Silver prices on surged more than 4% on Wednesday, this highest one day return in three years and in the process breached the key psychological $17 level.
although I’m very bullish on Gold,
but I think the red headed step child, Silver will perform better than Gold over the next several years. The gold/silver ratio is simply the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. And when this ratio hits 80, it reverses.
Since the mid-1990s, the ration has hit 80 four times. And when it reversed, silver outperformed gold over the next several years.
The Smart Money is recognizing what’s going on. They just bought over 85, 000 of the September call options, $17 strike price in SLV.
SLV is the iShares Silver Trust which seeks to reflect the performance of the price of silver. However, I think SLV is just beginning.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Click the tab below to listen to the 48th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Two Minute Crypto – Key Concepts 8 – Decentralization
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This instalment of the Key Concepts series focuses on explaining crypto decentralization and the challenge of achieving it. While decentralization can be a very nuanced reality across a wide range of important metrics this discussion will dwell on a high-level explanation of the term as generally used in the crypto space. It is certainly one of the key components to understanding the appeal and potential of blockchain.
When a cryptocurrency is described as decentralized the core of that claim is that it has no single point of failure and no over-arching authority. There is no controlling entity, no headquarters, no management team, no single set of servers or data repository and no- permission is required in order to use that crypto in any way an individual or business might choose. It is live in the wild and free – at once accessible and unassailable. You cannot shut down a distributed network precisely because it is very widely dispersed and easily propagated.
On paper, a decentralized network has obvious appeal. It is robust and inherently democratizing. Each participant in a decentralized network has the same set of ‘rights’ as every other user of that system and access to the network is permissionless -if you want to use it you can – there is no-one to ask and critically no individual with the power to deny you.
However, key to understanding decentralization in terms of crypto is an awareness of how incredibly difficult it is to achieve. Talk is cheap – the moniker of decentralized on the vast majority of blockchain projects is just a title – smoke and mirrors intended to gloss over a centralized reality.
At best, most crypto projects exhibit only one or two qualities of decentralization – they may be open-sourced or the network may be secured by thousands of distributed nodes. However, the vast majority of these projects are subject to points of failure. For example, there is a founder or founders who control development, or there is a small team of active developers who in reality drive the project without whom it would die. Perhaps the supply is controlled by a small number of individuals who effectively own the system or network validators are centrally appointed. To date, in reality, only a veneer of decentralization is achieved by the vast majority of projects.
The primary example of a decentralized crypto in practice is, of course, Bitcoin. There is no founder to target, no company, no centralized record keepers, permission to use is not required, supply is fixed and though development can and does take place it requires the acceptance of a majority of the distributed nodes for these proposals to actually be enacted on the mainchain.
However, even Bitcoin is an imperfect version of a decentralized network. Miners validate the currencies transactions; these miners tend to congregate into mining pools (groups) for greater efficiency and the majority of these pools are located in China. This is a clear centralization of a key component of the network creating a pinch point for Bitcoin should China enforce a ban or move to shut-down these mining pools. Would this kill BTC, absolutely not but it would adversely affect it in the short-term as the network moved to rebalance its mining system.
To recap decentralization offers many advantages but attaining such a state is incredibly challenging and to date very rarely achieved.
LINK seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the structure of candles has found support within an important area of demand marked on the chart with a blue rectangle located within the price range of 1.9628 – 2.0597, the smaller figure shows a trend reversal setup, however, the price has found resistance in the blue horizontal located at 2.4909 so we could see an ABC structure approaching the support located at 2.1250, so we can see a change in trend, the price has to mark an HH above the blue horizontal mentioned above.
LINK seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see that the price falling below the blue horizontal has made a pullback confirmation bearish which should cause the price to fall towards the area of demand indicated within the chart with a blue rectangle located within the price range of 2.1250 – 2.2027, the price should find strong demand in that zone so that we can see an upward momentum to position the price above 2.4909 and we can see a change of trend.
