A(nother) word on Bitcoin ETFs

The market is definitely maturing its way out of FUD – an excellent sign for upcoming growth!

I don’t always get the short-term calls right, but man am I good at the long-term ones – the ones which are really important to investors!

The last two Bitcoin ETF applications were withdrawn this week (by CBOE and SolidX) due to the US government shutdown (allegedly). What happened to Bitcoin when they withdrew?

Nothing.

This is in stark contrast to the immature and frankly rather clueless 2018 market.

Do you remember the effect that any ETF news had on BTC in 2018? Any statement from the SEC,

BITCOIN: Price projection using Bars Pattern. Just for Fun… :-)

Using BITCOIN Weekly Chart, Log Scale.Applying tool “Bars Pattern” of the previous BEAR/BULL Market, period from November 25th 2013 till December 18th 2017

Assuming End of Previous BEAR Market by end of August 2015Fitting and adjusting “Peak to Peak” with the summit of the last Bull (December 18th 2017):

Conclusions:

Still a lower low would be expected. “Simulation” of the “Bars Pattern” indicates 2548 USD as the lowest point.A “Consolidation” period of 7 to 8 months would be expected.Start of A Bull Market September 2019322.000 USD by the end of 2021…in the meantime, lots of Dapps, crypto projects and adoption coming…

Will you have the patience to

BTC 24 Jan – a change of direction

As I promised in my post of 22 Jan “Once I have better information I will publish an update in this regard (if necessary). “I have better information. You’re reading that update.

You can see my previous BTC post here: BTC 22 Jan – Medium-term updateIn it I proposed two possible scenarios: A drop to lower price levels or a modification to the tapering triangle we were in, resulting in a later price breakout.

In that post the price had just dropped through the bottom of the previous triangle, but not definitively so. For further details on those scenarios, see

Crypto Shopping Cart – 23 Jan

It has not been long since my last crypto shopping trip, but with such cheap prices persisting, I’m still taking any opportunity to add a little to my altcoin holdings.

I keep saying that people should be buying altcoins, and to show that I put my money where my mouth is, I’ll show you what I’ve just bought. You’ll also be able to see if I follow my own buying recommendations or not! Quite a few coins in this post were mentioned in the post Crypto market signals stability on 20 Jan.

From www.pexels.com

Funding the buys

This was a bitter-sweet round of buying if ever there was one! Still having

BITCOIN: We need some more volume…

Finally, BITCOIN has completed the last 5th…and it has been done in a very accelerated way as I wrote yesterday. So high that it all has happened in a matter of 10 minutes. Let me show you the BTC/USD chart in the 5′ timeframe:

That is, a sudden and sharp sell reaching the Target Support (remember I wrote yesterday 3430 USD) follow by a continuous “Flow” of equivalent Buy orders (BOT?) triggering afterwards successive another more “human style” buy orders…

As a consequence, watching now the 1h-chart, the movement upwards has over-passed the previous level which indicates that BTC is probably out

BTC 22 Jan – Medium-term update

BTC broke out of my previous converging triangle. What does that mean?
In my post of 15 Jan, I published a converging triangle and spoke of an impeding breakout. This was the main image I used in that post and its follow-up post on 18 Jan:
After entering the “Breakout Zone” BTC broke out in a downwards direction. This presents a small problem because the breakout wasn’t definitive: yes it left the triangle, but not by much (as seen below).    
I now see two possible scenarios:
 
Scenario 1: Lower BTC prices
BTC may drop lower yet again – probably to one of

BITCOIN: Equal Patterns = Equal Results?

Another day of tiny volume, drafting what people is starting to call another “Bart” pattern, this time inverted.
Actually, if we want to be more rigorous with the TA and Pattern Recognition nomenclature this is what is called as Bear Flag… again…
Flags or pennants used to indicate a sudden acceleration of the price, it could be upwards or downwards but, since it is placed at then of a long candle down it is more likely that the acceleration would occur by tthe same direction, downwards…
Also, I feel it must be downwards since the EW-count still has some room to add a

BITCOIN: This is the EW count on play…

I have to make reference here to my post published on January 15th, called “BITCOIN: Current Possibilities”.

There, I planned two scenarios, depending if the 5th wave was already completed or not…

Well, what it seems now is that the previous 4th wave formation has lasted 5 days to complete and what we are seeing right now is the final 5th wave down…as an extended wave.

The target support 1 has been crossed by the price, reaching resistance at the same level of wave (3) and creating a double bottom which is a good sign of recovery but, the (5)th wave down

Crypto market signals stability

Whereas investor confidence was wavering and unpredictable during the 2018 bear market, 2019 is showing us a stable market which has so far supported sustainable growth.

From a bullish perspective this is a positive sign – and one which is hardly surprising. For the past year I have been attacking bearish sentiment on all fronts: the inane mentality that sells a long-term hold for short-term profit (akin to selling Microsoft shares in the early ’80s), negative sentiment towards crypto – a disruptive revolution in international finance, the total disregard of a plethora of positive and substantial 2018 crypto news etc.

I’ve given

When a Bullish Market?

…or better said, by when the reversal will be confirmed?

Honestly, I do not know with certainty but I can share with you what I think are really good and simple tools to assess this point:

The Crypto Total Market Cap, in a Daily timeframeThe 200 DMA lineThe “Volume Flow Indicator” by LazyBear

Essentially, the Market is in a Bearish Trend when, the 200 DMA keeps located above “Total Market candle Line” and the “Volume Flow Indicator” [VFI] keeps below the “0” line separating two scenarios.

So, to confirm the reversal trend we should have to see first, an “approach” of the “VFI”