Unusual Options Activity In Boeing

They say the measure of a man’s character is not determined by how he handles his wins, but how he handles his failures.  And so I give a lot of credit to the CEO of Boeing, CEO Dennis Muilenburg.  He dealing with the aftermath of not one, but two fatal Boeing plane crashes that happen within a span of six months.

In March, an Ethiopian Airlines crashed killing 149 passengers and eight crew members on board shortly after takeoff. The incident was the second deadly crash of the new Boeing planes in less than five months. A Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX 8 plunged into the Java Sea shortly after taking off from Jakarta in October, killing all 189 people on board.

The culprit, Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), suspected of reacting to errant sensor data, the solution, a software update. Today, all 737MAX 8 planes around the world remain grounded.

The CEO thinks by the fourth quarter Boeing will have a software fix and the 737MAX 8 planes will be in service again.  There’s only one issue, while actually two.  Boeing is running out of time in maintaining investor confidence and they are running out of 737MAX8 storage room.  To maintain investor confidence, Boeing decided to cut the production rate from 52 to 42 737MAX8s.  But one solution created another problem.  As planes are being built, there is no place to store them.

And now Boeing has been forced to resort to some creative storage places, like the employee parking lot.

Although the CEO remains confident, the Smart Money begs to differ. Yesterday I noticed some bearish unusual option activity where the Smart Money bought almost 7500 of the October put options with a strike price at $275. 

This means the Smart Money thinks Boeing has more downside.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Capital One reports data breach affecting 100m customers

Capital
One reports data breach affecting 100m customers (The WSJ)

  • Capital One, the 5th largest US credit card issuer, confirmed on Monday that a hacker accessed the personal information of around 106m card customers & applicants, in one of the largest data breaches of a big “bank”.
  • The bulk of the exposed data related to information submitted by customers and small businesses that applied for Capital One credit cards between 2005 & early 2019. It appears that the breach occurred as long ago as late March 2019, and that it was found by a so called white hat hacker, who emailed Capital One about the leak.
  • Capital One was an enthusiastic adaptor of the cloud for data storage, with the process of shifting all data to AWS due to be completed by 2020.
  • The data hacked apparently included social security numbers, bank account numbers, credit scores & payment histories but not credit card numbers.

Analysis and Comments

  • There was some early speculation that as the hacker had previously worked at AWS, that the hack might have come from there, but more recent filings by the FBI suggest that the Capital One data breach was the result of a configuration vulnerability in the Capital One system.
  • The Capital One breach came just days after credit reporting agency Equifax announced a c. $700m settlement with a number of US government agencies regarding their data breach  FTC blog on Equifax settlement. The settlement includes a sum of up to $425m for the c. 147m customers that were potentially impacted by the breach announced in Sept 2017.
  • Capital One was quoted as saying that they would make provision for costs of c. $100-$150m in 2019 to cover the notification of customers, credit monitoring & technology & legal costs. Although if the Equifax settlement is anything to go by this might not be all they end up spending.
  • According to the FT, news of the breach sent the shares of Capital One down 5.9% – a big move but not massive. This suggests to us that some investors are starting to view these breaches and the subsequent costs and fines, as just being a “cost of doing business”.
  • This approach may end up being risky. In the US, there have been increasing calls for more regulation of the way financial institutions protect their customers data Credit agencies must change how they manage data. Some commentators have drawn parallels with the European GDPR structure, where penalties of up to 4% of global turnover (up to E20m) can be imposed for breaches in processes around how client data is handled EU GDPR rules. In addition, much larger fines, such as the notice of intent to fine BA for a large data breach in 2018 ICO to fine BA £183m.
  • Consumers are increasingly looking to transact online – as more industries go digital, especially via the cloud, this is an issue that is going to take up more investor attention.

Capital One Stock Price

Volatility…..It’s BBBAACCCKKKK

The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX aka the stock market fear gauge, is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility implied.