In conclusion, the price should retreat into the price range of 2.1250 – 2.2027 creating an ABC structure which would be the beginning of a game of (EW) of the next impulse of the major figure, if the price falls below that zone of demand we should wait for the reaction of the price in the major rectangle seen in the graph of 1D, if the price falls below that zone, the downward probailities will be greater, it is advisable to wait for confirmation in any of the areas indicated in the graphs above inside the rectangles and be very attentive to the movement of the next candles in 4H and closing the daily candle.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
This past Monday, while the DOW dropped over 800 points, gold rose 1.5% and in the process hit a six year high. The gain yesterday is on top of the 15%+ gain since December. Gold has a lot going for itself these days. We are on the brink of a currency war between the US and China, the British pound may collapse if England leaves the EU and the addition tariffs imposed by Trump isn’t helping the global economy which is slowing down.
The best thing to do in these trying times is to obtain some hard assets if possible in form of gold / silver coins. The next best alternative, besides bitcoin is to invest in funds that mimic the performance of gold.
The 800 lb gorilla gold electronic traded fund is GLD. It’s the largest fund in the space with over $32 billion in assets under management.
Five month ago I talked about GLD and laid out my projected price action for GLD.
Although gold hasn’t broken out yet, from its recent consolidation,
the GLD has broken out.
But don’t chase price, usually breakouts return to origin of the break out. So for those who don’t have any exposure to gold, the chart suggests to go long on the pull back.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Thanks to ALL of you, Steemit is still alive, stabilizing and preparing for the next Bull Run !
We reached 12.2 mn visits in July 2019!
There is an important difference between total visitors to a site and unique ones. In this case the 12.2mn include the multiple times a person visited the website.
Therefore, as a good Steemian you probably connect everyday which will make you count for a total of 30 visits.
Therefore, how many “unique users” does Steemit has?
This is a very important question that I will try to answer later on. According to the Beta Analysis from the website I use to compile these datas, it is around 7mn (vs c.7.39mn in June) !
One quick word about the Methodology
Datas can come from multiple sources listed in the end of this post
These sources get their raw datas from companies working with them and sharing their datas in order to get access to competitor’s ones, browsers add-ons, in-app softwares which allow the Big Data to have a very large panel of users (north of 20mn) in order to statistically have the number of users/visits…
I use these raw datas to make excels tables, graphs…
I] Traffic
Daily Steemit Traffic
In January 2018, we experienced the best daily numbers at 1.5mn+; they decreased a little under 1.5mn in February. Unfortunately the daily traffic on Steemit slowed down to c.400 000 in December 2018. Let’s hope it is just a little setback
In April 2019, the average daily traffic was closer to 450k per day. In May it increased a little more.
Another, explanation could be that people spend more time on apps (Partiko, Steepshot, Dtube, Steemmonster, eSteem…) which are not accounted in this analysis.
Numbers are still low BUT it is stabilizing would be more accurate since January 2018 !
Steemit website is ranked 5,461 worldwide. In June, it was sitting at 5,316. Steemit kept on deteriorating its ranking as it ranked 1400+ last year.
Google Trends
Google Trend is an Indice based on 100, which means that 100 represents the week when most people searched for “Steemit” on Google.
Google Trends are still very low but there is hope as Bitcoin Google Trend is increasing slowly again, maybe more crypto users joining decentralized platforms?
Bitcoin Google Trend Graph
Steemit Traffic share by country
In the Top 5, the strongest traffic increase came from United-Kingdom with +5.07% visits!
Mobile Traffic is increasing compared to last month as it represents 50.1% of the total
This is increasing as it was only c.42% in January 2019
This is useful to know how people use the Steem platform. Initiatives like @partiko (mobile app), @esteemapp (mobile app), @busy.org , @appics (Instagram), @actifit , @steemhunt , @utopian-io … will probably help the community to grow on mobile phones.
Be Careful with the Number of Visits
Also, remember that if you connect from a different device (home/work computer, mobile phone, tablet) you will count as a “new visitor” on each of these devices.
So as an example, let’s say you connected at home, at work and in the subway. You would represent 3 visits out of these 1mn+ Daily Visits.
II] Marketing Mix
Organic Search is once again improving and represents 67,3% of the incoming Traffic.
Organic search is when people research on Google. As the number of quality bloggers on Steemit increase, our content has a higher probability of being listed in Google’s Top results.
