’m just saying, from a pure trade perspective there is definitely solid arguments for getting long.

 

 

Liberland show

In this episode we interview two dynamic Liberland associates at FreedomFest 2019:

1) Doug Casey (linkedin.com/in/doug-casey)
2) Joseph Langenbrunner (linkedin.com/in/josephlangenbrunner)

More information: www.freedomfest.com

Follow the Liberland Show:
iTunes: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/liberland-show/id1442988844…

Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/6oGiaY901GlfWbaFqgEEaF

Google Podcasts: https://www.google.com/podcasts…

*Our show is hosted by Adam J. Carswell.

STEEM technical analysis

STEEM seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe how the price in the last weeks has been changing the momentum when approaching the second zone of demand in 1W located in the 0.2181, we can clearly see this change in the bodies of candles, we also have bullish divergence from the technical indicator RSI, we see that the relative strength has come up during this structure with double floor potential, in a short time we could see a strong upward movement, we still need to see a bull candle to confirm the intention of the bulls, but the scenario is quite good.

STEEM seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, the last two candles have found support in the same horizontal, we can see in the double floor formed by their wicks, if the current candle ends this way we could see a bullish candle that makes us a bottom tweezer in the next session, within this temporality we also have bullish divergence in relation to the technical indicator RSI, the movement of candles has drawn us a bearish inclination while the relative force has come in increase.

In conclusion, after several weeks of strong bearish movement, STEEM seems to show signs of a possible change of trend with, this change may be very strong, the target zone is the supply zone located at 0.3449, we still need to have bullish confirmation, however, the divergences present already begin to warn us of a possible reversal, I recommend to be very attentive to the closing of the candle and confirmation with the next, we could have a +50% gain once we reach the target.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

A Huge Win For Ripple

Ripple keeps scoring good points both in the media and in the fan-base with XRP, a leading cryptocurrency in the fintech payments industry.

Whether Ripple is a decentralized or centralized blockchain, who cares as long as they are adding value.  Regardless, Ripple and the token, XRP will also have a fanbase that supports their mission.  And it’s not just their fanbase that is supporting the token.

Back in January of 2018, Ripple partnered with MoneyGram, one of the world’s largest money transfer companies to pilot XRP in their payment flows.  In July, Ripple made some noise by acquiring a stake in MoneyGram.

Well, it appears the pilot went very well because MoneyGram is going all in and recently announced that they are adopting Ripple’s xRapid payment, using XRP as the to fund transfers.

However, the announcement was nothing special as it didn’t move the needle in terms of XRP’s price and price has been sitting between daily supply and demand for quite some time.

Since mid-July, price has been coiling up and is about to break out.  A break out to the downside should bring in the buyers around $0.25 and a break out to the upside will be met with sellers at $0.40.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Doubling up on STEEM! Reasons and Thoughts

Dear Steemians,

Here is a quick post to tell you that I am doubling up on STEEM. One of the Reason is HF21 (find all the info from @steemitblog’s post here) but this is neither the only one or the most important.

I think HF21 has its flows, yes it redistributes more to SP holder, but through this it will bring more investors, therefore more Buying pressure and a better STEEM Price I Believe.

More curation rewards also means more attention spent by SP Holder to curate content of quality. This would be beneficial to the entire STEEM Community.

In the end, what is the point to have 75% of your posts STEEM rewards / SBD if they are valued at a few cents, wouldn’t it be better to have 50% of a post valued a few $$$?

Not to mention that your SP and current liquid STEEM would increase in overall value.

As you know, a good STEEM price increase would attract new users, which will make prices go up : Virtuous circle.

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Lately, I have assisted to many projects which confirm that STEEM is the Home of an innovating ecosystem with great entrepreneurs

  • @actifit launching its token on Steem-engine
  • @steem-engine allowing projects to get some kind of funding
  • @steemmonsters keeps on rolling ! Guilds are online and I think the phone APP launch will be the “going to mainstream” moment
  • @drugwars developments are continuing and even if the last release was not to the liking of some in the Community, th game is heading in the right direction
  • @nextcolony is launched and people seem to enjoy it
  • @steem-bounty increases interactions between Steemians
  • @steemhunt has maintained a high level of engagement
  • @partiko is working smoothly and is still my go to app on a mobile phone. (@esteem is also very popular)
  • @steempress allow bloggers all over the world to publish on Steem so easily
  • @dtube and @threespeak allow “Youtubers” to share and earn through the STEEM Platform
  • @appics is entering its final phase of development and will launch its token very soon

I could go on and on ! So many great projects out there !