Devesh Shah, an applied mathematician and hedge fund manager who formerly worked for Goldman Sachs, was one of the creators of the CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX is quoted in percentage points and is the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, with a 68% probability. VIX values greater than 30 represent investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 represent complacent in the Markets.

Source

Just in the past week, we have seen Fed Powell cut US interest rates in attempt to keep the party going, President Trump issue more tariffs on Chinese goods, 900 DOW stock plunge and what appears to be the start of a currency war.

Experts say there could be lots more bad news to come for stocks this month beyond Monday’s big selloff. That’s because August is typically the year’s weakest month for U.S. equities.

Stock Trader’s Almanac Editor Jeffrey Hirsh blames the month’s historically weak performance woes on summer vacations that take investors’ eyes off of the market. “Everyone is in the Hamptons, out playing golf or in the backyard with the kids,” he said. “So, you get a vacuum of lower volumes, and the path of least resistance is down.”

LPL Financial found that while the S&P 500 hasn’t fallen every August, in the years that it’s done so since 1990, losses have averaged 4.6% — the worst showing for any month during that period.

Source

So any one long the Equity Markets or who have family members with IRAs and/or 401ks, buy some protection and hedge your hard earn dollars.  One way to hedge your portfolio is to buy VIX call options if you think volatility in the Markets are going to increase over the next 3-6 months.

And the newest alternative at our disposal as a hedge, is to buy BITCOIN.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crypto Contest August 6: Prometeus

Prometeus (Bittrex: PROMBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Prometeus began a wave one advance on July 16. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 22, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 29. If this wave count is correct, Prometeus should be heading next towards the July 22 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Prometeus is a Blockchain & AI enhanced ecosystem for the people owned data markets. BlockchainBrad interviewed one of the team members back in June this year.

(Sources: Prometeus and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

🗞 Daily Crypto News, August, 6th💰

  • US Federal Reserve Launching Payment System ;
  • Litecoin Just Halved Its Crypto Rewards for Miners ;
  • A Battle Between Bitcoin Wallets Has Big Implications for Privacy ;
  • Doubling up on STEEM! Reasons and Thoughts ;
  • North Korea Stole $2 Billion in Cryptocurrency From Exchanges, Says UN ;
  • 📑 Daily Crypto Calendar, August, 6th💰
  • STEEM Trading Update

Welcome to the Daily Crypto News: A complete Press Review, Coin Calendar and Trading Analysis. Enjoy!

🗞 US Federal Reserve Launching Payment System

The United States Federal Reserve Board is planning to release a real-time payments and settlements service in order to boost the payments infrastructure in the country.


A press release published on Aug. 5 reads that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has requested that Federal Reserve Banks develop a new interbank real-time settlement service to support faster payments in the U.S. The payment system is called FedNow and will purportedly launch in 2023 or 2024.


By launching FedNow, the Fed aims to modernize the country’s payment system with a real-time service that can transfer funds around the clock and on weekends and weekdays. The service will purportedly be available to both businesses and the general public.

🗞 Litecoin Just Halved Its Crypto Rewards for Miners

Litecoin (LTC), currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has just reduced its block reward for miners by half.


The litecoin blockchain reached the trigger block height of 1,680,000 at 10:16 UTC on Monday, according to the litecoin explorer from mining pool operator BTC.com.


The event marks a major threshold for miners, as the litecoin network is designed to reduce its mining rewards by half every 840,000 blocks (roughly every four years).

For this “halving,” the mining reward for every block has been reduced from the previous 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC

🗞 A Battle Between Bitcoin Wallets Has Big Implications for Privacy

Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai announced last Thursday that its primary competitor, Wasabi Wallet, is the target of an ongoing network attack.


The blog post is the latest in a string of allegations Samourai has leveled against Wasabi since mid-July.
The attack, according to Samourai Wallet, resembles a Sybil attack, where a small number of users falsifies new identities and pretends to be much larger in number. This would mean that the anonymity set, or crowd, in which a user can hide their bitcoin transactions is not actually as large as Wasabi suggests.


