Please click the link below to listen to the 51st episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week we explore Austrian economics – a core pillar underlying the economic worldview of most Bitcoin advocates. As a crypto enthusiast, you’ve likely noticed that Austrian economics is frequently referenced, in particular, by Bitcoin maximalists. So, what exactly are they referring to? What follows is an extremely simplified overview of the Austrian school of economic thought. It is also not an unequivocal endorsement as my personal view lies somewhere between the Keynesian-Austrian models.
The main beliefs of the Austrian School of economics can be summarized into five areas:
Laissez-faire economics – a strong belief in the primacy of free markets viewing government regulations and interventions in markets as an inefficient negative. This extends to a belief that all government programs such as infrastructure spending, social welfare, and public healthcare are inherently wasteful.
A rejection of the Keynesian model of fiscal policy which involves the creation of fiat by governments in order to support spending programs and stimulate the economy.
A related rejection of the role and actions of central banks in both the printing of fiat money and the setting of interest rates in order to balance, promote or reduce inflation. In addition, Austrian economists are sharply critical of the fractional reserve banking system which utilizes debt to promote economic growth.
Support of a return to a gold standard or in the case of crypto adherents, the adoption of Bitcoin as a new standard and or global currency. Key to this is the removal of the ability of the state to ‘create’ money. Sound sovereign money may be said to be the heart of the belief system most Bitcoin maximalists espouse.
A belief that market recessions are in large part caused by central bank interest rate manipulation – inverting the relationship commonly stated by central banks where it is the looming recession itself that causes the change of rates.
Bitcoin advocates would argue that BTC is deflationary in nature. Its supply is limited, its issue known and dependable and critically, its supply lies outside the control of any state or body. Austrian economics and Bitcoin maximalism are natural co-concepts. It is extremely difficult to be both a Bitcoin supporter and a proponent of Keynesian economics.
As to other cryptocurrencies, it is far more debatable whether they offer a viable alternative to fiat currencies. If they are centrally controlled, then the possibility of supply being open to manipulation is orders of magnitude higher than BTC.
If you are interested in learning more about the Austrian school of economics as it relates to crypto, I highly recommend you read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous.
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
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…drank a couple of beers during lunchtime, just to avoid a drastic change on my psychological integrity ;-)…
By the way, I have to say and certify that Bitvavo works excellently.
The process of signing, verifying, transfering FIAT and buying STEEM have been done very fast and without problem.
Also, as I wrote in the title, I have spent 50 Euros, transferred directly from my Bank Account via SEPA, buying 301 STEEM this morning…
The fee has been minuscule (0.13 Euro) in my opinion, 0.25% which is peanuts!
If you are an EU resident and you want to buy or sell STEEM without having to buy first BTC or ETH or even use the Blocktrades conversions, you should try BITVAVO .
These 300 STEEM are planned to be powered up in my account but, since I expect to have some nice movements in the price of STEEM these days due to the HF21, which is coming tomorrow, for the moment, I am going to keep them at BITVAVO, just in case I can take some advantage :-)…
From https://old.trybe.one/archives/btc-beginning-of-the-week-analysis/
But the price movements of the last few days are indicating that a channel (or possible flag) may not be the correct way to view BTC at the moment.
Instead, BTC now looks to be limited by the rising base of a converging triangle, as opposed to the descending base of a channel:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Scenarios:
The triangle itself is neither inherently bullish nor bearish, so in isolation it tells us nothing about the direction of future price movements. What it does do is give us a time: soon. Price is already in the breakout zone of the triangle, and should breakout any time between now and mid-September.
Previously I was of the opinion that the channel was probably part of a larger bull flag pattern.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:
Since these two patterns predict the same bullish outcome, this doesn’t fundamentally change my medium-term outlook. This may make a difference to those trading the pattern, but as my blogging is generally geared towards investors, I consider that to be beyond the scope of this post. If you are a trader, then take a look at the posts or videos of an analyst such as Working2005 who regularly discusses crypto trading.
For my part I am not ready to see this “2019 bull run” continue yet. As I discussed in my recent “Crypto Market Cycles” series, I am still expecting a drop before we have another rise. This is somewhat contrary to what a bull pennant may indicate, but I have my reasons for saying so.
