Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 02 September

In “BTC analysis – 26 August” I updated my latest thoughts on Bitcoin’s medium-term movements. Since then a price reversal in the $9300s has forced a reassessment of that situation.

Previously I spoke of a bull flag. That flag was forming in a descending channel and was adhering to diagonal Fib levels as it did so, something like this:

But what appeared to be a series of higher lows caused me to reconsider and change the flag into a pennant, as seen in my BTC post last week:

Now things have changed again – or at least may be about to change.

The price movements of this last weekend may have altered the bull pennant into a more bearish converging triangle pattern.

At this stage we require a confirmation move, which we will get, one way or another.

Scenarios:

The chart below shows the two main scenarios that we may now be dealing with.

In Scenario 1 BTC is forming a converging triangle with a near-horizontal base. Scenario 1 will be confirmed if price continues to rise to about $11000.

In Scenario 2 BTC is still in a descending channel. Scenario 2 will be confirmed if BTC ceases to rise well short of $11000 and then falls below $9300 for a sustained period (more than just a few hours).

Scenario 1

If Scenario 1 is correct then it is most likely that BTC price will remain in the triangle until the final quarter of 2019, after which it will probably break downwards. We can see that a downwards break is more likely, because a flat-bottomed triangle is an indication that support is continually being tested. Eventually that support “runs out” (as buy orders are filled and traders decline to place new orders that high in a market which is turning bearish). In addition to that, most momentum indicators (such as the MACD, RSI or long-term MAs) will show that momentum is becoming/has become negative. Most telling of all is the volume, which is still steadily declining.

In the likely even that BTC does break out of this (unconfirmed) triangle in a downwards direction, the big question will be “How Low?”
Recent support lies in the high $7000s/low $8000s. That is enough to catch the dip, but don’t get a shock if it fails to hold there. If support breaks, then the next recent support level only lies at $5600 and below. I think that any dip that low will be very short lived. If you do see BTC that low then buy like crazy! Between the high $7000s and $5600 is another possible support level in the mid to low $6000s. This is the support level established in 2018, though its continued existence is uncertain because:

  1. It broke conclusively in November 2018.
  2. No resistance was encountered at that level when BTC climbed through it in May of 2019.

After the dip, we can expect a rapid recover and then a steady climb along the long-term base trendline for BTC – until the market turns properly bullish and hype sets in.

Scenario 2

If Scenario 2 is correct, then BTC will most likely decrease in price all the way to the bottom of the channel. Since the channel is downwards sloping, the price level at which BTC hits the bottom of the channel continually decreases over time. Were price to reach the bottom of the channel today, then it would be at around $8000. But if it only reaches it a month from now, then it will be in the mid-$7000s.

Scenario 2 is still reminiscent of a bull flag, which means that it precedes a swift increase in price after hitting the channel bottom. It is unlikely that price would then bounce up and down for yet another cycle within the channel, that would be too unusual.

Likelihood

I consider Scenario 1 to be a very likely Scenario. I allocate a probability of 55% to Scenario 1.
Scenario 2 is not very likely anymore. I allocate a probability of 20 % to Scenario 2.
The remaining 25% is for “something else” – an as yet unforeseen price movement or variation of one of the above scenarios.

Conclusion

Whatever happens, I am predicting a relatively bearish two or three months. I think we will see a decent sized dip soon. I have been waiting with Buy orders in the $8000s for a few weeks now. Depending on what happens next, I will consider shifting some or all of those orders a bit lower, and/or perhaps placing additional Buy orders at even lower prices.

I do not see the market really picking up before December 2019 at the earliest, but on the other hand, I’m predicting a stellar (not Lumens) 2020 for BTC and crypto in general! For now I will continue to stack little bits of BTC if I can afford it, AND ALTCOINS! There is blood on the streets, this is the time to accumulate alts!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:






Wolves is still trying not to give way

Everton played home against wolves. But Everton was able to take home the lead by 3-2 against Wolve. During the match, Everton took the lead by 2 goals to 0 but wolves came back slowly equalizing like the way they did to Manchester United and finally equalized all the goals making it 2-2. Then within some time Everton showed them that they can played ball with them because they are not manchester United so they added one to it to take home the 3 points from wolves it was such a great game to watch. Now it has become difficult you us to predict the kind of team to win because the epl has really become tough and no team should under estimate any team because if you dont take care they will disgrace you.