Later, in another post, I will also share with you some doubts about some of the coins that popped up on Steem-Engine and are valued at delirious levels.

Later, in another post, I will also share with you some doubts about some of the coins that popped up on Steem-Engine and are valued at delirious levels.

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My Latest Transfers to Steemit

Today

On July, 30th

Preparing HF21

As I want to be very active after this HF21, I decided to increase my SP in order to curate some of the best content creators I know on the STEEM Platform

If you happen to have some Spare SP, do not hesitate to fill my offer on @minnowbooster !

I hope you enjoyed this post, if you did : upvote, comment and resteem. I will upvote answers and set a nice @steem-bounty.

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Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 8/5/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

BTC – Beginning of the Week Analysis

So far, BTC has been bullish in August of 2019 (well – actually since the final day of July).

As usual, the mass media is throwing its theories around (such as THIS one) as to why this may be. Most of them are wrong, but let them throw their theories around anyway – it keeps them busy.

Looking at the market broadly, I would suggest that investor confidence is still relatively shaky, despite good 2019 BTC gains. This is evidenced in the poor performance of altcoins, a good indicator that “Adventurous” and “Confident” are not words to be attributed to investors at this point in time. Instead, I think that BTC price has been growing on the increase in trading volume alone (i.e. increased adoption): by now you are all well aware that 2019 volume is massive – even when compared to that of the 2017 bull run. (See volume on chart below)

From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts

Exciting news! I have started working on a new cryptocurrency metric: a quantitative metric used to determine the investor confidence of the market. Honestly I haven’t checked if such a metric exists yet, perhaps I am just re-inventing the wheel. It’s not the “Bitcoin Misery Index” (I’m using a very different method to what Thomas Lee uses) – but it will give similar results. Either way I’m still busy developing it – learning (mostly by trial and error) the right formulas to use in Google Sheets to make it work. Hopefully I will have it finished soon – I’ll be sure to show you the results when (if?) I do finish!

Back to BTC:

While the ever-fickle media with its goldfish-duration memory is certainly suddenly bullish again, I caution against becoming bullish too fast. The charts below will show you why.

BTC has been in a channel for about a month. Back in this post of 16 July, I identified the top of the channel, but the bottom had yet to be formed, so I took it as a pennant instead.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/btc-11-july/

This made me bullish on BTC in the medium-term, though I soon found out that my pennant was not a pennant at all. Strangely, this has no affect on my medium-term projections for BTC.

Later on BTC dipped, thereby forming a channel, which I then indicated in my 23 July postwhere I concluded that BTC may be forming a Bull Flag.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

While BTC has not dipped all the way back down to the bottom of that flag/channel, it has also not yet broken free of it.

Here is BTC today:

As you can clearly see on the chart above, BTC is at a turning point. Either it can breakout of the channel and climb, or it can dip sharply back downwards. I will only turn bullish if BTC breaks out of the top of channel and stays out for a day or more. Obviously this is short-term bullish, in the medium and long-terms I am bullish thanks to the bull flag and to the fundamentals of BTC respectively.

Should BTC fail to breakout, then the rejection dip should look something similar to this:

The bottom of the channel also coincides nicely with an already-consolidated support/resistance level in the mid-$7000s to mid-$8000s region. This will provide strong support and should prevent BTC from breaking through the bottom of the channel if it does head back in that direction.

Having said that: take note that similar price movement patterns in 2017 did sometimes end in a flash crash, followed by an equally rapid recovery (the crash and recovery taking only 2 to 3 days in total). The chart below from “Bitcoin – possible next moves” illustrates what I am talking about. See that post for more details and further examples.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

Summary:

If BTC does breakout within the next day or two, then we may well see an new 2019 BTC high this week. The next most likely option is that it will drop down to the bottom of the channel – still remaining within the confines of the Bull Flag and buoyed by the consolidation which took place in May/June.

Percentage allocation for possible future BTC price movement:

  • BTC breaks out of the top of the channel: 35%
  • BTC heads back down to the bottom of the channel, or perhaps the 0.786 retracement level (as it did last time): 30%
  • BTC heads back down and breaks through the bottom of the channel: 10%
  • Something else (e.g. Sideways movement, movement along diagonal Fib lines): 25%

Yours in crypto
Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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