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Currency Analysis Report 7/23/19 – I Think EUR/CHF Is Going To Parity

July 23, 2019 Published by

Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan is facing a new wall of pressure that could force him to push the world’s lowest central bank interest rate even lower.

The franc is already at the strongest in two years, and likely to move higher as the European Central Bank outlines plans for loosening. A dramatic shift toward parity could even prompt surprise action by Jordan before the next scheduled meeting in September. That’s something he’s not been afraid to do before, notably in 2015 with the shock decision to scrap the cap on the franc.

Source

The interests rate that the Swiss is pay in a minus 0.75%.  This means that you actually lose money if you deposit money in their banks.  However, the Franc safe haven status outweighs the negative interest rates given the stability of the Swiss government and its financial system.   Thus, when the global markets turn down, the Swiss franc tends to appreciate.

Which is why I’m still bullish the Swiss Franc, despite potential continued cuts in their interest rates because other central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, so it all relative and the global markets are slowing and eventually will turn.

European central banks have cut rates to history lows

It won’t be easy for the EUR/CHF to get to parity (1.000) as there are many level where buyers are waiting to battle the sellers, but I think the war will be eventually won by the seller.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Nestle is betting on The “Healthy Food” and “Ecology” Trends !

July 23, 2019 Published by

Nestle
to sell a chocolate made without added sugar (CNBC)

  • Nestlé is about to launch a new 70% dark chocolate
    bar, the “Cacao Fruit Chocolate”, which does not include any added
    sugar    .
  • It
    will be made from the cacao fruit only, with the white cacao pulp acting as a
    natural, more sustainable and healthy sweetener. The new product will be
    launched in Japan this autumn and is expected to be introduced globally by
    2020.
  • Another
    100% cacao fruit juice with lime granita will be commercialised end of this
    week at the KitKat Chocolatory Ginza Store. The two products will be sold at
    $3.7 and $6.93, respectively.
  • The company
    is looking to patent the pulp mixture process    , which helps to reduce food waste, as it uses 31% of
    the pod vs. the current 22%.

Analysis and Comments

  • You should expect a continued increase in product reformulations and product innovations along the lines of Nestlé’s most recent launch.
  • This is largely driven by a combination of pressure coming from both the public as well as a growing number of governments and regulators, the latter of which are increasingly aware of the strain that obesity & diabetes is putting on global healthcare systems.
  • Already, diabetes care forms 10-15% of healthcare budgets, and Healthcare analysts expect a near doubling of the number of diabetes patients by 2025, which risks bankrupting publically funded healthcare programmes in Europe and making health insurance increasingly unaffordable.

Nestlé develops recyclable paper packaging for Yes snack bars (SupplyChainDive)

  • Nestlé
    has developed a high-speed flow
    packaging technology     that allows paper to be used on a larger scale instead
    of plastic films and laminates. As a result, Nestlé will sell its Yes snack
    bars in a recyclable paper wrapper.
  • The
    packaging, made of water-based coating and sustainable sources, is available in
    13 countries and will be introduced in Europe and other locations going
    forward.
  • Nestlé
    has been committed to make all its
    product packaging recyclable or reusable by 2025    , and other manufacturers
    (e.g. PepsiCo, Nestlé, Mars) have launched recyclable packaging programs as
    well.
  • According
    to Reuters, the company may also use paper packaging for its Kit Kat bars and
    other products, once it is able to
    supply sufficient amounts of the specially coated paper.

Analysis and Comments

  • As the article states, consumers’ demand for sustainable and environmental standards in the food industry has been increasing steadily, with a Nielsen survey from 2018 stating that 48% of U.S. consumers were likely to change their purchases to meet environmental standards.

Nestle Share Price

Overhead Caution On Nvidia

July 23, 2019 Published by

The bullish investing thesis on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the current leader in GPUs, is pretty clear. GPUs work better than CPUs for artificial intelligence applications and as a result, the chip maker — and NVDA stock — seem well positioned in a market with what is essentially huge growth potential.

Due to its exposure to AI, NVDA stock will benefit from numerous secular growth trends in autonomous driving, big data, medical diagnostics, and more that could help lift sales and profits rise over time.

To keep its leading market share and meet bullish expectations, Nvidia will need to innovate and make better products than anyone else. Due to the uncertainty of how those products will be received, Nvidia stock has been subject to sentiment shifts. As a result of the shifts, the NVDA stock price has fallen from its late 2018 highs but is still up 23% year to date. Given the rally in 2019, is the stock a good buy now?