Nice Come Back From Arsenal

Hello everyone, Good day. Yesterday was a day for football matches. Arsenal was able to redeem themselves fast from the defeat they had in the first half of the game. Tottenham scored them 2-0 down. Harry Kane scored the second goal which was a penalty. At the end of the Match the come back worked well for the Arsenal team as they came back from the back to score 2 goals making 2-2. And sharing the points with tottenham. Actually I taught they have lost the match since they are down by 2 goals. This season epl is really tough because if the team is down by any number of goals they can come back and equalize making it a draw for both teams and if you dont take care they will even win the match. Thank you for your time have a great week.

clouds at dusk dramatic

Photography editing, Clouds – which 1 do you prefer?

clouds at dusk 2
clouds 2 (original)

Both images taken with Taken with Fuji – X-E1. The bottom picture is the original . It was then processed in photoshop cs6 using auto colour correction.
I can usually decide on 1 image if i have multiple images similar but on this occasion i cant make up my mind up which to choose.
when i cant decide i usually print both and put them on the wall and look at them over the next few days.
At the moment i still can’t decide, both have their own quality.

Please comment which image you prefer. 🙂

#SPUD5: The Continuous Compounding

and yes!!!

BITVAVO’s withdrawal received at my wallet, 300 STEEM for 45 Euros!!!! Not bad at all, and the best of all with super tiny fee 12 cents!!!

Now I have fully certified my audit on BITVAVO exchange, they are reliable, fast and secure besides having unsurpassed fees. Next step will be to test them the other way around, so withdrawing CASH from them but it will be another story and not for the near future…first we all want to see STEEM at its best!!!

But this has not been the end of my #SPUD journey today.

Then, I have reviewed my earnings at Steem-Engine wallet, obtaining 40 STEEM more…

Converting some SBD to STEEM as well…

and finally powering up the whole STEEM liquid of my wallet today.

In total, a little more than 364 STEEM powered up which is a sudden increase of 5.2% of my STEEM POWER!!!

This is the power of compounding, trade, invest in some nice tribes tokens, work, engage and get rewards…

and, What better time to do it if it isn’t now at #newsteem?

Thanks to @streetstyle for this nice initiative!

Steem on!

@toofasteddie

The Use of Mobile Phones in the Business Industry

It is very right saying illiteracy is one of the major problems why the adoption and use of mobile phones technology for the business world mainly in Africa has been suffering a great setback compared to other developed countries. Come to think of it, Don’t it seem like the use of mobile phones technology in the business world in Africa will be a formidable force to reckon with in Africa in the nearest future?

Ask me why! The reason being that you would notice these new generation of African youths are already making use of mobile phones technology to build businesses. They use it for advertisement purposes mainly. Quite a lot of them act as influencers who influences customers to patronize a business. Left to me, I think I see a bright future here. In conclusion, our governments can also be of help by making the price of phone cheaper. Thanks for sharing.

Plastic, plastic everywhere but not for African recyclers

Plastic, plastic everywhere but not for African recyclers (Reuters)

  • As in many developing countries, Kenya’s recycling industry is underdeveloped and relies heavily on the private sector, which has slowed plastic recycling initiatives, as the plastic collection business generates low margins
  • As a result, multinational firms like Coca-Cola and Unilever are subsidizing the collection of their PET through the non-for-profit body called PETCO whose members reportedly account for 60% of the PET market.
  • Additionally, Coca-Cola, Nestlé, Unilever and Diageo have formed the African plastic recycling alliance last March to create recycling initiatives.