“As the Wasabi team has described it, the goal of the Wasabi mixing technique, is to hide your [unspent transaction outputs] in a ‘sufficiently’ large crowd (peers),” Samourai wrote in its blog post. “The current target Anonymity Set in Wasabi mixing is 100 peers.”

🗞 Doubling up on STEEM! Reasons and Thoughts

Here is a quick post to tell you that I am doubling up on STEEM. One of the reasons is HF21 (find all the info from @steemitblog‘s post here) but this is neither the only one or the most important.

I think HF21 has its flows, yes it redistributes more to SP holder, but through this it will bring more investors, therefore more Buying pressure and a better STEEM Price I Believe.

More curation rewards also means more attention spent by SP Holder to curate content of quality. This would be beneficial to the entire STEEM Community.

In the end, what is the point to have 75% of your posts STEEM rewards / SBD if they are valued at a few cents, wouldn’t it be better to have 50% of a post valued a few $$$?

Full post Here

🗞 North Korea Stole $2 Billion in Cryptocurrency From Exchanges, Says UN

UN: Hacked crypto funds weapons of mass destruction


In a confidential report acquired by mainstream media outlets including Reuters on Aug. 5, the U.N. Security Council North Korea sanctions committee said that hackers formed an essential part of government funding. 


“Democratic People’s Republic of Korea cyber actors, many operating under the direction of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, raise money for its WMD (weapons of mass destruction) programs, with total proceeds to date estimated at up to two billion US dollars,” Reuters quoted the report as stating.

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📑 Daily Crypto Calendar, August, 6th💰

The Litecoin block mining reward halves every 840,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins.

On August, 6th Deex launches the closed testing campaign of decentralized messenger for iOS devices.

AUX launches a new version of the website and updates social media by August 6th.

“We invite you to join an #AMA with our new partner, #nOS (@nOSplatform)… 5PM UTC (17:00 UTC) in $ARK’s Slack!”

“Join members of the SDF partnerships team tomorrow, Tuesday, August 6 for a free online workshop for Stellar developers.”

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STEEM Trading Update by my friend @cryptopassion

Here is the chart of yersterday :

STEEMUSD.jpg

Here is the current chart :

STEEMUSD.jpg

So after the confirmation of the break yesterday, the STEEM is now waiting just under the line which is now a resistance line. It is not a bad news and we could have a big drop due to the break but I think that the nice UP of the BTC is helping us to don’t drop. Let’s see what will happen soon. The BTC cound correct quiet soon and it could be the excuse for the STEEM to continue its drop.

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Last Updates

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Join this new Free To Play on the STEEM Platform !

Festival Floating man 15.-17. of August

We would like to invite you to our first Liberland Music Festival

The first Floating Man Music Festival (and the official wedding of Vladan and Silvia) is set to take place at Cora Airport, located only ten km away from Liberland.

The whole Saturday will be spent on the water, visiting Liberland with different ships, boats and even smaller vessels. It’s a great opportunity to see the construction of Floating.ll.land as well the Free Trade Zone in the port of Apatin. 

Learning from the best experience of events like Burning Man or Ephemerisle, we are bringing something new to Europe and the Balkans. Principles like self-reliance and high regard for the environment reflect the spirit of the event.

You can also meet Liberland artists, thinkers and best musicians and in addition to visiting Liberland from skies or by boat. Side events include a presentation of Liberland Flight Academy, our soccer team, and our chess team. Music experience will include some of the best Liberland DJs and jazz performers. We are looking forward to hosting Varhan Orchestrovič Bauer, the famous composer of Liberland’s anthem. 

Your event ticket is included with the purchase of Liberland e-Residency. Accommodations can be arranged in one of the nearby hotels or directly on the spot with tents which will be available for sale. 

Link to our facebook event.

Roadmaps are Great – Just Don’t Believe Them

Crypto is an exciting market and offers a host of opportunities to the ‘engaged’ investor. However, the space does exhibit its own peculiarities, some of which complicate the process of successfully investing in the asset class.