Source

There has been a lot of chatter on Wall Street that the semiconductors have bottomed. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors, recently beat analyst estimates and signaled a rebound from the current chip down cycle.

If price is going to get to $200, it must get through this band of support / resistance.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Bitcoin – possible next moves

July 23, 2019 Published by

 

Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy

Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.

As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.

 

Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:

 

Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.

 

My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.

Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.

 

Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:

 

And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:

 

…and similar patterns from earlier times too.

 

The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.

Summary:

I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.

I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.

I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.

Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:

  1. BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
  2. My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
 
 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





Crypto Contest July 23: Revain

July 23, 2019 Published by

Revain (HitBTC: RBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Revain began a wave one advance on June 26. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 2, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 21. If this wave count is correct, Revain should be heading next towards the July 2 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Revain is a review platform built with blockchain technology. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Revain and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Halliburton Is Setting Up For A Short

July 23, 2019 Published by

Halliburton issued their second-quarter earnings report today.  The beat the expectations on earnings, but was short expectations on sales.

“International revenue increased 6% sequentially, confirming our expectation of high single-digit international growth for all of 2019. Momentum is building internationally and activity improvement should continue into 2020,” said eff Miller, Chairman, President and CEO. “Both of our divisions made meaningful contributions to growing North America revenue and margins in the second quarter. We are successfully executing our strategy of controlling what we can control and managing our business to perform well in any market conditions.”

Source

That was enough for the stock to receive a couple of upgrades.  Citigroup’s Scott Gruber reiterated a Buy rating and $33 price target and Stephens analyst Tommy Moll reiterated an Overweight rating and $45 price target on the stock, highlighting Halliburton’s ability to deliver “higher margins in North America despite macro headwinds.”

But here’s the problem, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is lagging the S&P 500,

and Halliburton is lagging the XLE

Although oil has risen since January lows, it’s still below $60.  Thus, there isn’t a lot of incentive for the producers to produce because they are marginally making a profit, so don’t have a lot of need for the service companies such as Halliburton.

Thus, despite the upgrades, the chart suggest to short Halliburton at the weekly supply at $25.25

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Are You Still Buying The Equity Bull Market???

July 22, 2019 Published by

The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite keep making new all-time highs.  So do you still believe in this Bull
Market???  If you do, well…you should because
we still are making higher highs vs. lower lows. But I want to give you some
food for thought to be careful.

Consumer discretionary to technology, cyclical stocks that typically associated with bull markets while in down turns or bear markets, consumer staples typically outperform.  However, both consumer discretionary and consumer staples sector are at all time highs…TOGETHER…HOW CAN THIS BE???

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (ETF), XLY

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (ETF) , XLP

With the US equity markets, consumer staples and consumer discretionary all all-time highs, something has to give because based on intermarket correlations, this doesn’t make any sense. This is when one has to dig a bit deeper.

 The consumer discretionary sector has consistently lagged the consumer staples sector ever since last year.

Source

For the bull market to continue to run, the discretionary sector must eventually outrun the staples or at some point we will see the equity markets start making lower highs, then lower lows.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

STEEM: a clear Double Bottom Pattern…

July 22, 2019 Published by

….and it would indicate something good for the price if STEEM wouldn’t have so much selling pressure from the wales and from @steemit in particular.

A double Bottom pattern is a Bullish Pattern that usually describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action. It is normally accompanied for a divergence in some of the technical indicators and this is what we see at RSI indicator on the daily chart:

RSI Indicator:

MACD Indicator:

… as I said, if it was any other ALTCOIN I would not have any doubt to claim BULLISH Action on it but we are talking about STEEM which is being really controlled from those that state that STEEM is a decentralized blockchain….

Will see what happens next…in the meantime, I would try to accumulate as much as possible.

@toofasteddie

Can Bulls Prevent a Knockout? Analyzing Bitcoin, LTC, ETH & Answering Your Questions

July 22, 2019 Published by

Bulls are still defending $10,000, but bears are attempting to land a knockout punch. Price dropped from $10,500 to $10,150 in less than 20 mins. Just another day in the crypto market.

Screen Shot 2019-07-22 at 11.07.18 AM.png

In today’s video I’ll analyze Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum. We’ll discuss the 4 hour death cross, where prices may be heading next, traps to avoid and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/22/19

July 22, 2019 Published by

When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin.  Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin. 

When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.

Source Image

Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.

Binance

EOS

Ethereum

Litecoin

Neo

Steem

Tron

Zcash

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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