Different Channels:
Direct: When you type in you Web browser www.steemit.com Mail: When you connect to steemit.com through an e-mail link Referrals: When you connect to steemit.com through a link found on another website (github…) Social: When you connect to Steemit through a Facebook, Twitter, Instagram… page or link Organic Search: When you type a search term like “Crypto” on Google and you click on one of the following steemit link proposed to you
Traffic Share Evolution since inception of this analysis
The Organic Search Strategy which means the Content Strategy is working as people come across Steemit looking for Crypto, Blog, Travel, etc… related articles.
Referring Social Pages
Youtube represented 35% of all the social platform incoming traffic. Reddit is also a strong source of new visits on the Steemit Platform. Last month, Facebook was the first Social Media to bring traffic to Steemit.com with a 32.4% contribution.
5 most searched terms on Google that leads to Steemit.com
To be honest, I don’t really get how some of these requests lead you to Steem but… it does.
What are Steemians main interests?
Gender Demographics
Age Distribution
III] Steemit website metrics
You feel a bit confused about these 3 metrics? Let me explain.
Bounce Rate is the % of people that leave the Website after just navigating on a single Webpage. The lower, the Better
Daily Pageviews per Visitor is the average number of pages a visitor opens. The Higher, the Better
Daily Time on Site is the full time a visitor spend on the website before closing the internet Webpage. The Higher the Better
Metrics improved a lot compared to last month, especially the Bounce rate and pageviews per visitor. I dot not really know how to explain it but it is quite positive. It means we have a sticky Steemian userbase that just WILL not let go ! 😀
My assumptions for July 2019
Total visits to Steemit.com: 12,2mn
Assumption of Total unique visitors in July: 6.5-7mn
Total Daily visitors: 350-370k
Assumption of Total Daily Unique visitors: 220-250k
This is a collective achievement and I would like to congratulate all of us! We need to do better and get back to the January 2018’s type of numbers.
This monthly report makes me very optimistic about STEEM’s future !
As you probably all followed, we have a new communication strategy. We have Steemit Inc. delivering on numerous fronts (including HF21). The community is continuing to build. Just look at our dapps ecosystem and the latest @steemmonsters guild release (app coming sooooon :D) or @actifit @steem-engine token !
We have so many projects that have matured, such an amazing Community and with Crypto prices bouncing we might have a chance to attract new users very soon!
Bring your friends, engage with fellow Steemians and make little Tribes !
Next BigData Analysis coming on @steemmonsters @drugwars and other cool projects !
When oil dip to a low of sub $30 in 2016 and came back from the dead, I assumed all the derivative play would follow, kind of like the tide rises all boats.
It was only when I started analyzing the relative strength of the SPDR sectors against the SPY, that I notice the energy sector didn’t follow oil and has been on this steady decline.
This means Wall Street is saying the valuation of energy companies today at $50 barrel oil is lower than the valuation of energy companies years ago at $30 barrel oil. This is a really big deal if one can connect the dots. One theme is cheap credit / junk bonds funding the expansion of the shale companies, who are having a hard time paying their debt back…this one theme has enormous consequence to the state economies of Texas, the Dakotas, etc. However, that’s another post for a different time.
Last month, I spoke about VanEck Vectors® Oil Services ETF (OIH®) which seeks to track the overall performance of U.S.-listed companies involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which include oil equipment, oil services, or oil drilling and how the chart suggest OIH is headed lower over time.
I have another ETF that I think is worth shorting is the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). XOP seeks to provide investment results corresponding to the total return performance of an index derived from the oil and gas exploration and production segment of a U.S. total market composite index. Top holdings include: HollyFrontier Corp, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corp, Hess Corp, Valero Energy Corp and Marathon Oil Corp.
XOP looks very similar to OIH, with one exception. XOP breached the monthly demand and is now at all-time lows.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, Promotion Coin began a wave one advance on May 23. The red wave one finished on July 9, and the red wave two correction ended on July 23. The red wave three advance finished on August 2, and the red wave four correction ended on August 6. If this wave count is correct, Promotion Coin should be heading next towards the August 2 peak in the red wave five.
The debate over bitcoin’s role as a “safe haven” asset hit mainstream media on Tuesday, following reports that bitcoin’s recent price run could be attributed to Chinese capital flight.