There are over-arching investment rules and there are those that apply more specifically to crypto. Research is an example of a shared investment process across all assets classes. However, there is one area where blockchain diverges somewhat from other assets – timelines.

Crypto is replete with glossy websites sporting detailed timelines, with a neat line of progress highlighting all that we have to look forward to in the coming quarters and years.

https://cardanoroadmap.com/


Rule of thumb – Crypto Project Timelines are Wildly Optimistic

They are guidelines only. All those shiny development points/partnerships/roll-outs etc. are conceptual in nature and the only thing you can take for granted is that as a rule: they will be missed, over-promised and under-delivered. Generally, there’s absolutely no point asking the Telegram admins about roadmap deadlines because they know about as much as you do.


Crypto projects are essentially software start-ups. As such, they face a number of specific challenges.

a) Software development – the broad strokes of a blockchain may indeed flow quickly but as with most things – the devil is in the details. As blockchain involves the storing and transacting of value such details inevitably slow down development even if the team has the necessary talent to deliver on their promises.
The last leg of software development is the most demanding as any bug can undo the whole network. This partially explains why most projects seem close to hitting roadmap release but just don’t quite get there …again and again and again.

The more decentralized the chain the longer any developments are likely to take. This complicates investor project assessment as centralized coins can seem to be pulling ahead of their more distributed brethren when, in fact, it is only their limitations that allow the appearance of progress.

b) Partnerships – a blockchain in a vacuum is hardly a revenue generator – partnerships and many of them are required in order to generate network effects and revenue streams. Such deals almost always take longer than expected. Remember an announcement of a partnership does not a partnership make -it is only the first step in a long and often winding road.

c) Regulatory hurdles – blockchains cross borders and often have global reach with that come a host of regulatory issues that need to be addressed. Given the lack of clarity re blockchain regulations in most jurisdictions – substantial delays are all but inevitable.


Realistic Adjusted Timeline for Blockchain Roadmaps

I use the following sliding scale when assessing project promises and roadmaps:

Decentralized projects such as BTC and ETH add 2 to 3 years to any proposed change or improvement.

Semi-decentralized projects such as EOS add 1 year to any ‘official’ roll-out.

Centralized projects such as Ripple add 6 months to any timeline.

Of course, even these adjusted timelines will often end up being entirely too optimistic but it should help make more ‘realistic’ investment decisions.


Examples of how an adjusted time preference might help you as an investor:

Buying Ethereum because it is set to scale in 6 months seems a lot less attractive if you change that to 2 to 3 years. ETH is substantially decentralized – changes cannot be pushed through – delay, debate, and slow implementation are to be expected and planned for. In practical terms, this has led me to hold off on accumulating ETH (aside from small-dollar cost average purchases) until it retraces substantially – a retracement which seems likely as investors lose patience with the slow pace of development.


Assessing the value proposition of Bitcoin with the underlying understanding of its inherently slow development precisely because it is actually decentralized takes the gloss off a lot of centralized, corporate-driven pseudo-cryptos like XRP. The realization that BTC changes very slowly and is designed to do so makes it a lot easier to hold over the long-term as your expectations for change now more closely match the asset itself. BTC has done a much better job of communicating its decentralized nature in comparison to ETH – likely leading to far less disillusionment with its inherently slow pace of development.


Remember this?

Realizing the even a 4 billion dollar war-chest and a team of over 100 developers doesn’t result in met deadlines could have saved you a lot of money as was the case with EOS. After months of hype on June 1st, they announced Voice – which it soon emerged couldn’t be deployed until the rollout of a network upgrade – that upgrade being scheduled for the end of September (at the earliest).

Effectively, they held an event the central showcase of which won’t go live until the end of the year – if everything goes to plan. This information was slow in coming resulting in a long slow bleed-out of EOS value.


In summary, roadmaps and project promises are guidelines – almost always too optimistic in terms of both delivery and effect – invest with these dual realities in mind.

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