Analysis and Comments

  • The article showcases the two main issues the plastics recycling industries in most countries are faced with; 1) an underdeveloped collection and recycling infrastructure, and 2) the subsequent lack of recyclable materials to sustain their businesses.
  • While a growing number of governments has already begun to take action (e.g. in the form of bans), more incentives from governments are needed to boost participation in recycling schemes (or, for example, to set up deposit schemes which have shown to be very successful in the EU) and to hold companies legally responsible for the collection of their waste.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 44

Study hard what interests you the most in the most undisciplined, irreverent and original manner possible.
Richard Feynmann

The purpose of this weekly series is to recap some of the interesting ideas and concepts across a wide range of disciplines which each and every week in crypto seems to throw up. This ‘learners paradise’ is a great space to explore but also asks a lot of those who delve into it.

Got a grasp on basic programming logic, how about Austrian economics, or quantum computing or precisely how hashing algorithms underpin blockchains? Taking a moment to reflect or recap on the recent concepts and ideas crossing the crypto landscape can be very beneficial whether you are a hardcore day trader or just exploring a casual interest in the space.

It’s important to note that not every idea here reflects my own bias or opinion. If it’s here, it’s because it made me think.


Picks of the Week

In addition to this excellent comparison of EOS and ETH, this sobering take on the current state of the crypto landscape and the challenges facing any decentralized project is well worth thinking on. Five levels of explanation on the topic of Quantum computing is another highlight.


Twitter

A different take on BTC market capitalization:
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1165822410542723072

Ripple replies to selling into market tag:
https://twitter.com/bgarlinghouse/status/1166455842238943232

A BTC thought:
https://twitter.com/barrygilliand/status/1167232120093401094

200K BNB – took 16 seconds to lend:
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1166598696999497730

Cash bans are pending whether you live in the West or the East:
https://twitter.com/VentureCoinist/status/1166529833519734784

A rough average of purchase points for holders of some of the top cryptos:
https://twitter.com/crypto_bobby/status/1166435397116801030

A likely Brexit outcome – no but worth thinking on:
https://twitter.com/TamasBlummer/status/1167325252180795394


Articles

Inflation is beginning to really hurt (the valuation of) some major crypto projects:
https://messari.substack.com/p/the-race-to-zero

Grim take on the state of decentralization (recommended but I wouldn’t take it all at face value):
https://medium.com/futuresin/rip-decentralization-ae2d13417da7

A well researched and thorough comparison of EOS v Ethereum networks (highly recommended):
https://hackernoon.com/eos-market-cap-will-soon-exceed-ethereum-e75873q3m

A brief review of blockchain token models:
https://medium.com/ontologynetwork/an-introduction-to-token-models-in-the-blockchain-world-fc1f3450969c

Moving beyond blockchain isolationism:
https://medium.com/the-liquidapps-blog/blockchain-maximalism-fighting-coin-cultism-through-interoperability-ethereum-eos-fd9e7b970e8e

How did the US-China trade dispute get to this point?:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/how-the-u-s-china-trade-war-got-to-this-point-quicktake


Podcast

Another wide-ranging discussion of cryptography and a range of blockchain mechanisms/issues (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/silvio-micali-founder-algorand-history-cryptography/id1434060078?i=1000446699688

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/silvio-micali-founder-algorand-history-cryptography/id1434060078?i=1000446699688


A brief exploration of the tenets of Austrian economics and its relationship to crypto, in particular, Bitcoin maximalism.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-austrian-economics-and-crypto/id1441492450?i=1000448064083


YouTube

An optimistic take on recessions/hyper-growth/universal basic income (recommended):


Analysing the current BTC pullback (recommended):


Ethereum focused platforms that pay interest on your crypto (use with caution):


Colin on difficulties facing both EOS and Ethereum:


Quantum computing – graded explanations (recommended):


Infographic

BTC market dominance may, in fact, be a lot higher than CoinMarketCap indicates:

https://arcane.no/#reports


Website / Utility

Stay up to date on EOS airdrops and airgrabs (yes they still happen):

https://eosnewswire.one/eos-airdrops-and-airgrabs/

That’s a wrap on another compelling week in crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.