Volume is declining slowly but steadily, which puts BTC at risk of a sudden drop. Such a drop would tie in nicely with the information I discussed in “Crypto Market Cycles”, where I showed BTC to be trading at a higher price than what we would expect for a low-hype market:
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/crypto-market-cycles-part-2/
I addition to this, I still believe that the current price movement (of the last couple of months) strongly resembles those of 2017:
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
…meaning that a strong and sudden dip could well occur soon. I am expecting such a dip. It is only after such a dip that I expect prices to climb again – as predicted by a bull pennant. This won’t necessarily be a “bull run” per se – just the following of the general BTC base trendline further upwards.
The bull run has yet to come…
Yours in crypto Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” ~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” ~ Bit Brain
Like every other economy in the world, the Japanese economy is slowing down. But the Japan has one competitive advantage over most countries. Japan is a very large exporter. Now you might say China is a large exporter as well. But Japan has been one for many decades and as a result, has become the largest net creditor to the world. So during times of uncertain, capital flows out of other currencies and into the Japanese yen, causing it to strengthen. This is way the Yen is considered a safe haven currency.
With continued rife between the US and China, an inverted yield curve in the US, negative German bond rates, the Brexit deadline fast approaching, I remain super bullish on the Japanese Yen. Lets go to the charts to see where the Yen might be headed next.
Monthly Chart (Curve Timeframe) – monthly supply is at 0.0103 and monthly demand at 0.00805.
Weekly Chart (Trend Timeframe) – the trend is sideways with upside momentum.
Daily Chart (Entry) – the chart suggests to go long if and once price breaches the the daily supply at 0.00953.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
But just by having a look at the @steemit account and its “operational” withdrawing account , aka @gsr-io, at Steemworld I think I get reason why.
@steemit haven’t stopped powering down… actually is transferring a big amount of liquid steem to @gsr-io , as usual, very regularly which is currently “storing” around 600000 Liquid Steem but…
You know what?
The last withdrawing operation straight to the exchanges from that account, @gsr-io , was placed on August the 12th…
No more transfers since then, and this is a great NEW because the frequency of these operations were set at least on a weekly basis if not in less time…
Consequences? Selling pressure is relaxing, people is buying maybe because Hardfork21 is approaching and that could create some expectatives…but the most important is that they stop selling…for the moment, remember that there are around 600000 Steem at the “Launching” account and around 2M Liquid Steem more ready to be transferred…
I hope they will keep for some days more the selling pressure low…however, they are not fools at all…
Back form holidays but still not working since we are on the weekend but, finally I have time to analyze the Daily BITCOIN chart in a more accurate manner. I have redone my EW-count and I think I found an structure that will fit with the current situation.
The structure is a Bouble Combo Correction (WXY) which is composed by the combination of three main Legs:
W Leg: Can be any Zig-zag or Flat correction
X Leg: Can be any Zig-zag, Flat , triangle or combo as well
Y Leg: Can be a Zig-zag, Flat or a Triangle
Only one triangle is allowed and it can be formed either on X or in Y but not in both. If it was the case that two triangles were formed at X and Y, the pattern would be different (Double Zig-Zag) with different results, so since the X leg is a ZIG-ZAG, a triangle may be formed on the Y Leg…or not :-)..
So, in my opinion there are two main scenarios in order to end the correction:
Y leg ending in a pure Flat Correction: Level of price would be similar or slightly below “W” , i.e. around 9000 USD as the main known support
Y leg is a triangle which will push the price lower, in search of the inclined blue line, i.e. 7600 USD
Looks like September is going to be an excellent month for the whole Crypto Market.
@toofasteddie
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
While drinking rates are declining globally, particularly among young people, in the UK, baby boomers (aged 55-64) remain the most likely to drink heavily and are the least likely to abstain from drinking alcohol.
The universal decline may therefore be more of a polarisation around drinking, with the decline of overall consumption levels potentially masking on-going heavy drinking among some young people and particularly older ones.
In the UK, the 4% of the population who drink the most heavily are responsible for c. 30% of all alcohol purchases, and alcohol-related deaths as well as hospital admissions are growing significantly in recent years.
Analysis and Comments
It is estimated that over 20% of the population does not drink at all, and its c. 30% for people under 24 (the data is not very precise). It is also estimated that c. 4% of the population drink around 30% of the alcohol consumed and that these consumers make up c.25% of industry profits. In addition, and perhaps more worryingly, deaths related to alcohol misuse are the highest in a decade, with related hospital admissions up 67%.
The implications are fairly stark for Beverages companies – in Western markets we should expect a continuing shift away from consumption of mass market beer, toward premium beer, wine & spirits. This is not necessarily bad news for drinks companies, they have been repositioning themselves for this shift for some time. Plus emerging markets consumption is still rising and the trend toward premium (i.e. more profitable) drinks continues.