Speaking with CNBC on Tuesday, businessman and co-host of NBC’s “Shark Tank” Kevin O’Leary and Morgan Creek Digital’s Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano took opposing sides in the conversation. Pompliano is a well-known bitcoin bull, while O’Leary played the role of skeptic.
Over the course of the conversation, Pompliano said over half of his net worth now resides in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by total value. O’Leary sought to describe the investment strategy as foolish in return.
“In any one stock, never more than 5 percent, in any one sector, never more than 20 percent,” O’Leary said. “I teach this stuff! You never go beyond concentrations of that nature! Fifty percent! Shame on you! That’s nuts!”
Responding to bitcoin’s role as a safe haven, Pompliano said the asset is negatively correlated with every other major asset class.
“[Morgan Creek Digital] has been banging the drum for over a year now saying that this is a non-correlated asymmetric asset. If you look at times of global instability like in May, where we are lobbing tariff threats and the trade wars are going on, bitcoin is up 55 percent. It’s got a negative correlation, -0.9 to S&P negative -0.8 to gold.”
Crypto lending startup BlockFi received $18.3 million in a Series A funding round led by Valar Ventures, the company announced Tuesday.
Valar, which was founded in part by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, was joined by Winklevoss Capital, Galaxy Digital, ConsenSys, Akuna Capital, Susquehanna, CMT Digital, Morgan Creek, Avon Ventures and PJC. Valar’s investment was its first in the cryptocurrency industry following prior investments in other fintech firms like Transferwise, a press release said.
According to a company statement, BlockFi plans on using the capital for additions to its product line up. The firm’s premier product, yield-bearing bitcoin deposits, launched in March. Besides deposits, BlockFi offers cryptocurrency-backed loans.
According to fintech-focused media outlet Coindesk, industry sources said that the agency has sent letters to at least three crypto exchanges in the U.K., including Coinbase, eToro, and CEX.io, requesting that they provide lists of users and transaction data.
HMRC is reportedly aiming to cooperate with crypto exchanges in a bid to identify individuals who evade taxes. According to the cited sources, the agency will probably only go back two or three years:
“If they [HMRC] do only go back two or three years, I think the interesting thing here is, that the individuals who went into crypto very early on in 2012-13 will not be affected. The ones who probably made the largest gains won’t be affected, it will be the people who came in around the time crypto peaked.”
Here is a quick post to tell you that I am doubling up on STEEM. One of the reasons is HF21 (find all the info from @steemitblog‘s post here) but this is neither the only one or the most important.
I think HF21 has its flows, yes it redistributes more to SP holder, but through this it will bring more investors, therefore more Buying pressure and a better STEEM Price I Believe.
More curation rewards also means more attention spent by SP Holder to curate content of quality. This would be beneficial to the entire STEEM Community.
In the end, what is the point to have 75% of your posts STEEM rewards / SBD if they are valued at a few cents, wouldn’t it be better to have 50% of a post valued a few $$$?
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”) hopes to open a London office “very soon” as the crypto exchange turns its focus to Europe. Brexit won’t hurt and if anything will be good for crypto, he predicts.
On Facebook’s Libra project, CZ anticipates practical benefits from potentially listing the coin, and also hinted at further collaboration.
The forthcoming Binance.US is working with the usual suspects among crypto’s reliable banking partners.
CZ calls crypto insurance a “flawed concept.” Binance instead dedicates 10 percent of its $100 million in quarterly revenues to its internal “SAFU fund.”
“The AMA will go live on the 7th of August, 5 PM UTC.”
STEEM Trading Update by my friend @cryptopassion
Here is the chart of yersterday :
Here is the current chart :
As expected, we are now testing the support line at 0.21$. It was foreseen in my previous posts and yeah it is happening… Not a good news but it is life, what can we do… So yeah, this support line is a major support line and as I explained yesterday, if we break this support, I think we will really go deeper… If you are thinking about buying new STEEM because it is SALE price, I suggest you to wait the results of the current test because if we break it, I think you will be able to buy a lot cheaper than now….
Liberland recognized the Republic of Somaliland and signed a Memorandum of Understanding with it. We support the country as the recognition is long overdue.
